To The Moon

It's unlikely that the market will double, as Trump suggests, in the short term. While his policies, like tax cuts and deregulation, did stimulate growth during his presidency, markets are affected by numerous factors, including global economic conditions, interest rates, and geopolitical events. A doubling of the market would require sustained and substantial economic growth, which is not guaranteed. Additionally, market performance often involves cycles of correction and volatility. So, while optimism is important, doubling the market seems overly ambitious without considering the broader complexities that influence economic outcomes.

It's unlikely that the market will double, as hesuggests, in the short term. markets are affected by numerous factors, including global economic conditions, interest rates, and geopolitical events. A doubling of the market would require sustained and substantial economic growth, which is not guaranteed. Additionally, market performance often involves cycles of correction and volatility. So, while optimism is important, doubling the market seems overly ambitious without considering the broader complexities that influence economic outcomes.

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

When I first bought TLT, I didn’t imagine it would become the largest holding in my portfolio. It didn’t promise overnight riches. It didn’t trend on social media. It was, quite literally, a basket of long-term U.S. government bonds — about as exciting as watching paint dry. And yet, here I am. TLT now sits at the top of my portfolio, quietly occupying the biggest space in both my investments and my thoughts. Not Tesla. Not Nvidia. Not some exciting AI startup. No. Bonds. Long. Slow. Boring. Beautiful. My average price is around $90.76. Today, it trades near $87.93. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) On paper, that looks like a loss. If you stopped there, this would be a sad story. The Plot Twist: Dividends But portfolios, like life, are rarely that simple. Because despite the lower

TACO trades work because policy shocks usually don’t affect company earnings much.

Maybe his friends or family would have made some quick bucks each taco 

TACO is still a useful tactical buy-the-dip signal in 2026, but it works best when policy headlines fade and liquidity stays supportive, so I’d treat it as a timing tool, not a full thesis. With the S&P 500 back to flat YTD, double-digit gains in 3 months is possible but not the base case. I’d frame it as +4% to +8% unless we get multiple upside catalysts (clean earnings beats + softer inflation + clearer rate-cut path). Rotation: I’d still anchor in S&P 500 (quality + AI leaders), and only add Russell 2000 tactically if: yields stop rising, USD cools off, and breadth improves (small caps need easier financial conditions). My plan: Core long SPY/QQQ, buy dips on headline-driven flushes, keep dry powder, and add IWM only on a breakout + falling yields. Not financial advice.

This looks like a classic TACO-style relief rally, but it is not “risk-off is over”. The key is: Trump headlines can remove fear fast, but they can also reprice risk even faster the next day. So volatility stays structurally elevated. Relief rally or more risk? Near-term: relief rally is real (positioning + short-covering + “worst case avoided”). But forward risk remains high because the market is now trading a headline-driven policy put that can disappear anytime. So it is relief rally with a constant tail-risk overhang. --- Best trade to capture Trump volatility (cleanest expression) Long volatility via options (straddle/strangle) on SPY or QQQ This captures: sudden “tariff / geopolitics” shock-down moves sudden “walkback / clarification” rip-up moves Why it fits: you are not betting dir

Originally I thought there was the possibility to see a rally aka double digit gain in the next 3 months, but with all the stunts from Trump administration, I am super uncertain now.

Trump’s recent “TACO moment” (tariff threat + U-turn), the resulting global markets rally, and what it could mean for labour markets and interest rates. In this article, we would like to share how we can look at it in a a clear, evidence-based update. What happened: the “TACO moment” and tariff U-turn Tariff threat and reversal (“TACO trade”) Markets initially sold off after Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on European countries tied to a push over Greenland. The sell-off was significant because it raised fears of escalating trade tensions and potential retaliation. However, Trump subsequently walked back the tariff threat after announcing a framework for cooperation with NATO on Greenland — effectively postponing or canceling the tariffs that were to start on February 1. This revers

yes I am certainly betting on it.  the TACO effect has flushed down a lot of stocks, especially software. this could be the last flush down to take out stop losses and shake all the weak hands. after this, market climbs and brings everyone up. thats my guess.

🌟🌟🌟Surprisingly the TACO pattern has been remarkably reliable but not infallible and its usefulness depends on whether Trump driven tariff volatility continues to behave in the same way. What the data has shown is that the TACO pattern (Trump Always Chickens Out) has produced repeatable, profitable dip buying opportunities whenever tariff threats triggered sharp sell offs, followed by policy reversals that sparked relief rallies. The latest episode like the Greenland tariff scare is a great example of a TACO pattern. However some analysts have cautioned that the TACO Trade may not always work especially if the markets become desensitised or if a deeper sell off is needed to influence policy. In other words, the TACO pattern has been reliable as long as the political behaviour behind it st

🌟🌟🌟Every market has its folklore but only one has TACO Man - the mythical trader born from the Trump era tariff cycle, where a single tweet could send futures plunging before a "clarification" magically reversed the damage.  Traders eventually stopped calling it chaos and started calling it a pattern.  Like all great patterns, it comes with a mascot. TACO Man isn't a person.  He is the embodiment of that rhythm : Tariff threat ⏩Anxiety ⏩ Clarification ⏩ Optimism. A full market mood swing served on a warm tortilla.  Now with 2026's tariff drama fading and the S&P500 erasing its losses, the TACO cycle has once again delivered its signature move: Fear first, then rally later. Earnings remain strong, liquidity is still supportive and volatility is cooling.&nbs

yes double digits gain. stick to s and p

1. The taco pattern is a reliable strategy for buying us stocks at cheap prices 2. The outlook for the us economy is highly negative at this time which reduces the likelihood of double digit returns 3. Sp500 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ tends to outperform the broader Russell 2000 index

From my perspective, the “TACO” pattern still works as a tactical signal when it’s backed by real policy reversals and strong market breadth. This episode reinforced the idea that policy risk is negotiable, not structural, making sentiment-driven pullbacks attractive buy-the-dip opportunities. With the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ now erasing its early-2026 losses, I think double-digit gains over the next three months are achievable, even if volatility persists. Earnings remain the backbone of this move, and improving breadth suggests the rally is healthy rather than narrowly driven. Positioning-wise, I’m keeping the S&P 500 as my core exposure while selectively adding higher-beta names. New highs in small caps are encouraging, but I pref

On January 21, 2026, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ logged one of its largest single-day gains since last November. Trump quickly reversed the market’s early-year slump after announcing at the Davos forum a delay of the tariffs on Europe originally scheduled for February 1, and claiming that a “framework agreement” had been reached on Greenland. Markets interpreted this pivot as a classic “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) moment—where extreme pressure triggers sharp volatility, followed by a White House retreat or compromise. Historically,“TACO trades” have often been followed by strong upside. Looking back to the April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff, the S&P 500 suffered only a brief pullback before policy delays sparked a nearly 40% rally spanning into

You’re reading it correctly: this looks like a classic “headline shock → risk-off → walk-back → risk-on” loop, which is exactly why the “TACO” narrative keeps resurfacing. 1) Relief rally… or more risk ahead? Near-term: relief rally is real. When a geopolitical tail-risk gets verbally de-escalated, markets naturally: unwind safe-haven bids (gold/silver pullback), re-risk into equities, compress volatility. But structurally: risk remains. The bigger issue is not Greenland itself. It is the policy headline regime: rapid statements, fast reversals, unclear “final” policy, markets forced to reprice in hours, not weeks. So the base case is: relief rallies happen, but they are fragile and often fade into choppy, headline-driven tape. --- 2) Until the next policy headline hits? Yes. In this envir

DJT must be kidding. The only factor that he can bring in is volatility and stupidity.The markets might still double or whatever but that would be inspite of this clown 🤡 and not because of him.

Trump is the grand master of market manipulator. He probably bought the dip before he taco.

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

When I first bought TLT, I didn’t imagine it would become the largest holding in my portfolio. It didn’t promise overnight riches. It didn’t trend on social media. It was, quite literally, a basket of long-term U.S. government bonds — about as exciting as watching paint dry. And yet, here I am. TLT now sits at the top of my portfolio, quietly occupying the biggest space in both my investments and my thoughts. Not Tesla. Not Nvidia. Not some exciting AI startup. No. Bonds. Long. Slow. Boring. Beautiful. My average price is around $90.76. Today, it trades near $87.93. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) On paper, that looks like a loss. If you stopped there, this would be a sad story. The Plot Twist: Dividends But portfolios, like life, are rarely that simple. Because despite the lower

It's unlikely that the market will double, as Trump suggests, in the short term. While his policies, like tax cuts and deregulation, did stimulate growth during his presidency, markets are affected by numerous factors, including global economic conditions, interest rates, and geopolitical events. A doubling of the market would require sustained and substantial economic growth, which is not guaranteed. Additionally, market performance often involves cycles of correction and volatility. So, while optimism is important, doubling the market seems overly ambitious without considering the broader complexities that influence economic outcomes.

It's unlikely that the market will double, as hesuggests, in the short term. markets are affected by numerous factors, including global economic conditions, interest rates, and geopolitical events. A doubling of the market would require sustained and substantial economic growth, which is not guaranteed. Additionally, market performance often involves cycles of correction and volatility. So, while optimism is important, doubling the market seems overly ambitious without considering the broader complexities that influence economic outcomes.

Trump’s recent “TACO moment” (tariff threat + U-turn), the resulting global markets rally, and what it could mean for labour markets and interest rates. In this article, we would like to share how we can look at it in a a clear, evidence-based update. What happened: the “TACO moment” and tariff U-turn Tariff threat and reversal (“TACO trade”) Markets initially sold off after Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on European countries tied to a push over Greenland. The sell-off was significant because it raised fears of escalating trade tensions and potential retaliation. However, Trump subsequently walked back the tariff threat after announcing a framework for cooperation with NATO on Greenland — effectively postponing or canceling the tariffs that were to start on February 1. This revers

TACO trades work because policy shocks usually don’t affect company earnings much.

On January 21, 2026, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ logged one of its largest single-day gains since last November. Trump quickly reversed the market’s early-year slump after announcing at the Davos forum a delay of the tariffs on Europe originally scheduled for February 1, and claiming that a “framework agreement” had been reached on Greenland. Markets interpreted this pivot as a classic “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) moment—where extreme pressure triggers sharp volatility, followed by a White House retreat or compromise. Historically,“TACO trades” have often been followed by strong upside. Looking back to the April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff, the S&P 500 suffered only a brief pullback before policy delays sparked a nearly 40% rally spanning into

🌟🌟🌟Every market has its folklore but only one has TACO Man - the mythical trader born from the Trump era tariff cycle, where a single tweet could send futures plunging before a "clarification" magically reversed the damage.  Traders eventually stopped calling it chaos and started calling it a pattern.  Like all great patterns, it comes with a mascot. TACO Man isn't a person.  He is the embodiment of that rhythm : Tariff threat ⏩Anxiety ⏩ Clarification ⏩ Optimism. A full market mood swing served on a warm tortilla.  Now with 2026's tariff drama fading and the S&P500 erasing its losses, the TACO cycle has once again delivered its signature move: Fear first, then rally later. Earnings remain strong, liquidity is still supportive and volatility is cooling.&nbs

TACO is still a useful tactical buy-the-dip signal in 2026, but it works best when policy headlines fade and liquidity stays supportive, so I’d treat it as a timing tool, not a full thesis. With the S&P 500 back to flat YTD, double-digit gains in 3 months is possible but not the base case. I’d frame it as +4% to +8% unless we get multiple upside catalysts (clean earnings beats + softer inflation + clearer rate-cut path). Rotation: I’d still anchor in S&P 500 (quality + AI leaders), and only add Russell 2000 tactically if: yields stop rising, USD cools off, and breadth improves (small caps need easier financial conditions). My plan: Core long SPY/QQQ, buy dips on headline-driven flushes, keep dry powder, and add IWM only on a breakout + falling yields. Not financial advice.

Political statements and geopolitical events, especially those involving figures like Donald Trump, significantly influence market volatility and various asset classes. Market Volatility and "TACO" Narrative Donald Trump's tariff threats have historically been a major source of market volatility. The market has observed a pattern, dubbed "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO), where Trump initially issues threats that cause market plunges, only to soften his rhetoric or pull back, leading to a market recovery. This pattern suggests that market sell-offs due to Trump's initial aggressive stances can sometimes be followed by market recoveries. However, new threats, such as those related to the acquisition of Greenland, have reignited concerns about renewed trade wars and volatility, impacting U.

This looks like a classic TACO-style relief rally, but it is not “risk-off is over”. The key is: Trump headlines can remove fear fast, but they can also reprice risk even faster the next day. So volatility stays structurally elevated. Relief rally or more risk? Near-term: relief rally is real (positioning + short-covering + “worst case avoided”). But forward risk remains high because the market is now trading a headline-driven policy put that can disappear anytime. So it is relief rally with a constant tail-risk overhang. --- Best trade to capture Trump volatility (cleanest expression) Long volatility via options (straddle/strangle) on SPY or QQQ This captures: sudden “tariff / geopolitics” shock-down moves sudden “walkback / clarification” rip-up moves Why it fits: you are not betting dir

Maybe his friends or family would have made some quick bucks each taco 

You’re reading it correctly: this looks like a classic “headline shock → risk-off → walk-back → risk-on” loop, which is exactly why the “TACO” narrative keeps resurfacing. 1) Relief rally… or more risk ahead? Near-term: relief rally is real. When a geopolitical tail-risk gets verbally de-escalated, markets naturally: unwind safe-haven bids (gold/silver pullback), re-risk into equities, compress volatility. But structurally: risk remains. The bigger issue is not Greenland itself. It is the policy headline regime: rapid statements, fast reversals, unclear “final” policy, markets forced to reprice in hours, not weeks. So the base case is: relief rallies happen, but they are fragile and often fade into choppy, headline-driven tape. --- 2) Until the next policy headline hits? Yes. In this envir

The market has really not stopped recently. One side is Greenland-related geopolitical issues are making waves again, the other side isJapan's uncertain fiscal outlook directly ignites selling sentiment in global bond markets。 The "pretending that the years are quiet", which lasted for several weeks, was instantly broken. Investor confidence in U.S. policy is beginning to loosen. "Sell America ( Sell U.S.)"This old script has been turned out again by the market. Risk aversion is heating up rapidly, and global risk assets are collectively under pressure. This is no longer just a matter of an emergency, but the market's response toFuture uncertainty is obviously on the riseThe real reaction of.As soon as the market opened on Tuesday, the U.S. stock market directly gave everyone a show ⚠ ️ ——

The "Ice Cold" War: Why the US Wants Greenland and Which Stocks Win 🇺🇸🇬🇱 You might have seen the headlines about the US wanting to "buy" Greenland. It sounds like a meme, or a real estate joke, but let me tell you: smart money is taking this dead seriously. This isn't about acquiring new territory for vacation homes. This is about the single most critical geopolitical chessboard of the next decade. We are talking about the shortest missile path from Russia, the future of global shipping, and the only viable alternative to China’s rare earth dominance. For investors, the battle for Greenland isn’t just politics—it’s a roadmap for sector rotation. Here is why this frozen island is heating up the market. 1️⃣ The Ultimate Shield: North America’s "Front Line" First, look at a polar projection m

🌟🌟🌟Surprisingly the TACO pattern has been remarkably reliable but not infallible and its usefulness depends on whether Trump driven tariff volatility continues to behave in the same way. What the data has shown is that the TACO pattern (Trump Always Chickens Out) has produced repeatable, profitable dip buying opportunities whenever tariff threats triggered sharp sell offs, followed by policy reversals that sparked relief rallies. The latest episode like the Greenland tariff scare is a great example of a TACO pattern. However some analysts have cautioned that the TACO Trade may not always work especially if the markets become desensitised or if a deeper sell off is needed to influence policy. In other words, the TACO pattern has been reliable as long as the political behaviour behind it st

He did it again. This morning on Truth Social, Trump dropped the hammer: 10% tariffs on EIGHT European countries starting February 1st, jumping to 25% by June 1st unless Europe finally gives him satisfaction on Greenland. Markets instantly puked: • Stoxx 600 futures -4.1% in the overnight session 😱 • DAX futures -4.8% • CAC 40 futures -5.2% • Nasdaq futures -3.4%, S&P futures -2.7% • Gold ripping to $2,678 (new weekly high) 🏆 • Silver +6.8% in 24 hours • 10-year yield back above 4.52% as tariff inflation fears return Classic Trump playbook — threaten the absolute maximum, watch everything burn for a few days, then declare victory and suspend it the moment he extracts any concession. We’ve seen this movie so many times the script is tattooed on our eyeballs: May 30, 2019 → Threatens 5%

US stocks opened sharply lower, with $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunging 1.5%. Mega-cap tech stocks weakened broadly: Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, and Meta all fell more than 2%, while Alphabet and Microsoft slid nearly 2%, and Apple declined close to 1%.It has been one year since Donald Trump returned to the White House. On the surface, markets have delivered a solid outcome, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 16% over the past year. Yet beneath that headline number lies a roller-coaster market defined by sharp drawdowns followed by repeated record highs.Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. will impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries starting Feb 1, with the threat of raising them to 25% by June 1 if a “Greenland deal” is not reached. Markets r

Last week’s macro framework is still working this week, and Trump has kicked off yet another farce: he floated the idea of purchasing Greenland from Europe and also imposed tariffs on eight European countries that opposed him.​ The situation has become even more turbulent.Why Trump Threatened 11 Countries in Just Two Weeks: The Dollar on the Edge Tells the StoryThis is almost certainly not the last step in Trump’s external provocation, but it is very likely an important move within his broader foreign strategy.​Today, let’s take a little time to briefly discuss the logic behind the Greenland dispute.First, one point must be clarified: why is Trump deliberately stirring trouble in his own “backyard”?​ One day it’s Venezu

This kind of Trump-driven risk-off usually burns hot but not long, because tariffs (and tariff threats) tend to be used as leverage, and markets quickly start pricing a “walk-back” probability. 1) How long will the sell-off last? Base case: 1 to 5 trading days of pressure, then either stabilisation or a partial rebound. Typical pattern: Day 0 to 2: Shock headlines, risk-off positioning, equities down, gold up, yields jump on inflation/tariff risk. Day 3 to 5: Markets “re-price” from panic to probabilities (how real, how enforceable, how much carve-out). Week 2 to 4: Either a relief bounce (if softening signals appear) or a grind lower (if policy actions actually start hitting data and earnings). If the administration formalises the tariff schedule and companies start guiding to margin hits