2022Q1 Earnings Season speculation guide (II)
Us March CPI was released before the market today, rising 8.5% y/y, continuing to hit a 40-year high, expected 8.4% vs. 7.9% last. The market quickly rallied after the CPI data, with Nasdaq futures up as much as 2 per cent.
My explanation for this is that the market has been anticipating the CPI data since Brainard was already warned about it.
This data is only abstractly scary, and last week the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve said at the meeting that the people can barely afford to eat is the real scary.
There are two big drivers of this earnings season, inflation and supply chain disruptions. How to deal with inflation and supply chain disruptions has been the question for most companies this earnings season.
In an inflationary environment, the market has already priced in most earnings results: revenue rose more than expected year on year, while earnings fell less than expected year on year due to cost pressures.
So it should be the norm for companies to beat expectations and see their stock prices tumble this quarter. Don't go around the comment section asking why the stock price fell when it beat expectations.
Under such circumstances, if the stock price wants to perform well, the company needs to work hard in the forward guidance: the market will focus on the company's cost control and transfer, supply chain control, and profit prospects and profit protection.
And supply chain barriers to chip auto plate has become a disaster area, supply chain problems not only increase costs, but also affect the revenue of enterprises. That's why chip and auto stocks have fallen so badly.
As with the inflation problem above, there is a solution, which is to see how forward guidance describes strong demand and ways to boost productivity, such as tesla's Texas plant.
As for the optimistic hope that it fell so much before earnings that it won't continue to fall after the results are revealed, one more example awaits. Take financial stocks this week.
Financial stocks are poor technically, the fundamentals are also poor. Market year-over-year earnings expectations show a decline of -24.2%.
If financial stocks didn't hit new lows after the earnings report, the quarter has already been fulfilled. Otherwise, it's time to take a hard look at the stocks you own.
Sell put pool today
| Ticker symbol | Annualized income | Expiration date | strike price | Premium |
| $MSFT 20220422 275.0 PUT$ | 38% | 2022/4/22 | 275 | 3.25 |
| $AAPL 20220422 160.0 PUT$ | 32% | 2022/4/22 | 160 | 1.59 |
| $AMD 20220422 85.0 PUT$ | 24% | 2022/4/22 | 85 | 0.7 |
| $TSLA 20220422 800.0 PUT$ | 12% | 2022/4/22 | 800 | 3.65 |
| $NVDA 20220422 195.0 PUT$ | 33% | 2022/4/22 | 195 | 2.2 |
| $INTC 20220520 42.5 PUT$ | close at Friday | 2022/5/20 | 42.5 | 1.01 |
Same as yesterday, because the bottom price is not much different.
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Great guide on how to trade options in line with 2022 Q1 Earnings. Thanks @OptionsDelta
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