To The Moon

According to the news of this voluntary production reduction, the total output reduction is as high as 1.5 million barrels, which is not small, accounting for 1.5% of the total daily global crude oil demand.

The last time OPEC + alliance agreed to reduce production was during China's National Day last year, and the oil price rose by 15% during the National Day, so will this trip replicate last year's market? At least look forward to it.

When this kind of news appears on weekends, it usually jumps to the sky and opens higher on Monday. If the gap is formed, then the gap is an important supporting position for oil prices. In the past history, this kind of gap either fluctuated after being replenished, or directly accelerated to move forward in the direction of the gap.

Therefore, if there is a gap in oil prices next week, it will be an opportunity for short-term bulls.

Moreover, the oil price is currently near the edge of the downward trend line in the past year (1 USD/barrel higher than the current price). If it breaks through upward, the range should be higher than the first line. In addition, there is news of production reduction over the weekend, so the oil price should not be bearish this week, and small positions should follow.

Will the US stock index continue to rise?

With non-agricultural data next week and news of Trump's arrest, US stocks are still estimated to be in a volatile market between 3,700 and 4,200.

The soaring oil price will drive up inflation expectations. Although PCE was lower than market expectations last week, in fact, the market has always had inflation expectations, so it is hard to say whether it will prevent the Fed from continuing its rate hike.

Therefore, in fact, the stock index has been affected by these news back and forth, forming a wide and volatile market, which is actually the normal state of the US stock index until the real decisive event occurs, such as the start of interest rate cuts or the outbreak of a bigger crisis.

The crisis has not been removed, and the price of gold is still strong

Although the crisis has eased, the gold price has not been greatly adjusted back, which shows that the market has not yet recognized the current solution to the banking crisis, resulting in the current gold price still strong, and we cannot bear the gold price before it falls below the 20-day moving average. Even the correction of gold price is a better opportunity to get on the bus, and everyone can continue to pay attention to the trend triggered by this week's news.

Of course, there are many friends here who like to trade silver. Although the trend of silver will rise with the rise of gold, silver is never a safe-haven variety. Once the crisis comes again, the increase is still less than that of gold, and even the decline is even greater. Therefore, in today's turbulent market, everyone tries to avoid varieties with stronger speculative attributes and reduce account fluctuations.

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