TSM Leads Semi Surge! How Will Intel Close Next Week?
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ delivered a blowout Q4 earnings report, beating expectations across revenue, margins and profits, and pushing the stock to new highs.
📊 TSMC Q4 Highlights (Beat Across the Board)
Revenue: TWD 1.05T (vs. 1.02T est.)
Gross Margin: 62.3% (vs. 60.6%)
Net Income: TWD 505.7B (vs. 475.2B)
TSM has now climbed to become the 6th largest company globally by market cap.
Revenue reached TWD 1.05 trillion, gross margin came in at 62.3%, and net income exceeded forecasts, lifting TSM into the position of the world’s 6th-largest company by market cap.
Semiconductor Stocks Jump
The impact quickly spread across the semiconductor sector.
$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ saw its market cap break above $500 billion, while U.S. chip stocks rallied in sympathy. $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ jumped nearly 6%, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ gained about 2%. The AI trade, which had shown signs of fatigue earlier, was clearly reignited.
Management pushed back against the “AI bubble” narrative and guided for $52–56 billion in capex, with 70–80% earmarked for advanced manufacturing, reinforcing confidence in sustained AI-driven demand into 2026.
💬 Intel Is Next
Attention now turns to $Intel(INTC)$, which reports earnings after market close on Jan 22. The stock is already up about 30% year-to-date, but consensus still points to YoY declines in revenue and profits.
Historically, Intel’s post-earnings moves have been volatile, making the upcoming report a key test of whether improving manufacturing narratives can outweigh near-term earnings pressure.
Institutions’ price targets for $Intel(INTC)$
UBS | PT $49 | Neutral
Sees solid near-term support from PC and server demand and raised its price target. However, UBS views the year as a mixed, gradual recovery phase, with the 14A process more of a medium- to long-term narrative than an immediate driver.
Citi | PT $50 | Upgraded to Neutral
Believes Intel is entering an AI foundry window of opportunity, benefiting from tight advanced packaging capacity at TSMC and government support. That said, Citi cautions on potential CPU share losses and continued weakness in PC demand.
KeyBanc | PT $60 | Overweight
The most bullish among the group. Points to strong AI data-center demand, meaningful progress in Intel’s manufacturing business, and server CPU capacity that is nearly sold out for the year, supporting potential price increases.
RBC Research | PT $50 | Initiation
Acknowledges cost cuts, balance-sheet improvement, and the strategic partnership with NVIDIA. However, RBC sees near-term upside constrained by margin pressure and manufacturing execution risks, noting that Intel still trails peers in AI data centers.
How do you think INTC will move after earnings?
Comment:
🟢 A. Up more than 5%
🟡 B. Range-bound (-5% to +5%)
🔴 C. Down more than 5%
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從歷史上看，英特爾的財報發佈後走勢一直不穩定，這使得即將發佈的報告成爲衡量制造業敘事改善能否超過近期盈利壓力的關鍵考驗。
收入達到1.05萬億新臺幣，毛利率爲62.3%，淨利潤超出預期，使TSM躋身按市值計算，全球第六大公司.
That’s why Intel $Intel(INTC)$ feels like a tougher test. The stock is already up around 30% YTD, expectations on manufacturing progress have been pulled forward, and yet consensus still points to year-over-year declines in both revenue and profits. When expectations run ahead of fundamentals, the margin for disappointment gets very thin.
So my pick is 🔴 C. Down more than 5%. After such a strong pre-earnings run, Intel likely needs near-perfect execution to hold gains, and anything less could trigger a classic “sell the news” move.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub
Reason: Intel is still in an “expectations reset” phase, so unless guidance is a clear upside shock (AI PC demand, margins, foundry progress), the market likely treats earnings as a checkpoint, not a breakout catalyst. A big move (>5%) usually needs either a major guide-up (A) or a sharp miss / weak outlook (C).