To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Intel(INTC)$  I’m tracking $AMD approaching its longest consecutive daily win streak in nearly 20 years, pressing into territory last seen in 2005. This is not short-term momentum noise. This reflects relative-strength leadership driven by execution credibility, competitive displacement, institutional accumulation, and sustained capital migration inside semiconductors.

Over the past decade, capital allocation outcomes have been decisive.

$NVDA +27,378%, $AMD +11,320%, $INTC +58%.

That performance gap reflects execution discipline, roadmap delivery, margin structure, and strategic relevance across compute cycles.

$AMD is higher again today, up ~3%, following Intel’s admission that its turnaround remains a multi-year process constrained by supply limitations, manufacturing friction, and CPU demand headwinds. JPMorgan frames this as incremental runway for AMD to capture CPU and server share, particularly across data centre, hyperscale, and enterprise workloads, where delivery reliability and platform competitiveness are increasingly being repriced.

Aletheia reiterated a constructive view on AMD’s server CPU business, modelling F26E revenue of $14.5B, up 42% YoY from $10.2B in F25E, driven by 27% unit growth and 11% ASP expansion. Recent feedback from cloud service providers and memory suppliers suggests server demand conditions may exceed current bullish assumptions, reinforcing AMD’s structural share-gain trajectory.

Consecutive gain history places this move in statistically rare territory, while the 4H structure continues to confirm trend integrity. Price remains supported by rising EMA alignment, sustained upper-band volatility expansion, positive momentum carry, and trend persistence without breakdown behaviour, signalling institutional sponsorship rather than speculative churn.

Dealer gamma positioning remains supportive, with call-side exposure dampening downside reflexivity, reducing forced hedging pressure and allowing uptrend continuation with lower drawdown sensitivity.

Vanna dynamics remain constructive, with implied volatility compressing on strength, reinforcing upside stability rather than destabilising price action.

🧠💧 Liquidity pockets continue forming above prior resistance, signalling acceptance of higher value zones rather than exhaustion, with flow migration confirming AMD as the primary execution proxy within the semiconductor complex.

This increasingly reflects a structural leadership transition, not a transient momentum burst.

🧩 $INTC prints its worst trading session since Aug-2024 as credibility reprices

$INTC is down ~15–16% intraday, marking its most severe drawdown since August 2024, following earnings that reinforced margin compression, roadmap uncertainty, manufacturing execution risk, and extended turnaround timelines.

Intel Q4’25 results showed Adj. EPS of $0.15 vs $0.08 est., and Revenue of $13.7B vs $13.41B est., but profitability and forward guidance deteriorated.

Adj. gross margin fell to 37.9%, down 4.2 ppts YoY.

Q1’26 guidance disappointed across the board:

Revenue $11.7B–$12.7B vs $12.56B est.

Adj. EPS $0.00 vs $0.05 est.

Adj. gross margin 34.5% vs 36.5% est.

Segment performance remained uneven.

Client Computing Group $8.2B, down -7% YoY

DCAI $4.7B, up +9% YoY, but insufficient to offset margin and execution pressure.

Intel noted near-term supply tightness in Q1, improving into Q2, while highlighting first Intel 18A product milestones. However, execution risk remains the central debate.

BofA reiterated an Underperform rating on $INTC with a $40 price target, arguing the stock is trading ahead of Intel’s ability to deliver a competitive and profitable business model. Vivek Arya highlighted yield risk at 18A, questioning whether Intel can credibly serve external foundry customers at 14A without proven execution, scale, or foundry track record. Even with incremental foundry revenue, BofA models only 3–7% annual sales growth over the next three years, maintaining a 3.5× CY27E EV/S valuation framework.

📉🧠 Options flow, gamma exposure, vanna sensitivity, and volatility term structure signal downside reflexivity

Options markets are flashing clear PUT skew and downside-premium demand, with traders prioritising protection over upside convexity.

Front-dated implied volatility has surged, while longer-dated volatility remains comparatively anchored, signalling the market is pricing near-term instability rather than a structural volatility regime shift.

Dealer gamma exposure skews negative, increasing the probability of trend-reinforcing downside rather than mean-reverting stabilisation. As price weakens, negative gamma amplifies momentum continuation and liquidity-vacuum effects.

Vanna dynamics suggest limited volatility relief, meaning downside pressure is less likely to self-dampen in the near term, reinforcing defensive positioning, hedging demand, and capital risk reduction, not dip-buying conviction.

🕰️📊 Post-earnings behavioural structure implies continued downside drift risk

Historically, when $INTC misses earnings, price tends to trend lower across the following 5–7 bars, rather than snap-rebound.

Momentum structure confirms downside impulse dominance, while recent price behaviour suggests continued follow-through risk into next week if sentiment, dealer exposure, and capital flow continue rotating toward AMD and higher-execution semiconductor leaders.

I’m monitoring the $40–$44 range as a tactical reaction zone, while recognising downside expansion remains structurally open if flow, skew, gamma pressure, and liquidity conditions fail to stabilise.

Trump-linked visibility temporarily made $INTC a sentiment-supported trade, but fundamentals continue to dictate long-term valuation, capital allocation, and credibility. Narrative can move price briefly. Cash flow, margins, and execution ultimately determine outcomes.

$INTC is now down ~11% post-earnings, with quarterly losses expanding roughly 5×, reinforcing concerns around profitability durability, margin compression, and operating leverage erosion.

The revenue and free cash flow trajectory highlights structural strain. Revenue momentum has softened, while free cash flow has deteriorated materially, reflecting heavy capex burden, weaker margin conversion, and declining earnings quality.

This reinforces broader concerns around manufacturing execution risk, yield reliability, turnaround timeline uncertainty, and the sustainability of Intel’s business model, underscoring why valuation support remains fragile despite intermittent sentiment tailwinds.

🧬🌐 Strategic market structure and capital flow implications

$AMD is being rewarded for execution credibility, forward visibility, institutional sponsorship, and leadership in high-growth compute.

Intel is being discounted for uncertainty, delivery risk, margin pressure, roadmap slippage, manufacturing yield risk, and credibility erosion.

This is not a single-session divergence.

This is a regime split within the semiconductor complex, reinforced by relative-strength leadership, capital rotation, volatility repricing, dealer hedging mechanics, gamma reflexivity, vanna sensitivity, and liquidity pocket formation.

I’m tracking relative strength, capital migration, gamma and vanna exposure, dealer flow dynamics, volatility term structure, liquidity acceptance zones, positioning signals, and cross-asset feedback to determine whether this evolves into a sustained multi-week leadership rotation or remains a contained repricing event.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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