To The Moon

"No bad news is bad news" is very useful for dollars. After the banking problems were forgotten in March, the market fell into singing and dancing again. The pure safe-haven the US Dollar Index began to slide to the low level in February, and it is difficult to find signs of rebound in the short term. It is expected that the market will further bottom out for more effective support.

The long-term time period of the US dollar is very unfavorable, and both the weekly and monthly lines are currently near the fifth signal. This means that in the short term, the bulls will not have the opportunity to fight back until the end of this month, and in the longer term, it may take the monthly line to rebound in June and July.

At these two levels, the re-emergence of moving average suppression also implies that bears control the situation. Assuming that the correction continues, the theoretical goal will point to around 97.

The euro, the main rival of the US dollar, is just the opposite. After returning to the main support above 1.05 in the big cycle, although the progress is slow, the euro obviously still has the opportunity to continue to rise.The interval 1.12-1.13 is the next suppression area worthy of attention. After the US rate hike is basically completed, the European Central Bank will obviously provide more good news to the euro in terms of interest rate spread according to its previous track. Unless there is another bad news that the current market did not expect, the overall pattern of the foreign exchange market is not expected to change.

Since it is difficult to change the situation that the US dollar is weak in the short term, gold, which is still in the process of rising, has naturally not ended its rise. According to the calculation and historical model,Although the possibility of gold effectively breaking through the record high is limited, there is still a chance to test the high point. From the low point around 1800, bulls may test the area between 2060 and 70, and may not even rule out trying to break the historical high point.

However, it should be noted that after that, what awaits bulls will not be a continuous short run or a stronger rally, but a reverse downward adjustment brought about by the end of a spent force.

Although the long-term trend will not be shaken, chasing up gold at a relatively high level obviously faces no small risk. Steady investors may wish to seek short opportunities with high profit-loss ratio near historical highs. After waiting for the price to be deeply adjusted back, we will re-build medium and long-term positions around 1800.

In this process, we can continue to pay attention to the performance of silver price. As long as silver can't make up for the increase obviously (for example, break through the key 30 mark), it will be difficult to change the situation that gold is strong and silver is weak.

However, under the pattern of silver seriously dragging its feet, it is not easy for precious metals to continue the bull market. On the other hand, in the current position pattern, speculative funds (fund managers) with reverse index value have established more net bulls in gold. Historically, this behavior means that the market may lack new follow-up buying, which usually appears near the stage head.

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