To The Moon

This Wednesday night will be the Fed's interest rate meeting. Unlike previous meetings, Up to now, the market has not fully priced in the rate hike range of the Federal Reserve.

From the tools of CME's Fed Watch Tools, the expectation of 25 basis points in rate hike and rate hike is about 37, and this probability is thought to be 55. This shows that the market is looking forward to the Federal Reserve stopping the rate hike to achieve the effect of saving the market. Will the Federal Reserve really save the market? Let's wait and see.

​Judging from the current market situation, US stocks have not collapsed, large banks are still stable, and although economic data lags behind, it seems that there is no need to evaluate in advance, so will the Federal Reserve really stop rate hike's rescue of the market? Very doubtful. Anyway, we'll see on Wednesday night.

1. Do US stocks need to panic?

When the market expects the Federal Reserve to rescue the market on rate hike, it is too early to panic, but it is not a good long market, so be cautious. Technically, the 20-day moving average is still a good criterion for judging the short-term long-short watershed. When the market news is very uncertain, everyone still looks at the technical indicators to be reliable, at least not going back and forth.

At present, S&P is still below the 20-day moving average. Let's see if it can break through and stand firm next week. If not, we will continue to look at the weak market. We always tend to fluctuate in the range between 3700 and 4200.

​Second, pulse gold is expected to challenge 2100 this week

It is a coincidence that gold pulsed under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in March last year and the Silicon Valley bank incident in March this year. 2100 is the high point at the beginning of the Fed's rate hike, and now it has returned to this point, which means that the market thinks that it will cut interest rates here in the future?

So if the crisis breaks out and the price of gold reaches a new high, does it mean that the Federal Reserve will print money again, even more than the COVID-19 crisis for 20 years? At least that's what the market thinks at present, otherwise it can't explain the abnormal strength of gold price.

As for whether the price of gold can challenge 2100 points, the answer will be revealed at the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

Bullish friends pay attention to the short-term pulse of gold price to the pressure around 2100, which should be adjusted technically. Bearish friends should also keep an eye on this position. These positions are adjusted to be 100 +, and short-term income is OK. If you like to go to the theatre, you might as well rest this week and redeploy after the results are released.

​3. Where is the bottom of the plunging crude oil?

Crude oil was above $70, which was consolidated for a long time, but never broke through the 20-week moving average. Under the expectation that the banking crisis forced the economic crisis, it chose to plunge to the next range. Since the peak of crude oil in June last year, oil prices like to go to the range volatility market, with the width of each range being about US $10.

When the range jumps, it usually starts at the top of the previous range and falls to the bottom of the next range in a short time. This trip is no exception, starting from US $80 and falling to US $65. If the oil price still maintains the range fluctuation trend, then the oil price near $60 is the periodic bottom. Friends who expect to bargain-hunting can try at this price.

​$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2306(NQmain)$   $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2306(YMmain)$   $Gold - main 2304(GCmain)$   $Light Crude Oil - main 2305(CLmain)$   $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2306(ESmain)$