To The Moon

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Jun2026) On June 25 data: BlackRock IBIT ~$266M outflow, but Fidelity FBTC had even larger ~$275M outflow same day. Total US BTC ETF net outflow exceeded $690M. GBTC flat. Broader June has seen heavy redemptions overall. Institutions appear cautious, but BTC has shown resilience so far. Context: macro factors + typical summer dynamics at play. - Grok CNBC just admitted AI demand is falling and that's why SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are rushing to go public. - X user Financelot @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 29Jun2026) China and Global Manufacturing Signals China’s manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 50.2, indicating a modest expansion. Beyond China’s domestic manufacturing outlook, this release will also be watched as a signal for broader global demand and market sentiment. US Manufacturing and Inflation Indicators · Chicago PMI for June is forecast at 60.0, pointing to strong expansion. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 55.7, also suggesting continued growth. · ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is forecast at 53.7, reinforcing the growth outlook for the sector. · ISM Manufacturing Prices for June are expected at 79.0, highlighting persistent inflationary pressure that could be passed on to consumers through product pric

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 29Jun2026) China and Global Manufacturing Signals China’s manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 50.2, indicating a modest expansion. Beyond China’s domestic manufacturing outlook, this release will also be watched as a signal for broader global demand and market sentiment. US Manufacturing and Inflation Indicators · Chicago PMI for June is forecast at 60.0, pointing to strong expansion. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 55.7, also suggesting continued growth. · ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is forecast at 53.7, reinforcing the growth outlook for the sector. · ISM Manufacturing Prices for June are expected at 79.0, highlighting persistent inflationary pressure that could be passed on to consumers through product pric

Stretching out the chart for $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$  $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ , the current dip is a minor pull-back and shaking out those who are panicking after the 3 months of all time highs. The sell-in-may event this year got postponed till mid June because of the Iran war and the world cup. Big boys traders are taking a delayed summer break now thus the money flow is mainly algorithmic by the market makers.  I expect to see more catalysts coming in late July onwards and hopefully we will re

weee rollercoaster go down! 🐯⭐

I'm waiting for a daily KDJ hook and MACD divergence before stepping in. Until then, I'm staying defensive and rolling my bull put spreads further out.

I would avoid reacting to a single brutal session. A 23% drop in a leveraged ETF like SOXL amplifies volatility and is not necessarily a signal to abandon the AI theme. If the selloff is driven mainly by higher rate expectations and position unwinding rather than a collapse in earnings, I'd gradually add to high quality names instead of selling indiscriminately. I'd keep some cash in reserve because markets can overshoot on both the downside and upside. For diversification, selective exposure to hard assets such as gold or infrastructure can help if inflation and geopolitical risks remain elevated, but I would not rotate entirely out of equities. The key question is whether earnings expectations weaken. If they hold up, sharp corrections often create better long term entry points than reas

That's the downside of leveraged ETFs like SOXL—they amplify both gains and losses. A 3% drop in the Nasdaq turning into a 23% hit is brutal, but it's also why position sizing and risk management matter. Volatility cuts both ways. $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$  

At first glance, today's session looked uneventful. $美光科技(MU)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $闪迪(SNDK)$ The S&P 500 finished nearly flat, suggesting the market was simply consolidating after recent volatility. But beneath the surface, something much more important happened. The market wasn't selling technology. It was repricing different types of technology. During the trading session, Apple became one of the biggest drags on the major indices. Concerns over higher product pricing and its potential impact on consumer demand pressured the stock. Given Apple's enormou

I would avoid making broad, emotion-driven cuts. A sharp sell-off often mixes justified repricing with indiscriminate selling. If the investment thesis remains intact, I would reassess positions based on valuation, earnings outlook, and balance sheet quality rather than price action alone. For new capital, I'd favour staggered buying over trying to catch the exact bottom. Companies with durable cash flows and pricing power usually recover better than speculative names. If rates stay higher for longer, maintaining some cash for flexibility also makes sense. The key question is whether this is a temporary positioning unwind or a genuine deterioration in AI and corporate earnings. If fundamentals hold, volatility may create opportunities rather than signal an exit.

Our two prior key calls now appear to have largely played out: First, the pullback in U.S. equities from elevated levels would likely remain within an 8% range; second, crude oil had most likely topped, with WTI futures expected to retest the $65 level in the near term. Review：Oil Plunges, Undercurrents Thrive? June 19 Deal Could Flip — Option Strategy to Capture Time Value Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now！ Many market participants have attributed last night’s strong rebound in U.S. equities to Micron’s better-than-expected earnings. However, it is important to recognize that Micron’s results merely act

Everyone thinks the market is pulling back because fundamentals are weakening. They’re wrong. 📉🛑 Let’s cut through the noise. Yes, we’ve seen a pullback. Yes, I took a small hit myself this week—but I’m not losing a second of sleep over it. Here is the objective reality: The market just surged a massive 6,000 points from its early June lows. What we are experiencing right now isn't a crash; it hasn’t even broken the major moving averages. It is simply a market taking a well-deserved breath after sprinting to all-time highs. A lot of you are paralyzed, wondering if this is a "fake breakout." Market Insight: A true fake breakout is a sudden, violent trap after a long consolidation. What we have today is a structurally healthy rest. Don't let normal volatility shake you out of a generational

$Roundhill T-REX 2X Long DRAM Daily Target ETF(RAM)$   25% gain in afterhours ! I have been waiting for a 2X DRAM LETF, it was finally available today. Timing of availability could not be more perfect, coinciding with MU's earnings call. Post-market, RAM received a big boost due to explosive earnings beat by MU. 41 BILLION, almost 6 BILLION BEAT vs estimates. Take a moment to let that sink in.

The recent market is very interesting

Yesterday I talked about a few names I was looking to accumulate on weakness. Today, the catalysts are already starting to emerge. This is exactly why investing isn't about chasing headlines. It's about identifying where capital is going before the market fully prices it in. Most investors wait for the good news and then buy. The problem is that by the time the story becomes obvious, a large part of the upside is usually gone. The biggest returns often come from owning the right assets before the narrative becomes consensus. My core thesis remains unchanged: AI infrastructure spending is still expanding. Data center investment is still accelerating. And the companies building the backbone of the AI economy are still being underestimated. 🔹 $NOK $诺基亚(NO

Ini bagus$SpaceX(SPCX)$  confirm go down

Tech Bloodbath: Fed Repricing and Memory Meltdown Crater SOXL 23% — Is the AI Dream Resetting? The market just delivered a brutal reality check to tech bulls. The Nasdaq plunged 3.29%, but the real devastation hit the semiconductor space, where SOXL cratered an eye-watering 23%. Tech is caught in a vicious double blow from Fed rate repricing and a sudden memory sector meltdown. With yesterday's hawkish FOMC shockwaves continuing to linger, the era of easy liquidity for momentum trades is facing a severe stress test. This isn't just a routine red day; it is a structural repricing of risk assets. 1️⃣ The Vicious "Software-to-Hardware" Unwind We are currently witnessing a violent rebalancing in the "software-to-hardware, growth-to-value" rotation that has been aggressively underway since last

🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑

The ground has completely shifted under the market’s feet, and the short answer is: forget about an imminent pivot. The June 2026 FOMC meeting completely shattered the expectation of rate cuts. With newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh heavily prioritizing stubbornly sticky inflation over labor market performance, the Fed has officially flipped the script. The current macro landscape directly addresses your questions: Are We Going to See More Hikes, or an Imminent Pivot? Expect hikes, not a pivot. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in June, but their "dot plot" revealed a stark hawkish shift: 9 out of 18 officials now anticipate at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Major institutions are rapidly adjusting to this reality: The Fed's Outlook: Core PCE inflation forecasts for 202

Right now, the hawks have the stronger evidence. If inflation remains sticky and the labour market stays resilient, it is difficult for the Fed to justify easing, which explains why short-term yields and rate expectations have repriced so aggressively. That said, markets have a habit of extrapolating current conditions too far. Citi's case is not impossible. If falling oil prices feed through to inflation, jobless claims continue rising, and growth slows meaningfully, the Fed could shift from inflation concerns to growth concerns surprisingly quickly. My base case would be "higher for longer" rather than multiple rapid hikes or imminent cuts. The economy would need clearer signs of deterioration before October rate cuts become likely. For investors, the bigger risk may not be whether the n

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 29Jun2026) China and Global Manufacturing Signals China’s manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 50.2, indicating a modest expansion. Beyond China’s domestic manufacturing outlook, this release will also be watched as a signal for broader global demand and market sentiment. US Manufacturing and Inflation Indicators · Chicago PMI for June is forecast at 60.0, pointing to strong expansion. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 55.7, also suggesting continued growth. · ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is forecast at 53.7, reinforcing the growth outlook for the sector. · ISM Manufacturing Prices for June are expected at 79.0, highlighting persistent inflationary pressure that could be passed on to consumers through product pric

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 29Jun2026) China and Global Manufacturing Signals China’s manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 50.2, indicating a modest expansion. Beyond China’s domestic manufacturing outlook, this release will also be watched as a signal for broader global demand and market sentiment. US Manufacturing and Inflation Indicators · Chicago PMI for June is forecast at 60.0, pointing to strong expansion. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 55.7, also suggesting continued growth. · ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is forecast at 53.7, reinforcing the growth outlook for the sector. · ISM Manufacturing Prices for June are expected at 79.0, highlighting persistent inflationary pressure that could be passed on to consumers through product pric

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Jun2026) On June 25 data: BlackRock IBIT ~$266M outflow, but Fidelity FBTC had even larger ~$275M outflow same day. Total US BTC ETF net outflow exceeded $690M. GBTC flat. Broader June has seen heavy redemptions overall. Institutions appear cautious, but BTC has shown resilience so far. Context: macro factors + typical summer dynamics at play. - Grok CNBC just admitted AI demand is falling and that's why SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are rushing to go public. - X user Financelot @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Stretching out the chart for $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$  $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ , the current dip is a minor pull-back and shaking out those who are panicking after the 3 months of all time highs. The sell-in-may event this year got postponed till mid June because of the Iran war and the world cup. Big boys traders are taking a delayed summer break now thus the money flow is mainly algorithmic by the market makers.  I expect to see more catalysts coming in late July onwards and hopefully we will re

What was supposed to be an anticipated Mon, 22 Jun 2026 rally, has been completely derailed after: Peace talks in Switzerland collapsed on Friday without an official deal. Re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz as Israel continues its unilateral military campaign in Lebanon. With US market short-term sentiments interrupted by above events, will investors have to defer to last week’s US economic reports to justify any investment exercise ? Pertinent US reports out the week before: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 - Industrial production report. Tue, 16 Jun 2026 - Import price index. Wed, 17 Jun 2026 - US retail sales. Thu, 18 Jun 2026 - US jobless claims. US Industrial Production. YoY Report. US industrial output grew by +1.67% YoY for May 2026, missing market consensus of 1.9% but higher than April 2026’s upw

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026) Business Activity · S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Housing and Energy Markets · New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market. · Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil majors view market consumption. Inflation

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

Our two prior key calls now appear to have largely played out: First, the pullback in U.S. equities from elevated levels would likely remain within an 8% range; second, crude oil had most likely topped, with WTI futures expected to retest the $65 level in the near term. Review：Oil Plunges, Undercurrents Thrive? June 19 Deal Could Flip — Option Strategy to Capture Time Value Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now！ Many market participants have attributed last night’s strong rebound in U.S. equities to Micron’s better-than-expected earnings. However, it is important to recognize that Micron’s results merely act

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

If there is one word to describe US market for week ending Fri, 12 Jun 2026, it would be “resilient”. US equities rebounded from the prior week’s selloff, with small caps leading gains as investors digested (a) inflation data, (b) improving geopolitical developments, and (c) generally supportive economic releases. Risk appetite improved throughout the week after concerns surrounding the Middle East eased and oil prices retreated. By the time US market closed for the week: (see above) DJIA : +0.66% (+335.48 to 51,202.26). S&P 500: +0.65% (+47.72 to 7,431.46). Posted 35 new 52-week highs and 10 new 52-week lows. Nasdaq: +0.70% (+179.41 to 25,888.84). Posted 200 ⁠new 52-week highs ​and 112 new 52-week lows. Interestingly, trading volume on US exchanges was marginally lower at 19.73 billio

The ground has completely shifted under the market’s feet, and the short answer is: forget about an imminent pivot. The June 2026 FOMC meeting completely shattered the expectation of rate cuts. With newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh heavily prioritizing stubbornly sticky inflation over labor market performance, the Fed has officially flipped the script. The current macro landscape directly addresses your questions: Are We Going to See More Hikes, or an Imminent Pivot? Expect hikes, not a pivot. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in June, but their "dot plot" revealed a stark hawkish shift: 9 out of 18 officials now anticipate at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Major institutions are rapidly adjusting to this reality: The Fed's Outlook: Core PCE inflation forecasts for 202

Tech Bloodbath: Fed Repricing and Memory Meltdown Crater SOXL 23% — Is the AI Dream Resetting? The market just delivered a brutal reality check to tech bulls. The Nasdaq plunged 3.29%, but the real devastation hit the semiconductor space, where SOXL cratered an eye-watering 23%. Tech is caught in a vicious double blow from Fed rate repricing and a sudden memory sector meltdown. With yesterday's hawkish FOMC shockwaves continuing to linger, the era of easy liquidity for momentum trades is facing a severe stress test. This isn't just a routine red day; it is a structural repricing of risk assets. 1️⃣ The Vicious "Software-to-Hardware" Unwind We are currently witnessing a violent rebalancing in the "software-to-hardware, growth-to-value" rotation that has been aggressively underway since last

Everyone thinks the market is pulling back because fundamentals are weakening. They’re wrong. 📉🛑 Let’s cut through the noise. Yes, we’ve seen a pullback. Yes, I took a small hit myself this week—but I’m not losing a second of sleep over it. Here is the objective reality: The market just surged a massive 6,000 points from its early June lows. What we are experiencing right now isn't a crash; it hasn’t even broken the major moving averages. It is simply a market taking a well-deserved breath after sprinting to all-time highs. A lot of you are paralyzed, wondering if this is a "fake breakout." Market Insight: A true fake breakout is a sudden, violent trap after a long consolidation. What we have today is a structurally healthy rest. Don't let normal volatility shake you out of a generational

At first glance, today's session looked uneventful. $美光科技(MU)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $闪迪(SNDK)$ The S&P 500 finished nearly flat, suggesting the market was simply consolidating after recent volatility. But beneath the surface, something much more important happened. The market wasn't selling technology. It was repricing different types of technology. During the trading session, Apple became one of the biggest drags on the major indices. Concerns over higher product pricing and its potential impact on consumer demand pressured the stock. Given Apple's enormou

【Money Market Fund】 US$ MMF Net 7-day Yield: +3.61%* During the week, markets processed signals from the June FOMC and Chair Warsh’s debut. HSBC highlights four near-term impacts: a hawkish inflation stance may push front-end yields higher, Warsh’s focus on inflation responsibility supports curve flattening, reduced forward guidance increases front-end volatility, and while balance sheet policy is steady, further QT remains possible. Looking ahead to the week, ongoing Fedspeak and geopolitical developments remain in focus. * Data as of 2026/06/18. 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal. 【REITs】 S$ SRT YTD total return: ‑3.80% As of 19 Jun 2026 (Fri), $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S$(SRT.SI)$ declined 0.54% WTD in SGD,

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East saw renewed uncertainties over the past weekend, ultimately failing to reach a comprehensive agreement. However, considering that the market's sensitivity has significantly dulled, unless hostilities officially resume, this is not expected to disrupt the performance of most assets. Recently, we can shift our focus toward the foreign exchange market. Taking the US Dollar Index (DXY) as a reference, the price action is currently hovering near a crucial watershed level. Based on our long-term bearish view on the dollar, there is reason to suspect that new selling opportunities may emerge, and the DXY itself faces the risk of a bull trap. Earlier this year, the dollar once approached its 10-year long-term trendline, but the bulls ultimately defended thi

Yesterday I talked about a few names I was looking to accumulate on weakness. Today, the catalysts are already starting to emerge. This is exactly why investing isn't about chasing headlines. It's about identifying where capital is going before the market fully prices it in. Most investors wait for the good news and then buy. The problem is that by the time the story becomes obvious, a large part of the upside is usually gone. The biggest returns often come from owning the right assets before the narrative becomes consensus. My core thesis remains unchanged: AI infrastructure spending is still expanding. Data center investment is still accelerating. And the companies building the backbone of the AI economy are still being underestimated. 🔹 $NOK $诺基亚(NO

The sharp reversal we just saw after the post-FOMC selloff highlights a massive tug-of-war in this market. On one side, you have a distinctly hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh signaling rate hikes; on the other, you have powerhouse corporate earnings and a relentless secular boom in AI and hardware. To determine whether this is true resilience or a "fake bounce" ahead of a deeper drop, we have to look closely at the data mechanics driving the price action. What Is Sustaining the Resilience? The core factor preventing a total macro meltdown is simple: unprecedented dispersion and earnings power. The macro backdrop is heavy, but single-stock fundamentals—particularly in tech—are acting as a massive structural buffer. The Semiconductor Complex: This is the undisputed anchor

With rising expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement will be signed, the market appears to have temporarily escaped the shadow of inflation, and U.S. equities have finally welcomed a long-overdue rebound. Many investors may feel this is the time to buy the dip. However, I want to caution: do not yet let your guard down. The market's volatile phase has not passed. The current gains in U.S. stocks remain unstable, and the first leg of the crude oil bearish rally may already be complete. We need to patiently wait for the November 19 ceasefire agreement signing results and specific details to materialize before the market can potentially launch a new bearish phase. More importantly, for both the fragile rebound in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasuries, adopting a selling-options strateg