After worst H1 in 50 years, How will US stocks go in the 2nd half of 2022?

At yesterday's close, the three major indexes closed down collectively, with $DJIA(.DJI)$ down 0.82%, the$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ down 1.33%, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 0.88%. So far, in the first half of 2022, the S&P 500 has fallen by 20.58%, setting the worst first half performance since 1970. The Nasdaq has fallen by 29.51% and the Dow by 15.31%. At the same time, the "panic index"$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ jumped nearly 67%.Not only U.S. stocks, but the world's major stock indexes were bleak in the first half of the year. The FTSE Singapore Straits Index fell .69% to top the list, and the Nasdaq index fell to the bottom with a 29.51% decline.

Five S&P industries fell by more than 20%, of which the information technology industry was at the bottom with a decline of 34.01%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell 36% in half a year, $Apple(AAPL)$ fell 23%, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ fell 24%, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ fell 25%, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 52%, and $Netflix(NFLX)$ fell 71%.

On the contrary, the energy industry rose 23.95% against the trend, and energy stocks performed very strongly. $Occidental(OXY)$ rose nearly 105%, $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ rose more than 44%, $ConocoPhillips(COP)$ and $Chevron(CVX)$ both rose more than 26%.

In the futures market, energy is also "unmatched", with Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both rising by more than 40%. Agricultural product futures rose one after another, and the "demon nickel" after the storm also rose by nearly 10%.

Similar to the situation where the S&P 500 fell by more than 15%, since 1932, it has only happened 5 times, and in these 5 cases, the S&P 500 rebounded in the second half of the year, with an average increase of 3.66%

So can U.S. stocks get out of the bear market in the second half of the year?

JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic, known as Wall Street's "dead bull", is quite optimistic:

Investors should brace for a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy for strong stock returns in the second half of 2022

George Ball, chairman of Sanders Morris Harris, believes that the bottom of the S&P 500 index should be around 3,100 points. The US stock market has not bottomed out yet, and investors should hold more cash.

Alan Sai, multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management, said: "The market is stuck at best until we get a signal that inflation is peaking.

Which sectors are worthy of attention in the second half of the year?

JPMorgan Chase: Buy cyclical stocks including energy sector, avoid defensive stocks including consumer staples, utilities, small caps and growth stocks have opportunities.

Citi: Bullish on investment-grade bonds

Industrial Securities: Optimistic about A shares and Hong Kong stocks, focusing on new energy vehicles, Internet, property management, sports shoes, clothing, social services, catering and other industries

Tiger friends, do you think the U.S. stock market can get out of the bear market in the second half of the year?

Which industries, sectors, and stocks are worthy of attention in the second half of the year?

What do you think your earnings target for the second half of the year is?

......

let's chat in the comment area~

# 💰 Stocks to watch today?(05 Nov)

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  • ___ _
    ·2022-07-01
    I believe the market has more or less priced all the expected negative news in.  The problem now is there is a shrinkage of cash flow in the economy due to FED constant increase in rates.
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    • ___ _
      It will need more time for us to be out of bear market.  Utility industry should be doing well. I'm not expecting anything for the 2nd half of 2022.
      2022-07-01
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  • MoneyCentral
    ·2022-07-01
    I believe it is going to be choppy trading till end of the year. Most likely end down as recession hits
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  • Success88
    ·2022-07-01
    Covid, War, Inflation. This is the cycle. Initially is covid issue. Don't forget covid still not end yet. Many new variant starting to form. Monkeypox is there.
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  • gme1xxx
    ·2022-07-01
    no getting out of this anytime soon. pure consequence of printing 80% of the USD in existence in the last 2yrs or so.
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  • JL28168
    ·2022-07-01
    Estimate will continue drop in slower pace 15 to 20% more, go to recession, to recover need more than 6mths, nxt yr mayb market only start recover. Always blue chips recover first, time to buy them
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  • Gackky
    ·2022-07-01
    as long threat of recession looming, it will be diffcult. defensive stocks for the win i guess[Helpless]
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  • Boo2020
    ·2022-07-01
    as long as interest rate is increasing, no way we can get out of bear market 🐻
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  • grizzlylee
    ·2022-07-01
    2nd half maybe still bear, hopefully the last 2 months may see bull.
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  • StayHome
    ·2022-07-01
    Dun think US stock market can get out of bear market in 2nd half of 2022 with war and trade protectionism on going. Oil, gas, metals, energy and food industries are worthy of attention i guess.
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  • 己所不欲
    ·2022-07-02
    Don't think it will recover so fast especially inflation is still untamed.  FED has the intention to go hard on it.  I don't think my portfolio will improve this year.
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  • AlexTeddySG
    ·2022-07-02
    Recovery will only start in October. Once it crossess the pivot, recovery will be swift and steep. It potentially may end the last quarter on positive note - 18% recovery (of the 30% of value lost).☺️
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    • AlexTeddySG
      Hmm got only 30 for predicting close to reality. And 88 for someone who said 2nd half is going to be more worse 😜😜😜. Huh no problem @Tiger_chat
      2022-11-30
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  • SR050321
    ·2022-07-02
    I wish i have a lot of supply of free money (money that no need for short term) sure market will rebound, it could be 2023, now time to buy good profitable companies at a discount
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  • ToughCoyote
    ·2022-07-02
    If you have extra money that you do mot need it is better to shop at low priced US stock marjet has historically reach new heights; would recommend shopping for companies which are blue chip
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  • Vomous
    ·2022-07-02
    There is one more leg before before we can recover. Will scoop up fundamentally good stocks like msft, meta, adobe.
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  • MSing
    ·2022-07-02
    interest rate still keep on up up up hard to run[Cry][Cry]
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  • Investforget
    ·2022-07-02
    It is year of volatility. The market will keep moving up and down. Don’t panic . Buy and hold . DCA is the way. I would still prefer tech stocks @Daily_Discussion
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  • bernardtayet
    ·2022-07-02
    TOP
    I will focus on consumer and pharmaceutical sectors as companies in these 2 sectors are essential consumption. They can pass rising costs to end users.
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  • bwjx
    ·2022-07-02
    whether it can go out of bear market will depend on whether inflation has peaked, if supply chain issues and shortage could be resolved. [Happy] [Happy]
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  • Bonta
    ·2022-07-02
    2nd half, biden will need to talk up the markets or provide support before mid terms. Or he is toast. Earnings is unlikely to be gd, due to rising inflation & wages. Likely blood bath until sept-oct
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  • silverkapow
    ·2022-07-02
    bearish. still, cash is king and my position.
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