To The Moon

Hello everyone! Today, we review the latest technical outlook for the Hang Seng Index, Nasdaq 100, Gold and WTI crude.

The Hang Seng is retesting key support, while Nasdaq’s rebound is approaching its 200-day moving average. Gold remains capped by overhead resistance, while oil is trying to stabilize in a key support zone. Stronger U.S. inflation has added interest rate pressure. Hopes of easing U.S.-Iran tensions and encouraging AI news are also shaping market pricing. We assess fundamentals alongside price structure to identify key support, resistance and the confirmation needed for further moves.

Hang Seng: Support Retest, Recovery Still Unconfirmed

Hong Kong’s GDP grew 5.1% year over year in the first three quarters, supporting local equities. However, mainland China’s October core CPI inflation eased to 0.8%, while producer prices rose 5.7% year over year. The consumer recovery still needs confirmation as upstream cost pressures increase. With this mixed backdrop, stronger corporate earnings are needed to validate a sustained rebound.

$恆生指數(HSI)$ $恆生指數主連 2611(HSImain)$ $恆生指數ETF南方(513600)$ $恆生ETF(159920)$ $恆生科技指數(HSTECH)$ $恆生科技指數主連 2611(HTImain)$ $恆生香港股票(03444)$

Source: TradingView, Credit to authors. Removal on request.

The four-hour chart shows a sharp rebound from around 23,000, followed by recoveries above 23,952 and 24,303. This suggests the decline has slowed as short-term buying interest strengthens. However, the rebound lost momentum near 24,800 before prices pulled back to test support. The chart shows 24,278.59, slightly below 24,303. The index remains in a pullback and consolidation phase after its rebound.

Initial resistance lies near the short-term consolidation area at 24,500, followed by the recent rebound high around 24,800. A break above that high could open a test of resistance confluence at 25,048.27. This overlaps an area that has repeatedly prompted price reactions. Watch for selling pressure as the index approaches it. A decisive break and hold would improve the prospects for further upside.

On the downside, 23,952.01 is key. If the index remains below 24,303 and rebounds fail to reclaim it, pullback pressure could intensify. A decisive break below 23,952.01 would weaken the rebound, bringing 23,500 and then 23,000 into focus. The 23,000 area is close to where the previous rebound began. A return there would require a fresh assessment of buying support.

Focus on how prices behave during the retest near 24,303. Reclaiming and holding that level as support would favor rebound continuation. Repeated failed rallies would leave consolidation and pullback risks in play. Use 23,952.01 to gauge whether the short-term rebound structure is weakening further.

Nasdaq 100: Rebound Tests the 200-Day Average

Anticipation of Anthropic’s IPO and CoreWeave’s quarterly revenue beat could revive interest in the AI trade. This could help restore risk appetite in technology stocks. A sustained rally still depends on leading companies’ earnings, returns on AI investment and interest rates. For now, sentiment is improving, while a broad recovery in fundamentals remains unconfirmed.

$美光科技(MU)$ $英偉達(NVDA)$ $亞馬遜(AMZN)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $微軟(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$ $蘋果(AAPL)$ $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ $納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ $納指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ $納斯達克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指數主連 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指數主連 2612(MNQmain)$

Source: TradingView, Credit to authors. Removal on request.

The latest daily chart shows a rebound from support at 26,258. The index is up 1.02% at 28,087.1, almost exactly at its 200-day moving average of 28,087.7. It reached 28,184.9 intraday but has yet to establish a clear hold above the average. The breakout remains unconfirmed.

RSI (14) has risen to 42.61, suggesting weakness is easing, though it remains below 50. MACD is -621.1 and is approaching the signal line at -526.9. A bullish crossover has yet to form, and MACD remains below zero. This remains a corrective rebound after a decline.

Watch for a decisive break above 28,088, followed by a successful retest. If confirmed, first watch 28,875. Beyond that, the descending trendline remains a hurdle. The 100-day and 50-day moving averages form another resistance zone at 29,393 to 29,557. If the rally fails and prices turn lower, watch support at 27,060 and 26,258. A break below 26,258 would undermine the rebound structure, bringing 25,444 into focus.

Gold: Recovery Continues, but 4,085 Remains Key Resistance

U.S. October headline and core CPI rose 0.4% and 0.3% month over month, respectively. Both exceeded expectations, lifting Treasury yields and strengthening expectations of a December rate hike. Interest rate pressure therefore continues to constrain gold’s short-term rebound. Focus next on U.S. PPI on November 13 and any repricing of Fed policy expectations.

$黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$

Source: TradingView, Credit to authors. Removal on request.

The daily chart shows gold at 4,060.67, up 0.70% on the day. It remains a corrective rebound after the previous session’s decline. An earlier rally stalled around 4,140 to 4,150 before prices pulled back. Gold remains below horizontal resistance at 4,085.04, so the rebound’s durability still needs confirmation.

Key resistance lies at 4,085 to 4,100. Rejection here would leave gold vulnerable to another pullback. A decisive daily close above 4,085, followed by a successful retest, would favor a test of 4,140 to 4,150. A break above that zone would bring the previous congestion area near 4,200 into focus. Initial support is at the session low of 4,026.77, followed by the 4,000 round-number level. Holding this area would help sustain the rebound and consolidation. A decisive break below 4,000 would expose support between 3,909 and 3,937. Further weakness could lead to a retest of the previous lows.

Monitor support and resistance within 4,026 to 4,085 while waiting for confirmation of stabilization or rejection. After a decisive break above 4,085, watch for continuation following a successful retest. A break below 4,000 would raise the risk of a deeper correction.

WTI Crude: Stabilization at Support Remains Unconfirmed

Rising hopes of easing U.S.-Iran tensions, coupled with higher Persian Gulf energy exports, are eroding oil’s geopolitical risk premium. WTI futures fell 0.9% on November 10 to settle at $86.04 a barrel. Easing supply concerns therefore continue to weigh on short-term prices. Watch negotiation progress and inventory changes.

$美國原油ETF(USO)$ $馬拉松原油(MPC)$ $WTI原油主連 2611(CLmain)$ $小原油主連 2611(QMmain)$

Source: TradingView, Credit to authors. Removal on request.

The chart shows WTI at $86.22 a barrel. Prices retreated from highs around 104.50 to 105.50 and broke below the rising channel. Lower highs and lower lows then formed. Overhead resistance remains, leaving the short-term trend weak.

Focus on support at 85.50 to 87.00. Small rebounds and consolidation near the lows suggest the decline is slowing. A clear reversal structure has yet to form. If buyers continue to defend 85.50, watch for a higher low followed by a recovery above 87.00. This would help extend the corrective rebound. Initial resistance lies near 87.80. A break above it would bring the 91.80 to 92.50 resistance zone into focus. A decisive break above 92.50 is key to the next stage of the rebound. This area stalled a previous rally, so another rejection could send prices back toward support. A break above 92.50, followed by a successful retest as support, could open a move toward 98.20 to 99.30.

Reclaiming 99.30 would be needed before targeting the major supply zone at 104.50 to 105.50. Progress toward these higher targets requires confirmation at each resistance level. On the downside, 84.50 is the key invalidation level for this rebound scenario. A break below 85.50, followed by a failed recovery, would weaken the support zone. An hourly close below 84.50 would invalidate the rebound setup, requiring a fresh assessment of downside risk.

Focus first on whether buyers defend 85.50 to 87.00. Once prices stabilize, look for signs of rebound continuation. Until 92.50 is decisively reclaimed, treat any gains as a corrective rebound within a weak trend.

The next key checks are the Hang Seng’s support retest near 24,303 and Nasdaq’s hold above its 200-day average near 28,088. For gold, watch whether it reclaims resistance at 4,085 to 4,100. For WTI, monitor the defense of support at 85.50 to 87.00.

Continue tracking U.S. inflation and rate expectations, U.S.-Iran negotiations and AI-related earnings news. Rebound continuation remains unconfirmed across these markets. Focus on buying support after key resistance levels are broken. If support fails, adjust expectations promptly to account for a deeper pullback.

This is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.