To The Moon

Before the Roundup, How Did Your Investing Perform in Q3? Which market event in Q3 that that still shocks in your mind? For the coming Q4, what expectations do you have on investing or life?

1. Q3 of 2022 was a time when events took a truly extraordinary turn

Weekly: Sept Extends Relentless Decline, Facing a "Spiral Sell-off"?

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As the Federal Reserve ratcheted up its monetary policy tightening to tame the worst inflation in decades, Pivot-Hope-Punisher Powell Leaves Q3 Global Market Bloodbath In His Wake.

The greenback is up about 7% for the quarter against a basket of currencies and stands near its highest level since May 2002. Still, the British currency lost 8.3% relative to the dollar in the third quarter.

The global stock market changed its strength last year, and the major stock indexes of many countries or regions fell by more than 20% in Q3.

• According to Tradeview data, in Q3 2022, the Russian RTS index fell by 33.84%, leading the decline in major global stock markets. South Korea Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, Taiwan Weighted Index, S&P 500, Germany DAX and other indexes fell by more than 20% in the Q3.
• India's SENSEX30 index, Britain's FTSE 100 index, and the Nikkei 225 index also fell with a decline of less than 10%.
• The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is down nearly 25% year-to-date. The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong shares fell by more than 20% during the period. The A-share Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell by 11.01% in the Q3.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury which move inversely to bond prices, recently hit their highest level since 2008.

Global M&A just suffered its worst Q3 in a decade.

Oil markets just closed their worst quarter since demand collapsed at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, with prices for international benchmark Brent crude down 23%. $Light Crude Oil - main 2211(CLmain)$, $United States Oil Fund(USO)$

2. A number of large cap technology stocks fell significantly in Q3

From the performance of specific large companies, in the Q3 of 2022, American stock companies experienced a sharp structural differentiation.

According to Wind data, among the top companies in the US stock market, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ became one of the worst performing big companies during the period, with a cumulative decline of nearly 60% in the first three quarters.

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ also became one of the worst performing big companies during the period, with its share price halved in the first three quarters.

In addition, in the first three quarters, $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ US stocks, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Class A stocks, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ,$Microsoft(MSFT)$ and other stocks also fell by more than 30%.

While technology stocks fell sharply, oil and other energy stocks became the biggest "winners" in the Q3. Among them, $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ cumulative growth in the Q3 was nearly 50%, and $Chevron(CVX)$ growth was more than 25%.

Q3 performance of stocks, source from https://finviz.com/

3. Downbeat Q3 Profit Growth

Analysts also become more downbeat on Q3 profit growth, with consensus estimates falling to 4.6% from 7.2% in early August, according to Refinitiv IBES.

European and U.K. companies with significant overseas exposures have experienced profit tailwinds from weakness in the euro and the pound relative to the dollar, but favorable exchange rates might not avert an earnings slowdown in the short to medium term.

As investors gear up for the third-quarter earnings season, a flurry of profit warnings from U.S. and European chemical companies has painted a picture of waning demand across the sector, with Europe and China as the main sources of weakness.

Many investors are looking to the next three months with trepidation, betting the selloff in U.S. stocks will continue until there are signs the Fed is winning its battle against inflation.

Equity strategists at $Morgan Stanley(MSSXL)$ said in a research note last week:

Foreign-exchange tailwinds might still blow over the next couple of quarters, but European stocks could still see a downgrade cycle down the road as a looming economic downturn is set to weaken end demand and erode companies' pricing power.

4. GDP Forcast for 2022 Q3

From BofA:

Overall, the data since our last weekly publication and our updated assumptions on trade boosted our3Q US GDP tracking from 0.8% q/q saar to 1.5% q/q saar. [September 30th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Following this morning’s data and yesterday’s revisions, we have lowered ourQ3 GDP tracking forecast by 0.5pp to +0.9% (qoq ar). [September 30th estimate]

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.4% on September 30, up from 0.3% on September 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.4 percent and -7.6 percent, respectively, to 1.0 percent and -4.2 percent, respectively.

How Did Your Investing Perform in Q3?

Which market event in Q3 that you will never forget？

For the coming Q4, what expectations do you have on investing or life?