To The Moon

GG Too risky my friends.  $SPXW 20260128 6920.0 PUT$  Maybe next time I'll buy $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  or $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ . Should have bought $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$  

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Historically, breaking all-time highs has often preceded further gains rather than immediate reversals. Studies of periods following new record closes show the index posting positive returns in the large majority of cases over subsequent 3–12 months and longer horizons, with average forward gains in the double digits in some analyses (e.g., positive in 13 of 14 observed instances in one review, averaging ~14%). Bull markets can persist for years once momentum builds, supported by compounding earnings growth, especially in a tech/AI-led environment. Supportive factors for further upside: Continued strong corporate earnings growth (particularly in Magnificent 7/tech sectors driving recent rallies). Stable or declining rates post-

The S&P 500 (SPX) has advanced to a new all-time high, confirming that the bullish sequence from the November 21, 2025 low remains intact. This breakout favors more upside in the near term. The rally from that low is unfolding in a clear five-wave structure, consistent with Elliott Wave analysis. Wave ((i)) ended at 6986.33, marking the first leg of strength. The pullback in wave ((ii)) developed as a zigzag correction. Within this phase, wave (a) ended at 6885.74, wave (b) rallied to 6979.34, and wave (c) declined to 6788.03. This completed wave ((ii)) at a higher degree. From there, the index resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Wave (i) advanced to 6934.75, while wave (ii) pulled back to 6895.5. Momentum carried wave (iii) to 6988.82. A short-term pullback in wave (iv) is expected, but b

As 2025 Q4 earnings season enters its most critical week in late January 2026, the US stock market stands at a crossroads of multiple narratives. This week, more than 100 S&P 500 components are scheduled to report their results.I. S&P 500 Status Quo: 10 Consecutive Quarters of Growth and Valuation ChallengesAccording to the latest FactSet data, the performance of the S&P 500 for Q4 2025 is characterized by steady growth but a declining "surprise factor":Earnings Performance: The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 currently stands at 8.2%. If this holds, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.Revenue Growth: The blended revenue growth rate is 7.8%, representing the second-highest growth rate for the index since Q3

U.S. stocks delivered a mixed performance on Tuesday, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closing at a new record as investors looked past uneven earnings results and positioned ahead of a critical Federal Reserve decision and a wave of Big Tech earnings. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 6,978, marking its fifth consecutive gain and a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9%, pushing the tech-heavy index close to its own record level. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 409 points (-0.8%), weighed down heavily by losses in healthcare stocks. Healthcare Drags the Dow Lower The Dow’s decline was largely driven by UnitedHealth Group, which sank after reporting disappointing quarterly earnings. The stock was further pressured by rep

FOMC Preview: Powell Holds the Line, Trump Sets the Future The January FOMC conference is due to be held on the Wednesday, 28th of January 2:30pm Eastern Time, but the "no cut" decision is already priced in. While $S&P 500(.SPX)$   holds firm and $XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$   breaks out, high-beta names like $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   are trading on earnings, not macro. The real story is President Trump's Davos hint of an imminent, "ve

On 23 Jan 2026, the American business landscape finds itself at a volatile crossroads. Fresh off the TACO boat on Greenland saga, news arrived that Trump has filed a $5 billion lawsuit against $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and its CEO, Jamie Dimon. (see below) This marks a significant escalation in the administration’s war against what it terms "woke capitalism" and the practice of "debanking". Does this action by Trump indicate a wider strategy against US financial sector? Let’s see. The JPMorgan Lawsuit. The “shot across the bow” lawsuit, filed alleges that US #1 bank - JPMorgan Chase closed Trump’s personal and business accounts in early 2021, purely for political reasons, effectively "blacklisting" Trump from the global financial system.   Just

Thanks to Trump my stock mostly in green zone

Yea definitely TACO is Trump card. He play it very well

It's unlikely that the market will double, as Trump suggests, in the short term. While his policies, like tax cuts and deregulation, did stimulate growth during his presidency, markets are affected by numerous factors, including global economic conditions, interest rates, and geopolitical events. A doubling of the market would require sustained and substantial economic growth, which is not guaranteed. Additionally, market performance often involves cycles of correction and volatility. So, while optimism is important, doubling the market seems overly ambitious without considering the broader complexities that influence economic outcomes.

It's unlikely that the market will double, as hesuggests, in the short term. markets are affected by numerous factors, including global economic conditions, interest rates, and geopolitical events. A doubling of the market would require sustained and substantial economic growth, which is not guaranteed. Additionally, market performance often involves cycles of correction and volatility. So, while optimism is important, doubling the market seems overly ambitious without considering the broader complexities that influence economic outcomes.

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

When I first bought TLT, I didn’t imagine it would become the largest holding in my portfolio. It didn’t promise overnight riches. It didn’t trend on social media. It was, quite literally, a basket of long-term U.S. government bonds — about as exciting as watching paint dry. And yet, here I am. TLT now sits at the top of my portfolio, quietly occupying the biggest space in both my investments and my thoughts. Not Tesla. Not Nvidia. Not some exciting AI startup. No. Bonds. Long. Slow. Boring. Beautiful. My average price is around $90.76. Today, it trades near $87.93. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) On paper, that looks like a loss. If you stopped there, this would be a sad story. The Plot Twist: Dividends But portfolios, like life, are rarely that simple. Because despite the lower

TACO trades work because policy shocks usually don’t affect company earnings much.

Maybe his friends or family would have made some quick bucks each taco 

TACO is still a useful tactical buy-the-dip signal in 2026, but it works best when policy headlines fade and liquidity stays supportive, so I’d treat it as a timing tool, not a full thesis. With the S&P 500 back to flat YTD, double-digit gains in 3 months is possible but not the base case. I’d frame it as +4% to +8% unless we get multiple upside catalysts (clean earnings beats + softer inflation + clearer rate-cut path). Rotation: I’d still anchor in S&P 500 (quality + AI leaders), and only add Russell 2000 tactically if: yields stop rising, USD cools off, and breadth improves (small caps need easier financial conditions). My plan: Core long SPY/QQQ, buy dips on headline-driven flushes, keep dry powder, and add IWM only on a breakout + falling yields. Not financial advice.

This looks like a classic TACO-style relief rally, but it is not “risk-off is over”. The key is: Trump headlines can remove fear fast, but they can also reprice risk even faster the next day. So volatility stays structurally elevated. Relief rally or more risk? Near-term: relief rally is real (positioning + short-covering + “worst case avoided”). But forward risk remains high because the market is now trading a headline-driven policy put that can disappear anytime. So it is relief rally with a constant tail-risk overhang. --- Best trade to capture Trump volatility (cleanest expression) Long volatility via options (straddle/strangle) on SPY or QQQ This captures: sudden “tariff / geopolitics” shock-down moves sudden “walkback / clarification” rip-up moves Why it fits: you are not betting dir

Originally I thought there was the possibility to see a rally aka double digit gain in the next 3 months, but with all the stunts from Trump administration, I am super uncertain now.

Trump’s recent “TACO moment” (tariff threat + U-turn), the resulting global markets rally, and what it could mean for labour markets and interest rates. In this article, we would like to share how we can look at it in a a clear, evidence-based update. What happened: the “TACO moment” and tariff U-turn Tariff threat and reversal (“TACO trade”) Markets initially sold off after Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on European countries tied to a push over Greenland. The sell-off was significant because it raised fears of escalating trade tensions and potential retaliation. However, Trump subsequently walked back the tariff threat after announcing a framework for cooperation with NATO on Greenland — effectively postponing or canceling the tariffs that were to start on February 1. This revers

yes I am certainly betting on it.  the TACO effect has flushed down a lot of stocks, especially software. this could be the last flush down to take out stop losses and shake all the weak hands. after this, market climbs and brings everyone up. thats my guess.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Historically, breaking all-time highs has often preceded further gains rather than immediate reversals. Studies of periods following new record closes show the index posting positive returns in the large majority of cases over subsequent 3–12 months and longer horizons, with average forward gains in the double digits in some analyses (e.g., positive in 13 of 14 observed instances in one review, averaging ~14%). Bull markets can persist for years once momentum builds, supported by compounding earnings growth, especially in a tech/AI-led environment. Supportive factors for further upside: Continued strong corporate earnings growth (particularly in Magnificent 7/tech sectors driving recent rallies). Stable or declining rates post-

U.S. stocks delivered a mixed performance on Tuesday, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closing at a new record as investors looked past uneven earnings results and positioned ahead of a critical Federal Reserve decision and a wave of Big Tech earnings. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 6,978, marking its fifth consecutive gain and a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9%, pushing the tech-heavy index close to its own record level. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 409 points (-0.8%), weighed down heavily by losses in healthcare stocks. Healthcare Drags the Dow Lower The Dow’s decline was largely driven by UnitedHealth Group, which sank after reporting disappointing quarterly earnings. The stock was further pressured by rep

FOMC Preview: Powell Holds the Line, Trump Sets the Future The January FOMC conference is due to be held on the Wednesday, 28th of January 2:30pm Eastern Time, but the "no cut" decision is already priced in. While $S&P 500(.SPX)$   holds firm and $XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$   breaks out, high-beta names like $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   are trading on earnings, not macro. The real story is President Trump's Davos hint of an imminent, "ve

As 2025 Q4 earnings season enters its most critical week in late January 2026, the US stock market stands at a crossroads of multiple narratives. This week, more than 100 S&P 500 components are scheduled to report their results.I. S&P 500 Status Quo: 10 Consecutive Quarters of Growth and Valuation ChallengesAccording to the latest FactSet data, the performance of the S&P 500 for Q4 2025 is characterized by steady growth but a declining "surprise factor":Earnings Performance: The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 currently stands at 8.2%. If this holds, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.Revenue Growth: The blended revenue growth rate is 7.8%, representing the second-highest growth rate for the index since Q3

GG Too risky my friends.  $SPXW 20260128 6920.0 PUT$  Maybe next time I'll buy $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  or $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ . Should have bought $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$  

On 23 Jan 2026, the American business landscape finds itself at a volatile crossroads. Fresh off the TACO boat on Greenland saga, news arrived that Trump has filed a $5 billion lawsuit against $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and its CEO, Jamie Dimon. (see below) This marks a significant escalation in the administration’s war against what it terms "woke capitalism" and the practice of "debanking". Does this action by Trump indicate a wider strategy against US financial sector? Let’s see. The JPMorgan Lawsuit. The “shot across the bow” lawsuit, filed alleges that US #1 bank - JPMorgan Chase closed Trump’s personal and business accounts in early 2021, purely for political reasons, effectively "blacklisting" Trump from the global financial system.   Just

The S&P 500 (SPX) has advanced to a new all-time high, confirming that the bullish sequence from the November 21, 2025 low remains intact. This breakout favors more upside in the near term. The rally from that low is unfolding in a clear five-wave structure, consistent with Elliott Wave analysis. Wave ((i)) ended at 6986.33, marking the first leg of strength. The pullback in wave ((ii)) developed as a zigzag correction. Within this phase, wave (a) ended at 6885.74, wave (b) rallied to 6979.34, and wave (c) declined to 6788.03. This completed wave ((ii)) at a higher degree. From there, the index resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Wave (i) advanced to 6934.75, while wave (ii) pulled back to 6895.5. Momentum carried wave (iii) to 6988.82. A short-term pullback in wave (iv) is expected, but b

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

When I first bought TLT, I didn’t imagine it would become the largest holding in my portfolio. It didn’t promise overnight riches. It didn’t trend on social media. It was, quite literally, a basket of long-term U.S. government bonds — about as exciting as watching paint dry. And yet, here I am. TLT now sits at the top of my portfolio, quietly occupying the biggest space in both my investments and my thoughts. Not Tesla. Not Nvidia. Not some exciting AI startup. No. Bonds. Long. Slow. Boring. Beautiful. My average price is around $90.76. Today, it trades near $87.93. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) On paper, that looks like a loss. If you stopped there, this would be a sad story. The Plot Twist: Dividends But portfolios, like life, are rarely that simple. Because despite the lower

It's unlikely that the market will double, as Trump suggests, in the short term. While his policies, like tax cuts and deregulation, did stimulate growth during his presidency, markets are affected by numerous factors, including global economic conditions, interest rates, and geopolitical events. A doubling of the market would require sustained and substantial economic growth, which is not guaranteed. Additionally, market performance often involves cycles of correction and volatility. So, while optimism is important, doubling the market seems overly ambitious without considering the broader complexities that influence economic outcomes.

It's unlikely that the market will double, as hesuggests, in the short term. markets are affected by numerous factors, including global economic conditions, interest rates, and geopolitical events. A doubling of the market would require sustained and substantial economic growth, which is not guaranteed. Additionally, market performance often involves cycles of correction and volatility. So, while optimism is important, doubling the market seems overly ambitious without considering the broader complexities that influence economic outcomes.

Yea definitely TACO is Trump card. He play it very well

Thanks to Trump my stock mostly in green zone

Trump’s recent “TACO moment” (tariff threat + U-turn), the resulting global markets rally, and what it could mean for labour markets and interest rates. In this article, we would like to share how we can look at it in a a clear, evidence-based update. What happened: the “TACO moment” and tariff U-turn Tariff threat and reversal (“TACO trade”) Markets initially sold off after Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on European countries tied to a push over Greenland. The sell-off was significant because it raised fears of escalating trade tensions and potential retaliation. However, Trump subsequently walked back the tariff threat after announcing a framework for cooperation with NATO on Greenland — effectively postponing or canceling the tariffs that were to start on February 1. This revers

On January 21, 2026, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ logged one of its largest single-day gains since last November. Trump quickly reversed the market’s early-year slump after announcing at the Davos forum a delay of the tariffs on Europe originally scheduled for February 1, and claiming that a “framework agreement” had been reached on Greenland. Markets interpreted this pivot as a classic “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) moment—where extreme pressure triggers sharp volatility, followed by a White House retreat or compromise. Historically,“TACO trades” have often been followed by strong upside. Looking back to the April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff, the S&P 500 suffered only a brief pullback before policy delays sparked a nearly 40% rally spanning into

🌟🌟🌟Every market has its folklore but only one has TACO Man - the mythical trader born from the Trump era tariff cycle, where a single tweet could send futures plunging before a "clarification" magically reversed the damage.  Traders eventually stopped calling it chaos and started calling it a pattern.  Like all great patterns, it comes with a mascot. TACO Man isn't a person.  He is the embodiment of that rhythm : Tariff threat ⏩Anxiety ⏩ Clarification ⏩ Optimism. A full market mood swing served on a warm tortilla.  Now with 2026's tariff drama fading and the S&P500 erasing its losses, the TACO cycle has once again delivered its signature move: Fear first, then rally later. Earnings remain strong, liquidity is still supportive and volatility is cooling.&nbs

TACO trades work because policy shocks usually don’t affect company earnings much.

TACO is still a useful tactical buy-the-dip signal in 2026, but it works best when policy headlines fade and liquidity stays supportive, so I’d treat it as a timing tool, not a full thesis. With the S&P 500 back to flat YTD, double-digit gains in 3 months is possible but not the base case. I’d frame it as +4% to +8% unless we get multiple upside catalysts (clean earnings beats + softer inflation + clearer rate-cut path). Rotation: I’d still anchor in S&P 500 (quality + AI leaders), and only add Russell 2000 tactically if: yields stop rising, USD cools off, and breadth improves (small caps need easier financial conditions). My plan: Core long SPY/QQQ, buy dips on headline-driven flushes, keep dry powder, and add IWM only on a breakout + falling yields. Not financial advice.

Political statements and geopolitical events, especially those involving figures like Donald Trump, significantly influence market volatility and various asset classes. Market Volatility and "TACO" Narrative Donald Trump's tariff threats have historically been a major source of market volatility. The market has observed a pattern, dubbed "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO), where Trump initially issues threats that cause market plunges, only to soften his rhetoric or pull back, leading to a market recovery. This pattern suggests that market sell-offs due to Trump's initial aggressive stances can sometimes be followed by market recoveries. However, new threats, such as those related to the acquisition of Greenland, have reignited concerns about renewed trade wars and volatility, impacting U.

This looks like a classic TACO-style relief rally, but it is not “risk-off is over”. The key is: Trump headlines can remove fear fast, but they can also reprice risk even faster the next day. So volatility stays structurally elevated. Relief rally or more risk? Near-term: relief rally is real (positioning + short-covering + “worst case avoided”). But forward risk remains high because the market is now trading a headline-driven policy put that can disappear anytime. So it is relief rally with a constant tail-risk overhang. --- Best trade to capture Trump volatility (cleanest expression) Long volatility via options (straddle/strangle) on SPY or QQQ This captures: sudden “tariff / geopolitics” shock-down moves sudden “walkback / clarification” rip-up moves Why it fits: you are not betting dir