To The Moon

Deutsche Bank macro strategist Jim Reid recently put forward a highly counterintuitive view: after years of shocks—from the pandemic and surging inflation to abrupt policy pivots—the most surprising outcome ahead might actually be no surprises at all.

Yet right after that, Deutsche Bank laid out 10 “black swan pathways” that could fundamentally alter the direction of global markets—ranging from an AI-driven, 1990s-style boom to an AI bubble bursting alongside a debt crisis, covering nearly every extreme scenario imaginable.

The 10 potential market-changing paths include:

• AI drives the U.S. back to high growth:
  A surge in AI capital spending boosts productivity, pushing U.S. annualized growth back above 4%, echoing the late-1990s boom.

• S&P 500 rallies toward 8,000:
  Fueled by AI optimism and liquidity, U.S. equities extend their gains, delivering ~17% annual returns, with 8,000 still within the long-term trend.

• Aggressive Fed easing delivers a “soft landing”:
  The Fed cuts rates at the fastest pace in a non-recession period since the 1980s (cumulative cuts exceeding 175 bps), curbing inflation without triggering a downturn.

• Global trade tensions ease more than expected:
  Driven by political incentives such as midterm elections, the U.S. could expand tariff exemptions.

• European reform success and fading geopolitical risks:
  Effective German fiscal stimulus could lift Europe’s economy, while progress toward a ceasefire in the Russia–Ukraine conflict would significantly boost European asset prices.

• The Fed is forced to hike again to fight inflation:
  If inflation remains stubbornly above target, the Fed may reverse course and unexpectedly raise rates, overturning current market pricing.

• AI bubble bursts and leverage unravels:
  If AI leaders (e.g., Nvidia) miss earnings expectations, lofty valuations may prove unsustainable. With leverage already high, this could trigger cascading sell-offs.

• U.S. and Japanese sovereign debt crises:
  Markets may question the sustainability of U.S. “wartime-level” deficits. If Japan’s low-inflation belief collapses, JGB sell-offs and capital flight could follow.

• European political and economic crises reinforce each other:
  Ineffective German stimulus and worsening political deadlock in France could create negative feedback loops, driving up risk premiums and capital outflows.

• Extreme physical-world disasters:
  Such as a new pandemic, major solar flares, or a supervolcanic eruption.

So in 2026, will markets really stay calm—or is this just the calm before the storm?

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Below are the most hotly debated forecasts:

Forecast 1: Will the AI bubble burst in 2026?

🐂 Bull case (DB’s optimistic path):

• AI capex genuinely translates into productivity gains, pushing U.S. growth back above 4%.

🐻 Bear case (market fears):

• AI applications hit bottlenecks; LLM hallucination issues intensify; the Transformer architecture is questioned. Nvidia and other leaders miss earnings, and high valuations plus high leverage trigger a chain reaction of selling.

Forecast 2: Can U.S. stocks go wild for another year, or is the top in?

🐂 Bull case:

• Liquidity and earnings reinforce each other, sending the S&P 500 toward 8,000.

🐻 Bear case:

• The S&P peaks around 7,500 before a sharp sell-off; Nvidia drops 50% on a yearly basis, and the Nasdaq falls 35% for the year.

Forecast 3: Will the Fed deliver “gentle cuts,” or policy whiplash?

🐂 Bull case:

• Aggressive easing without a recession—175 bps+ in cumulative cuts—successfully achieves a soft landing.

🐻 Bear case:

• Inflation proves persistent, leading to a stop-and-go pattern of “three cuts, then one hike,” completely disrupting market pricing.

Forecast 4: Gold—ultimate safe haven or a cyclical top?

🐂 Bull case:

• Credit risk and geopolitical uncertainty push gold toward $5,000 or even higher.

🐻 Bear case:

• Gold tops out near $4,900, then retreats as high real rates weigh on prices, entering a choppy phase and ending the year lower.

Which scenario do you think is most likely to actually happen in 2026?

• An AI bubble bursting

• Gold breaking above $5,000

• U.S. equities hitting new highs

• Repeated Fed policy reversals

• Or… “nothing happens”

Leave your comments about 2026 predictions to win tiger coins~