To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 

Market Context and Current Position

I’m tracking $NVDA at $176.95 as the stock works through a 13 to 14% November recalibration. What stands out is how the Nasdaq held firm without Nvidia setting the tone. That shift tells me positioning has relaxed from the hyper concentration we saw earlier this year. This decoupling arrives as investors digest hyperscaler capex expectations for 2026, fresh TPU commercialisation signals from Google and a detailed SemiAnalysis breakdown that dropped only hours ago.

Analyst conviction remains unwavering. Consensus from more than 70 firms sits around Strong Buy or Outperform with an average target close to $254.80, which implies roughly 41% upside from today’s price. The high estimate stretches to $432.78, while the low sits near $140. Vijay Rakesh reiterated his $245 target and confirmed Blackwell allocations remain sold out through Q2. Citigroup’s Atif Malik lifted his target to $270 and added that inference demand continues to support the medium term trajectory even with export headwinds.

Volatility, Flow, and Positioning

Implied volatility is cooling across the entire term structure. At the money IV has declined from more than 60% last week to beneath 50% today. Thursday alone produced a 12 to 13% vol slide. The smile has flattened and tail pricing has eased. This tells me the market is reducing crash premia rather than building directional fear.

Gamma exposure flipped positive intraday, which keeps dealers positioned to support call driven drift instead of reinforcing put walls. Net GEX fell earlier in the week but stabilised today. DEX also eased, which removes hedging friction from the near term tape. I’m watching flow clusters at $180 and $185. More than 26,000 contracts traded on the $185C line last Thursday with institutions rotating into the Dec 12 extension. That line now carries over $8.2M in notional exposure. The traders who entered early earned around 50% at peak. Tomorrow’s open interest tells me whether they hold, roll or unwind.

Put flow also rose on the Dec 5 $155P where a whale closed roughly $2M in premium. That is not a posture you take if you expect a structural breakdown. Dark pool indications add weight to the picture. Friday printed $3.38B in NVDA off exchange flows, which exceeded even $QQQ. A 5.2M share block at $181.15 shows institutional conviction at the higher end of the current band. NVDA also led single stock open interest builds ahead of $TSLA and $AMZN, according to Unusual Whales. The market is staging for movement, not withdrawal.

Technical Structure Across Timeframes

The 4H structure maps as a descending wedge with compression building between the Keltner Bands and the 55 EMA near $184.20. The October peak at $207 remains the macro ceiling. Price has tested the lower rail around $172.50 to $172.93 three times this week, and each probe stalled. That area aligns with volume weighted average price floors and serves as the strongest short term support.

On the 30m chart I’m seeing clear signs of downside exhaustion. Each push lower has printed diminishing volume, which usually marks corrective maturity rather than the start of a fresh trend. The Keltner midline around $178.40 keeps acting as the intraday pivot. RSI divergence at 38 is also building. I treat this as reactive selling with decaying energy rather than directional conviction.

A break above $184.20 followed by a push into $189.50 would be my first confirmation that momentum is turning. A move beneath $172.50 with rising IV would shift my expectations toward a deeper retest of the $160 gamma wall.

Competitive Pressure and TPUv7 Dynamics

The competitive landscape is shifting, and I’m treating Google’s TPUv7 Ironwood as a legitimate alternative within specific training and inference stacks. SemiAnalysis outlined how TPUv7 delivers a fourfold leap over TPUv6 with tighter memory paths and power efficiency advantages. More importantly, at rack scale, the total cost of ownership lands 30 to 50% below Nvidia’s GB200 or GB300 systems because Google avoids Nvidia’s system margin and benefits from ASIC tuned inference.

Realised FLOPs tell the real story. TPUv7 hits around 85% utilisation on inference heavy workloads. Hopper sustains around 80%. Blackwell lands between 70 and 75% once power ceilings and DVFS are applied. AMD’s MI300 emerges at 50 to 60%. The gap between TPUv7 and Blackwell narrows more than headline FLOP marketing suggests.

This is not just a technical debate. It is anchored in real orders. Anthropic’s 1.2M unit TPUv7 commitment tied to a 1.1GW Ohio build is a structural pivot for workloads above one trillion parameters. Meta is in billion scale TPU talks for 2027 integration. These moves already influenced pricing. Q3 reports show hyperscalers received 5 to 7% fleet discounts on Nvidia hardware due to competitive pressure.

This does not break CUDA lock in, but it compresses Nvidia’s data centre gross margins toward 72 to 75% through 2026 and 2027, compared with the 82% the street pencilled in. With NVDA trading around 45x 2026 EPS, leadership still commands a premium, but multiple expansion depends on Rubin sampling successfully in H2 2026.

Macro and Sentiment

Macro remains constructive. Core PCE is trending toward 2.1% into Q1. Fed futures still price a 25bps cut by March. Liquidity conditions favour high beta tech, and year end seasonality historically adds 8 to 12% upside for Nvidia heading into January. Export restraints on China remain a 5% revenue drag, but Southeast Asia ramps and TSMC’s Arizona expansion offset some of the friction.

Levels I’m Tracking

Support

$172.50 to $172.93: validated reactive floor

$160.00: GEX put gamma wall

$155.00 to $158.00: short term sentiment flush zone

Resistance

$181.15: dark pool pivot

$184.20 to $189.50: EMA reclaim and wedge apex

$197.00 to $203.00: momentum confirmation band

$212.00: macro extension level

Watchlist and Forward Scenarios

Tomorrow’s open interest change on the Dec 12 $185C is my primary tell. A hold above $8.5M signals accumulation. A decline implies rotation or profit taking. If IV slides beneath 48% and $NVDA holds above $172.93, I anticipate stabilisation toward $185. Microsoft’s inference commentary on 03 Dec will influence short term expectations for Blackwell order momentum.

Lose $172.93 with rising IV and the $160 zone becomes the next logical magnet.

Conclusion

I’m treating this period as a valuation recalibration influenced by credible competition and realistic capex expectations, not a structural break. Flow, IV behaviour, dark pool prints and gamma exposure suggest tactical opportunity. Google’s TPUv7 push tightens the competitive field without derailing Nvidia’s leadership in inference and ecosystem depth. I map Nvidia’s 2026 growth path at roughly 55% CAGR with a 2 to 3% incremental share bleed. A return toward $200 requires hyperscalers to confirm spend visibility within the next sixty days.

I’ll keep updating as open interest shifts, block prints surface and TPU economics evolve.

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