This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter

Next week marks the start of December, and in overseas markets December is usually a fairly quiet month. When there has already been sufficient volatility in the first eleven months, as long as there is no sudden news in December, institutional traders and fund managers generally trade cautiously in order to avoid overtrading and hurting their year-end performance. This year, volatility has already been large due to global trade and tariff headlines, and with the market also expecting a Fed rate cut in December, price swings in December may be smaller than in November. U.S. equity indices might even enter the Christmas season early, meaning light trading and a lukewarm, directionless market.​Over the weekend, an unverified rumor suddenly spread that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would announce h

Two weeks ago, we discussed that WTI crude oil was trading within a range-bound market, making it suitable for selling weekly WTI put options below the prior low of $55 or holding a short WTI futures position combined with selling weekly put options to construct a covered put strategy for this environment. Investors without access to futures or options can consider energy or crude oil ETFs as an alternative.Bearish Crude Reports Trigger a Sharp Selloff: How to Use Options to Trade a Choppy Market？Since then, WTI crude oil has continued to oscillate and weaken, but it has not yet broken below the $55 level, confirming the effectiveness of the previous strategy. Recently, the price volatility has increased, and WTI crude

Last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll data attracted widespread attention due to severe market disagreements and the need for official data to guide trading decisions.As the first official data released after the U.S. government shutdown ended, although it was delayed by two months, it still provided a baseline for the market's subsequent trend. Before the release, the market had largely withdrawn expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the probability dropping below 50%, which was a main reason for the stock index decline last week. After the data release, Federal Reserve officials voiced mixed views, with both dovish and hawkish statements highlighting significant divergence ahead of the December Fed meeting. Dovish comments raised the odds of a rate cut and boosted sto

Trend Insights:It is still too early to turn fully bullish on U.S. equities; the main strategic focus should be on trading a potential second bottom rather than rushing to deploy all capital. The current market is shifting from a one-way rally driven by expectations of monetary easing toward a choppier regime in which investors are repricing the timing of rate cuts, the AI bubble, and credit spreads. Over the medium term, U.S. stocks still have a good chance of delivering a “Santa rally,” but near-term risks have not been cleared, and the necessary conditions for a durable reversal are only gradually falling into place, so the time for an all-out long stance has not yet arrived.December rate cut not locked inAt the moment, the probability of a December rate cut implied by Fed funds futures

Recently, gold has been moving in tandem with the broader U.S. equity market, showing roller-coaster style swings that are hard to grasp in terms of timing and direction.This analysis will briefly review the rhythm and patterns of gold price fluctuations from technical and fundamental perspectives, and then discuss how retail traders can use trading tools to capture these profit opportunities.​Based on a combination of current price structure and capital-flow signals, gold is still likely to probe lower repeatedly in the short term, and this round of correction has not yet fully run its course. However, from a longer-term cyclical perspective, the current gold bull market is far from over, and the potential upside remains significant.​4000-dollar level: short-term support may not hold at o

The most important event this week is the release of the first nonfarm payrolls report following the shutdown of the U.S. government. This September nonfarm payrolls report was originally scheduled for release in early October, but due to the U.S. government shutdown it has been postponed to 21:30 Beijing time on November 20. At this stage, the market is unable to fully anticipate this report; after all, with a report coming after a 40‑day shutdown, nobody knows the path of the data from here or how much impact it will have on the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cutting process. According to probability data from CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a rate cut versus no cut in December have already narrowed to roughly fifty‑fifty, and the public statements by Federal Reserve officials are also highly d

The rebound in the crypto market the weekend before last ultimately proved to be nothing more than a flash in the pan. As both Bitcoin and Ethereum have gone on to set new recent lows, the overall rhythm of the market has started to clearly signal the arrival of a new bear market in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, last week’s sharp pullback in silver after making a midweek high continued the sequential logic of the “three-horse carriage”: after the bull trap in precious metals, U.S. equities have become the only fortress that has not yet been breached by the bears. With a large batch of economic data due this week, plus important individual earnings reports, will this be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back?​Among the three drivers of crypto, precious metals, and U.S. equities, the cl

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Last week, after publishing a medium- to long‑term bullish view on U.S. equities in the piece titled “Government Reopening: Why It Could Ignite the Next Leg of the U.S. Stock Rally” equity indices did not immediately reverse higher, but instead remained stuck in a weak, choppy range near the lows. This time, the focus is on why U.S. equity indices are currently trapped in this kind of weak consolidation, and how retail investors should respond and hedge risk.​The global market is now in a dangerous transition characterized by a “macro data blackout + liquidity repricing,” during which index directionality is weak, but volatility pricing is prone to s

Ahead of OPEC’s monthly market analysis and the IEA’s annual energy outlook this week, WTI steadied after three straight up days, signaling a shift from chasing strength to waiting on new data. Traders are focused on Wednesday night’s OPEC release and the forthcoming IEA outlook.​ $WTI原油主连 2512(CLmain)$ Curve signalsThe WTI term structure has seen the spread between far-month and near-month contracts narrow markedly, a classic sign that inventories are moving from tight toward looser in the physical market. Since the October 20 bottom in WTI, far-month vs near-month spread have kept compressing, implying faltering buy interest in near-month and a supply backdrop shifting from tight to more ample. Throughout the year, worries about a “large sur

Last night, the S&P 500 staged a sharp rebound and completed a daily bottom fractal from a technical perspective, while S&P futures extended modest gains today, nearly piercing the prior fractal’s high; technically, they are just shy of confirming a daily‑level bottoming rebound pattern. Even though the continuing resolution still needs a House vote, markets have been strongly buoyed by the prospect that the government will “reopen.” In this view, the U.S. equity pullback likely found a bottom and may now transition into a new Santa‑rally leg.​The core logic can be summarized as a transmission chain of “liquidity return → rate stabilization → risk‑appetite repair.” During the shutdown, the Treasury absorbed substantial market cash and squeezed system reserves; once the government r

Cryptocurrencies show signs of a rebound, and a rally is likely this week. Although last week’s widely watched U.S. government shutdown issue remained unresolved, the prevailing view is that the two parties will reach a compromise this week as time goes on. With newsflow relatively muted over the weekend, the crypto market’s unusual rebound seems to be front‑running that possibility. As a key leading indicator, once it stabilizes, overall market risk appetite is expected to improve to some extent in the near term.​Ether briefly tested lows near 3,000 dollars last week, but short‑term technical demand absorption still looks fairly solid. After reclaiming 3,355, the need for continued correction and consolidation remains evident. Notably, on the weekly timeframe, prior episodes featuring lon

Following the conclusion of the China-US summit in Busan, South Korea, the trade war between the two countries has effectively been put on pause, providing a "reassuring measure" for the global economy. The 24% retaliatory tariffs have been suspended for one year. This one-year suspension is significant because it coincides with the upcoming US midterm elections, and there remains considerable uncertainty whether the Republican Party, led by Trump, will maintain control over both chambers of Congress, which will directly impact the trajectory of US trade negotiations. From the current perspective, at least for one year the market's worries about China-US trade frictions can greatly ease. With the exception of precious metals, this is generally positive news for other asset classes.The succ

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1.Wishing everyone a pleasant weekend! $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold has entered a consolidation phase! As expected, it maintained a wide range yesterday between 4047 and 3972.4. This market environment is actually more suitable for short-term trading! Looking ahead to next week: Entering November, we anticipate continued cyclical volatility at the beginning of the month. D1 Chart Analysis: Significant retracement from highs is evident. Gold retreated from its $4381.29 peak, breaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($3972.61) but holding above the 0.500 retracement level ($3845.97). MACD forms a