Weekly: Tensions Easing, Indexes Jump 3–5% Despite Hot Inflation & Weak GDP; Q1 Earnings Ahead
Last Week's Recap
1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13%
-
Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices.
-
Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses.
-
Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
-
Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119.
-
Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses.
-
GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially).
-
Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March).
-
Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6% from 13.2%.
2. The US Sectors & Stocks - Tech and Energy Stocks Drive Market Gains
$S&P 500(.SPX)$: The S&P 500 index rose by 3.1% and closed at 6816.89 last week, driven by strong performances in the technology and semiconductor sectors.
Sectors: The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with stocks like $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ leading the charge due to robust demand for AI-related chips. Energy stocks, however, faced pressure from declining oil prices, impacting companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
10 Popular Stocks:
-
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : +13.64% - Supported by its aggressive expansion in AI and data center investments, alongside strong growth in its chips business.
-
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : +9.31% - Driven by strong demand for AI-related chips and a favorable exchange rate.
-
$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ : +12.23% - Reflecting positive sentiment ahead of its expected revenue growth in Q1.
-
$Netflix(NFLX)$ : +4.1% - buoyed by expectations of a 15.82% revenue growth in Q1, driven by new monetization initiatives and advertising progress.
-
$Alibaba(BABA)$ : +4.33% - fueled by strong investor interest in Chinese tech equities and positive sentiment around its AI advancements.
-
$Aehr Test(AEHR)$ $ : +58.91%- Reflecting strong investor confidence following its Q3 financial results that exceeded expectations.
-
$Chevron(CVX)$ : -5.24% - Impacted by the drop in oil prices following geopolitical developments.
-
$Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ : -5.09% - As the provisional ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran led to a sharp drop in oil prices.
-
$APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$ : +6.92% - Driven by strong demand for its data center services and AI infrastructure needs.
-
$Eos Energy Enterprises Inc.(EOSE)$ : +13.08% - Reflecting positive market reception to its operational scaling progress and record shipments.
3. Hong Kong Market - HSI surges 3.09% amid AI-driven tech rally
$HSI(HSI)$ jumped 3.09% to 25,893.54 and $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ added 3.87% to 4,860.26 on easing geopolitical tensions and AI infrastructure demand.
Sector Leaders: Info Tech Consulting (+32.6%), Semiconductors (+15.3%), and System Software (+16.8%) led on AI investment and record chip sales (+61.8% YoY).
Top 10 Performers:
-
$CH FRONTIER TEC(01661)$ : +179.31% – Surged on speculative buying in small-cap tech plays and AI-related theme momentum.
-
$CHINA FORTUNE(00110)$ : +97.44% – Rally driven by low-float volatility and potential restructuring optimism in the conglomerate’s asset portfolio.
-
$LEOCH INT'L(00842)$ : +86.79% – Skyrocketed after announcing termination of Leoch Energy Inc.'s planned U.S. spin-off, removing uncertainty over the overseas asset divestment .
-
$EDA GROUP HLDGS(02505)$ : +83.56% – Gained on annual results showing revenue up 17.58% YoY, with global warehouse expansion showing initial traction in Europe and Australia .
-
$HING LEE (HK)(00396)$ : +76.92% – Experienced volatile price swings amid thin trading and speculative interest in micro-cap industrials .
-
$DTXS SILK ROAD(00620)$ : +73.08% – Rose on cultural asset trading platform speculation and potential policy support for heritage digitization initiatives.
-
$CN CULTURE GP(00745)$ : +64.71% – Benefited from e-commerce and advertising segment recovery, alongside momentum in film production-related services.
-
$CHINA NEWCITY(01321)$ : +58.70% – Joined as a founding member of the Hong Kong RWA Global Industry Alliance, focusing on blockchain-based asset tokenization and cross-border ASEAN cooperation .
-
$MODERN CHI MED(01643)$ : +56.48% –Traditional Chinese medicine stocks attracted defensive capital; the stock hit record highs amid strong prescription drug sales data .
-
$DIAGENS-B(02526)$ : +51.52% – The "medical imaging large model platform first stock" continued its post-IPO rally, driven by its iMedImage® foundation model covering 19 imaging modalities and 469.8% YoY revenue growth
4. Singapore Market - STI gains 0.85% amid relief rally in tech and property sectors
$Solidion Technology Inc.(STI)$ : +0.85% to 4,989.41, a modest relief rally led by advertising (+20.14%) and semiconductor equipment (+19.17%) as easing Middle East tensions lifted regional sentiment, though gains were capped by selective positioning on property exposure.
Top Performers:
-
$Top Glove(BVA.SI)$ : +8.51% – Bounced from oversold levels as glove demand stabilized and production costs eased.
-
$Frasers Property(TQ5.SI)$ : +6.19% – Gained on defensive rotation into diversified Singapore/Australia property plays.
-
$Yanlord Land(Z25.SI)$ : +5.79% – Rose on China property policy speculation and low-base bargain hunting.
-
$SGX(S68.SI)$ : +5.45% – Benefited from elevated trading volumes and rebounding market turnover.
-
$YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ : +4.96% – Tracked maritime sector rally and new order momentum.
-
$Jiutian Chemical(C8R.SI)$ : +4.76% – Micro-cap rally on chemical supply chain adjustments.
-
$HongkongLand USD(H78.SI)$ : +3.72% – Gained on China policy easing hopes and office market stabilization.
-
$CapitaLandInvest(9CI.SI)$ : +2.92% – Rose on retail/hospitality recovery, though China exposure remains mixed.
-
$CityDev(C09.SI)$ : +2.68% – Advanced on property sector relief and restructuring optimism.
-
$Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ : +2.07% – Tracked renewables expansion in India; analysts maintain bullish S$7.30-7.90 targets.
5. Australian Market - XJO gains 4.44% amid relief rally in tech and financials
$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ : +4.44% to 8,960.6 on a broad-based relief rally led by consumer electronics (+42.45%) and Big Four banks as easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly oil price drop improved risk appetite.
Top Performers:
-
$ASX LTD(ASX.AU)$ : +10.05% – Elevated trading volumes and improved market turnover.
-
$NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD(NAB.AU)$ : +8.21% – High-dividend banking rotation; strong deposit/loan growth.
-
$VICINITY CENTRES(VCX.AU)$ : +8.02% – Retail REIT benefiting from improved foot traffic.
-
$Macquarie(MQG.AU)$ : +7.90% – All four divisions posted higher net profit; 17% upside target.
-
$GOODMAN GROUP(GMG.AU)$ : +7.04% – Logistics and data center expansion.
-
$ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(ANZ.AU)$ : +6.79% – "ANZ 2030" strategy; sector-wide strength.
-
$WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION(WBC.AU)$ : +6.76% – Risk appetite recovery; 39% annual gain.
-
$COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ : +6.68% – Banking relief rally; up 11% YTD.
-
$QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED(QAN.AU)$ : +6.00% – Reopening travel demand and load factor recovery.
-
$TREASURY WINE ESTATES LTD(TWE.AU)$ : +5.85% – Oversold bounce; "TWE Ascent" cost cuts; 12.7x PE value.
The Week Ahead
1. Macro Factors -Key Economic Data
-
Geopolitics: U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad; oil/bond volatility continues
-
IMF: Updated global forecasts assessing Middle East conflict impact
-
U.S. Data: PPI (+4.6% YoY exp), Empire State & Philly Fed surveys, existing home sales, industrial production
-
Europe: Final March CPI (Spain, France, Italy, Eurozone), industrial production, ECB meeting minutes
-
China: Q1 GDP (+4.9% exp), retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment, March trade (+8% exports exp)
2. Earnings Spotlight: April 13–17
Financials dominate the calendar as Q1 bank results kick into high gear, alongside key semiconductor and consumer names.
Big Banks & Financials (Mon–Thu)
-
Tues: $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, $Citigroup(C)$, $Wells Fargo(WFC)$, $BlackRock(BLK)$, $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)$
-
Wed: $Morgan Stanley(MS)$, $Bank of America(BAC)$, $PNC Financial Services Group Inc(PNC)$, $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$
-
Thu: $Bank of New York Mellon(BK)$, $U.S. Bancorp(USB)$, $Charles Schwab(SCHW)$, $State(STT)$
-
Fri: $Ally(ALLY)$
Tech & Semiconductors
-
Wed: $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ – Critical lithography demand signals for AI chip capacity.
-
Thu: $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ – The world's largest foundry reports; key read on AI chip (HBM/CoWoS) supply constraints and Capex plans. Also $Netflix(NFLX)$ – Subscriber growth and ad-tier momentum.
Industrials & Consumer
-
Wed: $JB Hunt Transport(JBHT)$ – Freight and logistics barometer.
-
Thu: $Pepsi(PEP)$ – Pricing power and volume trends in snacks/beverages; $Alcoa(AA)$ – Aluminum pricing post-Middle East supply shocks.
-
Fri: $LM Ericsson Telephone(ERIC)$ – 5G infrastructure demand.
What to Watch: Bank net interest margin pressure vs. investment banking recovery; TSM’s 2026 CapEx guidance for AI capacity; NFLX subscriber beat/miss after price hikes.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

I’m seeing AI and semiconductors continue to lead, with names like $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ benefiting from strong chip demand, while energy stocks lagged due to falling oil. This tells me the rally is more about rotation and sentiment rather than a broad-based recovery.
Looking ahead, I’m focused on upcoming earnings, especially banks and key tech names. For me, it’s about whether results can support this rally—if not, volatility could return quickly.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerObserver
This is the most critical macro signal for the optical sector. TSMC's (TSM) 2026 CapEx guidance serves as the ultimate proxy for AI capacity demand. If TSM raises its budget for advanced packaging (CoWoS) and 2nm nodes, it confirms that the physical infrastructure for AI is still scaling aggressively. Since every high-end GPU requires multiple high-speed optical connections, a bullish TSM outlook directly validates the "structural" multi-year investment theme for LITE and COHR.
Netflix (NFLX) is the "canary in the coal mine" for consumer spending. A subscriber beat despite price hikes would prove that "premium" digital services remain shielded from inflation. While not directly linked to optical hardware, a strong NFLX print maintains the "Growth at Any Price" sentiment in the Nasdaq, preventing a broader tech sell-off that could otherwise drag down high-multiple stocks like Lumentum and Coherent during their pre-earnings run-up.
The divergence in banking will be a key sentiment driver. Net Interest Margin (NIM) pressure from "higher-for-longer" rates is a headwind for traditional lending, but the Investment Banking (IB) recovery—driven by a surge in AI-related IPOs and M&A—could offset this. For optical module investors, a strong IB recovery signals that the capital markets are open for further high-tech expansion and strategic acquisitions, which has historically fueled the LITE and COHR growth stories.