To The Moon

The 2026 World Cup kicks off — the biggest ever. 48 teams, 104 matches, co-hosted by the U.S., Canada and Mexico, running June 11 to July 19. It's also shaping up as one of the largest sports-betting events in history, with global wagers projected near $50 billion.

Let's be honest: people who trade stocks usually love a flutter too. Buying a stock is a bet on fundamentals; backing a World Cup team is a bet on form and heart. Underneath, it's the same game — probability, odds, and emotion.

First, the bad news for the home crowd. No Southeast Asian team made it this time. Indonesia got the closest it ever has in qualifying and still came up short, and Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore never got near. Asia's flag is carried by 9 AFC teams instead: Japan, South Korea, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Australia, plus first-timers Jordan and Uzbekistan. So for most of us, this one's about picking a side on vibes, not passports.

So who's actually winning this thing?

Goldman Sachs models show Spain the favorite at around 26%, with France close behind near 19%, then Argentina around 14% and Brazil about 8%. The usual storylines are all back:

- Brazil — the attack, always the attack

- Argentina — defending champs, can they go back-to-back?

- France — maybe the deepest squad on paper

- Spain — quietly the bookies' top pick

- England — forever fighting the "tournament curse" (the models give them about 5%)

And the names that cash in no matter who wins

You don't have to guess the champion to spot who profits from the noise. Sportsbooks like $DraftKings Inc.(DKNG)$ and $Flutter Entertainment PLC(FLUT)$ live for exactly this — a global event landing in a normally quiet June and July, with traffic pouring in. Whether they keep the windfall is a separate fight (prediction markets like Polymarket are crashing the party and eating into margins), but the eyeballs are guaranteed.

Your turn — drop your picks

Which team are you betting to lift the trophy?

Would you ride the betting stocks ($DKNG, $FLUT) alongside it, or just enjoy the football?

And since the big games land in U.S. hours, are you setting a 3am alarm?

Drop your team in the comments to win tiger coins!