To The Moon

Core Conclusion: After the Gold-Silver Ratio broke above 105 in April 2025, it rapidly retreated. The current level of 68 remains above the historical average of 58. Looking at history and reviewing the patterns from the past four "above 100" episodes, silver may still have several months of gains ahead from December 2025 through mid-year 2026. $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ 's pace and magnitude of gains are expected to exceed $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ 's rise. Time to seize more allocation?

$Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2603(QImain)$ has gained 64% since breaking to new highs since June this year.

I. What is the Gold-Silver Ratio? Why Does It Matter Now?

The Gold-Silver Ratio (GTS) = Gold price ÷ Silver price. It measures the relative value between the two metals. A declining ratio means silver is rising faster than gold.

Current Gold-Silver Ratio quote: around 68

https://www.chards.co.uk/

25-year chart, https://www.chards.co.uk/

Key Facts:

• April 7, 2025: Ratio hit 104.71, marking the fifth time breaking above 100 in a century

• June 2025: Silver broke through $36/oz (13-year high), ratio quickly fell back to 93

• December 2025: 14-year technical support: Between 2011-2025, the ratio found support multiple times in the 65-70 zone. June 2025's break below this support was the first since 2011

Some overseas analysts predict a drop to around 58 first.

@hajiyev_rashad

PS: How to verify data?

• Check real-time Gold-Silver Ratio data: TradingView, Macrotrends

• Check industrial demand data: SolarPower Europe's Global Solar Market Outlook, IEA's Global Electric Vehicle Outlook

II. Historical Pattern Review: Four "Above 100" Scenarios

In 1980, silver surged wildly, pushing the Gold-Silver Ratio down to 15.8 (historical low). Back then, silver was called "the poor man's gold," with stable industrial demand but weak investment appeal, resulting in low ratio volatility.

Think of gold and silver as two brothers—the Gold-Silver Ratio is their "height difference."

Silver's Four "Above 100 Comeback" Scripts:

1. 1991 Soviet Union Dissolution: Cold War ended, global panic, gold rush. Ratio: broke 100 for ~1 month. Silver rose 42% in the following 4 months, ratio fell back below 80.

2. 2008 Financial Crisis: Lehman bankruptcy, manufacturing PMI crashed to historical low of 36.2. Ratio: soared from 60 to 110:1 for 9 months. Silver plummeted 54% from $21 to $9.6. But after Fed QE in 2009, it skyrocketed 400% to $49 in 3 years, with the ratio dropping to as low as 31. (During liquidity crises, silver falls harder than gold, but recovers 10x faster during rebound periods)

3. 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic: Institutions panic-sold all assets; silver was disproportionally hit due to industrial attributes. Ratio peaked at 123.5, an all-time high. Subsequent Fed money printing + economic recovery expectations highlighted gold's monetary attributes while silver's volatility increased due to industrial demand fluctuations. Silver outgained gold in H2 2020. Repair from "above 100" took only 4 months.

4. 2025 Trade Friction (105→In Progress): Tariff wars and geopolitical conflicts triggered gold rush; silver always "lags half a step" due to industrial demand uncertainty. Gold gained 44% YTD, ratio peaked at 105.26 in April, fell back to 93 by June. Highly similar to 1991, 2003, and 2020 patterns—gold takes off first, silver chases later.

Iron Laws:

• Repair method is always silver surging: Gold typically rises only 5-15%; silver's gains are 2-5x gold's

• Repair duration correlates with crisis depth: Liquidity crises (e.g., 2008) repair slowly; sentiment crises (e.g., 2020) repair quickly. 2025 resembles 2020, expected to complete major repair in 4-9 months

• Entry timing: Best to enter within 1-2 months after breaking above 100. Currently in the "silver breakout confirmation period"

III. Core Investment Vehicles: ETF & Individual Stock Data (as of Dec 10, 2025)

Physical Silver ETFs

Key Differences: SIVR has lowest fees, SLV has best liquidity, PSLV allows physical redemption (100 oz minimum).

Silver Miners ETFs (Amplified Volatility)

Key: Mining ETFs deliver larger gains during silver rallies, but 2025 has already priced in some expectations. Current valuations are relatively high; consider entering after a 5-8% pullback.

Key Individual Stocks (Pure Plays)

Allocation Reference (For Discussion Only):

• Conservative (<10% drawdown tolerance): 80% physical ETFs + 20% large mining stocks

• Balanced (20% drawdown tolerance): 50% physical ETFs + 30% mining ETFs + 20% individual stocks

• Aggressive (30%+ drawdown tolerance): 30% physical ETFs + 40% mining ETFs + 30% individual stocks

Esther's Summary

The Gold-Silver Ratio breaking below 14-year support is a signal for silver's medium-term catch-up rally, but not a guarantee of overnight riches. History doesn't repeat itself simply, but it often rhymes—this time it's rhyming with 2003 and 2020.