To The Moon

Summary By themselves, Treasury yields spiking out of control can cause a recession, and October delivered both a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 8% fixed-rate mortgages. We have gotten into a situation where the avalanche of Treasury issuance (due to a last minute debt ceiling deal) is overwhelming investors. The U.S. Treasury had to issue more debt because they could not issue any debt before the debt ceiling deal. Ralf Hahn By themselves, Treasury yields spiking out of control can cause a recession, and October delivered both a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 8% fixed-rate mortgages. We have gotten into a situation where the avalanche of Treasury issuance (due to a last minute debt ceiling deal) is overwhelming investors. The U.S. Treasury had to issue more debt bec

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day November policy meeting on Wednesday, with broad expectations that the central bank will hold interest rates unchanged this time but potentially signal additional hikes ahead as it fights stubborn inflation. The Fed’s policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will offer critical clues on the future path of rates. Markets widely anticipate the Fed maintaining its current target fed funds rate range of 5.25% to 5.50%, following four straight 0.75 percentage point increases. However, the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability means further tightening can’t yet be ruled out with inflation still running hot. The policy decision will be announced at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. While rat

U.S. stocks moved higher Wednesday morning as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, set for release this afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 181 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%. Information technology stocks led the market higher, with semiconductor names like Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology surging on upbeat guidance. The rally came despite mixed economic data showing a contraction in manufacturing activity but a slight uptick in job openings in September. All eyes are on the Fed’s 2 p.m. policy statement, which is expected to maintain rates steady following four consecutive 0.75 percentage point hikes. Traders anticipate the Fed will signal plans to slow its a

Nope not for now[Smile]  

Pause as inflation is not increasing as much

[Miser]Hello Tigers,The once-anticipated "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" market for U.S. stocks did not materialize as expected this year. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ set a record for its longest monthly losing streak since March 2020.As of the close on October 31, the performances of popular stock markets in October are as follows: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $DJIA(.DJI)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ , $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ Among them, the performance of each sector of $S&P 50

SPX $S&P 500(.SPX)$ stocks above 200ema (2x1)dly - From our confluent targets, we have printed an "X". Want to move back above 30.00 to suggest a more positive outlook. Moving back above 50.00 would be considered bullish.Image

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The Mkt might be tradable up to the 4,300 level, but I wouldn't set up camp just yet:Middle East crisis appears contained-- Remains to be seen. Highly dependent on the role the Saudis play. With all the military traffic hanging out by the Suez, I can't image that these are optimal conditions for energy transporters.Room For Inflation To Surprise Lower (energy/shelter prices)-- Inflation is either set to reaccelerate or stay at current elevated levels; housing starts are bouncing, Q3 GDP was hot (without the proportionate tax receipts), retail sales surging, Durable Goods Orders up, UAW strike about over, wages still growing, IP up.Fed Is Likel

On August 7th, I posted the following chart…SPX_VIXAnd made the following comment…“Over the last 5 years, we’ve had 4 instances where the VIX $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ has declined to very low levels thus creating the wedge patterns you see in the lower panel of the chart (remember, the lower panel is inverted so “very low levels” on the VIX correspond to elevated levels on the VIX in the chart).When those wedge patterns broke, it was typically not very good for the S&P 500.We need to watch the VIX, and especially the 15-day moving average, in the coming days and weeks.”Fast forward, and here is the updated chart.SPX_VIX2Note that the VIX did break out of its wedge pattern (highlighted with the yellow circle) and as expected, the S&

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ it's hard to say exactly what is happening. On one hand futures look to be ready to go up, on the other hand, QQQ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ looks like it could pullback to it's gap. I'm not sure what's going to happen. We may get a severe bear trap followed by a rally.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Feel like some sort of surprise is coming.Hope I am wrong.Just has a feel about it that something is close to happening.I do not know what the news is. And since I do not know I'm not going to make guesses. I stay in my lane - but the moves implied here are usually news driven.Hope isn't a trade plan, but I really hope we don't see some horrible news. I'm not cheerleading it - I'm just saying it's to be expected if there's a market break.

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Here is the trick, one way or the other this pair daily candle will close bullish. Entry at 14263.2 stops below 14158.3 targets 14634.5I cracked the algoNQ should also have support at the yellow line, another reason I'm suspicious even though I think a down move is likely.

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closes October -2.2% and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -2%. This correction still looks and feels similar to the severe corrections that occurred in 2022. Relief rallies find rejection at the moving averages, and breadth remains consistently negative. This is in the lower panel of the chart. Next week is 9 consecutive weeks of negative market breadth. The "below the surface" part of the market has been detonated. So long as price remains below and rejected by this short term moving average I do not think the correction has concluded and favour the 3950 - 4100 range for correction bottom. This remains the range I will like to take long exposure.Image

At the surface of the market the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $DJIA(.DJI)$ all rallied > 1% meanwhile breadth remains nothing short of horrible. Many more stocks made new lows today. Rallies like today are not the type to get me excited. My speculation remains that the 3950-4100 range will build out a correction base. The larger surprise from weekend thread is the volume of comments pointing towards 3950 not being “low enough”. The lower boundary of the range is an additional 5% — plenty of room for fear to lose participants.ImageImageImageFollow me to learn more about analysis !!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

My investment strategy will be to study the market and be a bit reluctant to venture into any investment that the returns will be negatively affected by the current market situation. If the Fed rate is hiked I presume that there will be an increase inflation which will positively increase investment earnings at a comparable pace . However high inflation can negatively impact nominal returns. 

The Fed rate hike will make it more expensive for  consumers and businesses to borrow money and this will results in the fall of demand of goods and services, making producers to reduce the prices of goods and services. This will make the market humming, not too hot, not too cold but just right.

Nice the good project investasi 

Yes market will stop declined. 

Stop it's gotta stop ? What are your thoughts 

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ As a buy and hold investor (or seldom sell, as you say), I never take things in that manner. And I too invest in individual companies. And I too don't mind the opportunity to add.I'm still this much bullish, I think we will finish the year higher than today. That's not much to invest on. And we may go lower in the next week or two. I hope that, as the market has done all year, it's a modest drop, and then the mere recovery from the lows can fulfil peoples' previous forecasts of a rally!

The increased market volatility that started two weeks ago is likely to intensify, with a large amount of data being released this week.On Wednesday, various data releases will begin: the ADP employment report, JOLTS, and ISM, followed by the Treasury bond auction at 1 pm Eastern Time, and then the FOMC interest rate decision.Since a no rate hike in November FOMC is already the consensus expectation in the market, the focus will be on Powell's press conference.Fed Tools at CMEDuring a special interview two weeks ago, Powell told investors not to think that the Fed's job is done even if there is no rate hike. It is expected that Powell will continue to convey this message in the statement and press conference.So far, economic data continues to support the Fed taking more or longer tightenin

On August 7th, I posted the following chart…SPX_VIXAnd made the following comment…“Over the last 5 years, we’ve had 4 instances where the VIX $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ has declined to very low levels thus creating the wedge patterns you see in the lower panel of the chart (remember, the lower panel is inverted so “very low levels” on the VIX correspond to elevated levels on the VIX in the chart).When those wedge patterns broke, it was typically not very good for the S&P 500.We need to watch the VIX, and especially the 15-day moving average, in the coming days and weeks.”Fast forward, and here is the updated chart.SPX_VIX2Note that the VIX did break out of its wedge pattern (highlighted with the yellow circle) and as expected, the S&

Big-Tech’s PerformanceBig-tech’s earning week doesn’t seem nice to investors, though their earnings mostly beats, inline with strong Q3 US GDP.The positive news has been overshadowed by uncertainty, particularly with concerns that the economy may worsen in the first half of next year due to a high-interest-rate environment, led by high-yield US bonds. As of close of trading on October 26th, big-techs plunged a lot during past five trading days. The smallest decline was seen in $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , which had a gain after its financial report, with a drop of 1.04%, followed by $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ which did not release its financial report, with a decline of 4.22%, and $

$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ released its financial report after the market closed. In addition to exceeding expectations in terms of current user numbers, revenue, and profit levels, the company expressed great confidence in doubling its full-year profit margin and mentioned multiple times the help of AI in the company's performance. A few days prior, $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ lso announced strong Q3 performance.PINS Q3 EarningsRevenue unexpectedly achieved double-digit growth of 11%, reaching $763 million, exceeding market expectations of $744 million.Adjusted EBITDA was $185 million, higher than the market's expected $135.1 million; net profit went from a loss of $65.2 million in the same period last year to a profi

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ continued its strong recovery in the Q3 earnings report, with its primarily advertising-based business. In addition, its extreme cost-cutting measures have resulted in operating profit margins reaching their highest level in 2021.The stock price initially surged by 5%after hours as a sign of respect, but then gave back all the gains and dropped an additional 3 points due to flat Q4 guidance and concerns about macroeconomic conditions, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is likely to serve as a guide for the overall market trend in the next one or two quarters: low sensitivity to positive news and easily controlled by risk sentiment.SummaryAd revenue was stronger than expected, but investors were not sensit

The biggest highlight of $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Q3 earnings report released after the market on October 27th was the release of profits that exceeded expectations. As its consumer business showed higher-than-expected growth in an inflationary environment last quarter, the market naturally had high expectations for this part. Although the post-market shock had an element of expected management, it also reflected the market's divergence in response to the sell-off of major technology company earnings reports over the past few days.SummaryRetail sector's profits continued to rebound, supporting the release of large profits this quarter. The North American retail operating profit margin rose from 2.9% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3, and international revenue growth

Summary By themselves, Treasury yields spiking out of control can cause a recession, and October delivered both a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 8% fixed-rate mortgages. We have gotten into a situation where the avalanche of Treasury issuance (due to a last minute debt ceiling deal) is overwhelming investors. The U.S. Treasury had to issue more debt because they could not issue any debt before the debt ceiling deal. Ralf Hahn By themselves, Treasury yields spiking out of control can cause a recession, and October delivered both a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 8% fixed-rate mortgages. We have gotten into a situation where the avalanche of Treasury issuance (due to a last minute debt ceiling deal) is overwhelming investors. The U.S. Treasury had to issue more debt bec

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day November policy meeting on Wednesday, with broad expectations that the central bank will hold interest rates unchanged this time but potentially signal additional hikes ahead as it fights stubborn inflation. The Fed’s policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will offer critical clues on the future path of rates. Markets widely anticipate the Fed maintaining its current target fed funds rate range of 5.25% to 5.50%, following four straight 0.75 percentage point increases. However, the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability means further tightening can’t yet be ruled out with inflation still running hot. The policy decision will be announced at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. While rat

U.S. stocks moved higher Wednesday morning as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, set for release this afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 181 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%. Information technology stocks led the market higher, with semiconductor names like Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology surging on upbeat guidance. The rally came despite mixed economic data showing a contraction in manufacturing activity but a slight uptick in job openings in September. All eyes are on the Fed’s 2 p.m. policy statement, which is expected to maintain rates steady following four consecutive 0.75 percentage point hikes. Traders anticipate the Fed will signal plans to slow its a

[Miser]Hello Tigers,The once-anticipated "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" market for U.S. stocks did not materialize as expected this year. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ set a record for its longest monthly losing streak since March 2020.As of the close on October 31, the performances of popular stock markets in October are as follows: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $DJIA(.DJI)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ , $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ Among them, the performance of each sector of $S&P 50

Investing in the stock market can be a rollercoaster ride, with highs and lows that often test the nerves of even the most seasoned investors. The recent sell-off in the market, triggered by a combination of factors including disappointing earnings from key players like Alphabet and rising US Treasury yields, has once again prompted discussions about the best strategies for navigating volatile times. While market fluctuations can induce fear and uncertainty, it is crucial for long-term investors to maintain a steady hand and consider using the recent dip as an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks at a discount.$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  The sell-off witnessed across various indices, including the S&P 5

Market Recap | Tech Stocks Tumble, Pushing Nasdaq Lower A steep drop in shares of $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  and other technology companies dragged the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ into correction territory Wednesday. The tech-heavy index slid 2.4% in a punishing session that pulled it down more than 10% from its recent high. Its losses accelerated in the afternoon, sending the gauge to one of its worst one-day declines of the year. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 1.4%, closing at its lowest le

In the past two years, the rapid increase in benchmark interest rates has risen by 525 basis points, the fastest level since the 1980s. The more important question for investors to consider is whether the degree of Federal Reserve tightening is sufficient. By pushing up financing costs through policy interest rates, we can determine the degree of crowding out of incremental financing demand and erosion of stock interest costs. The purpose of monetary tightening is to suppress demand, mainly by raising policy interest rates to guide the overall financing costs of society to rise, thereby affecting new demand and stock costs: 1) financing costs are higher than investment returns, suppressing incremental financing demand; 2) stock interest pressure increases, squeezing out other consumption a

Stock futures extended losses Wednesday evening after a brutal day of selling that saw the Nasdaq Composite notch its worst single-day drop since February. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures contracts declined 0.7% in after-hours trading. S&P 500 futures also retreated 0.3%, while Dow futures hovered just below the flatline. The moves follow a volatile regular trading session driven largely by a nearly 10% plunge in shares of Google-parent Alphabet. Alphabet posted disappointing third quarter earnings after the closing bell Tuesday, with revenue from its Google Cloud unit falling short of analyst estimates. The disappointing results from the tech titan exacerbated a market-wide selloff that saw the S&P 500 tumble 1.4% to close below the key 4,200 level for the first time since May.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$  If you're looking for just one stock to own, it's tough to beat SPY stock, or the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY). Just one trade instantly exposes you to the entire market and S&P 500 at a very low cost. But should you buy it with the market rallying this year? Want to own Microsoft stock (MSFT)? And Apple stock (AAPL)? Also Alphabet (GOOGL)? All the top tech stocks are in there. And what about top consumer brands like Disney (DIS), Walmart (WMT) and now Tesla (TSLA)? Yes, those are in the SPY, too. In fact, if you buy SPY stock you instantly own all the hottest stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500. Just like that. No matter who wins, you win. What is this one stock that owns all? What Is SPY Stock? SPY is an excha

Apple (AAPL) has introduced three new chips: M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max, all of which share the same CPU and GPU architecture as the A17 Pro chip found in the iPhone 15 Pro. These chips are manufactured using $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ new 3-nanometer process. Apple claims that the performance cores in any M3 processor can be up to 30% faster than those in the M1, while the efficiency cores can be up to 50% faster. The performance comparisons made by Apple are mostly against the M1, which is useful for M2 Mac users as they are unlikely to upgrade to the M3. Compared to the M2, the regular M3 does not have any additional cores and has a maximum memory capacity of 24GB, just like the M2. However, it has 5 billion more transistors and offer

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ breadth is the most washed out it's been since the October lows. Monday was a nice bounce day on the index after three brutal sell-off days, but $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is still below its 200D moving average.From a monthly range, Aug, Sept, and Oct months have closed in red. Maybe very low chances that November will close in red?A few things to consider before we go and get bullish again:Could now be the reversal as we enter into November or was today a dead-cat bounce? Will upwards seasonality start to do its thing or continue to get crushed post-FOMC? Are funds done selling off for tax and rebalancing reasons?What’s your opinion? Do you have confidence in November? Welcome to Share the g

Oversold market and seasonal tailwinds The markets are deeply and way oversold. No other ways of saying that. Can it go lower? Yes it could. But the probabilities of it rallying upwards in the near term are higher than not based on technicals and sentiment.  Sentiments are pretty bearish at the moment and the contrarian trade is up. Technically, both the broad market index and the Nasdaq are pretty much extended in their fifth wave of the fifth wave of what looks like an ending diagonal. And ending diagonals tend to have sharp snapbacks. Indicators also look at stretched oversold levels and pretty ready for a rebound. Inagine a loaded spring. That is what the markets are looking like to me. The Nasdaq has also made a divergence and a higher low compared to the SPX on the micro charts.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ The interplay between the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates and the stock market is a critical dynamic that investors closely monitor. When the Fed chooses to increase or decrease interest rates, it has a significant impact on the stock market. Higher interest rates typically lead to increased borrowing costs for businesses, which can slow down economic activity and potentially dampen corporate earnings. On the other hand, lower interest rates can stimulate borrowing and investment, fueling economic growth and potentially benefiting stock prices. Amidst the current economi

It's no secret that the market has been a rollercoaster lately, leaving many investors wondering if now is the time to buy the dip or close their positions to avoid further declines. First, let's address the question on everyone's mind: should you buy the dip or cut your losses and run? Well, the answer isn't as straightforward as we'd like it to be. Market fluctuations are a part of investing, and it's important to remember that they can work in your favor if you have a well-thought-out strategy. Personally, I believe that a volatile market can present great buying opportunities for those with a long-term perspective. However, it's essential to do your due diligence. Take a close look at the stocks in your portfolio and evaluate if they are fundamentally strong. If you have high-quality s