At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, March 14th, the US Department of Labor released the PPI data for February, which exceeded expectations in terms of year-on-year, month-on-month and core PPI year-on-year data. Relaying the previous CPI data, it further continued to imply the stubbornness of inflation.Data show that the PPI of the United States warmed up beyond expectations in February, rising by 1.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was 1.2%.Far exceeding the expected 0.9%; PPI accelerated by 0.6% month-on-month,It is twice the expected value，The previous value is 0.3%.PictureThe core PPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 2% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value.Exceeding expectations by 1.9%;The core PPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was less than th

According to CME "Federal Reserve Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 97.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.5%. By May, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 17.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 0.4%.PictureAs can be seen from the above figure, the current price of the futures market has expected that the Fed will stay put in March and May, and the time node when it is more likely to cut interest rates will be postponed until June this year,It is basically consistent with the expectations that the Fed wanted to guide before.On February 28th, at 21:30

US President Biden flew to the Middle East in a hurry, but still failed to prevent the tragedy from happening.On the 17th, local time, the "Ahli Arab Hospital" (also known as Baptist Hospital) in Gaza City, Gaza Strip was attacked by air, killing at least 500 Palestinians. Jordanian Foreign Minister Safadi announced in the early morning of 18th that he would cancel the quadripartite summit with the United States, Egypt and Palestine.At the meeting in Jeddah, Iran's foreign minister stressed the need to sanction Israel, impose an oil embargo and withdraw its ambassador.Affected by this, the risk aversion warmed up across the board. The price of spot gold once climbed to $1,962/oz, and WTI crude oil once surged to $88.57/barrel. At present, both of them have declined.Of course, due to the fe

At about 21:00 Beijing time, WTI crude oil price suddenly soared, with an increase of more than 1.35% within a few minutes, while Brent crude oil hit the $90/barrel mark for the first time since November last year. Affected by this, some domestic futures varieties continued to rise after opening at night, with the main contracts of feed oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rising by over 2% and SC crude oil rising by nearly 2%.PictureSaudis announced that it would extend the voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for three months.Russia announced that it will continue to voluntarily reduce the oil supply by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of December 2023.In addition, Saudi Arabia also indicated that it will review the voluntary production reduction decision every mo

Fitch Ratings, an international rating agency, downgraded the Long-Term Rating from "AAA" to "AA +", and its outlook changed from negative to stable. The reason is that the fiscal situation is expected to deteriorate in the next three years, and the government debt burden is high and increasing.PictureIn response, US Treasury Secretary Yellen immediately refuted it as "arbitrary and out of date".Former US Treasury Secretary Summers said: "There is no doubt about the solvency of the United States."The White House then issued a special statement saying, "At a time when President Biden achieved the strongest recovery of any major economy in the world,Downgrading the U.S. is Contrary to reality. "Indeed, if you just look at the small non-agricultural ADP data released tonight, you really have

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC),Hedge funds became net sellers of dollars last week for the first time since March, which means that the market has started voting with real money .This is why I want to remind you earlier that commodities should transition from rebound to reversal, and one of the main factors contributing to the rebound of Big A share is the break of the US Dollar Index.PictureThe US Dollar Index fell 2.24% last week, with the dollar losing the most against the Swedish kronor, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. The contribution of the euro, which has the highest weight, to the US Dollar Index's depreciation is basically close to its weight.In Europe, the reason for the higher euro/US dollar is the poor monetary policy expectations between the two cen

At 20:30 Beijing time, the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the year-on-year increase of CPI in June in the United States continued to fall from 4% in May to 3%, which was lower than expected by 3.1%.It declined for the 12th consecutive month and was the lowest since March 2021;CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, higher than the previous value of 0.1%, but lower than the expected 0.3%.PictureSimultaneously, the core CPI-excluding food and energy-which economists believe is a better measure of potential inflation-rose 4.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5.3%.It is the lowest since October 2021, but it is still far higher than the target of the Federal Reserve; The core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, which was also lo

before the interest rate meeting here, there were four combinations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June:First, rate hike 25 basis points + doves press conference;Second, rate hike 25 basis points + hawkish press conference;Third, stay put + doves press conference;Fourth, stay put + hawkish press conference.Obviously, if the Fed chooses 3, then precious metals will soar, and if it chooses 2, then precious metals will plummet. Both of them are actually small probabilities, and the final cash should be 1 and 4, while I firmly believes that it is 4,That is, before the interest rate meeting, bulls have an advantage, but the press conference is likely to be hawkish and market will dive.It's a pity that the volatility of gold price is limited in the end, and it didn't reach aro

Let me tell you a story first. Once, Pete and Tony traveled in Siberian forest and came across a bear. So Tony quickly took out his running shoes and put them on, ready to run away. Pete was puzzled. "Can you run past a bear?"Tony said as he ran. "I can only run past you."Let's look at a set of data in Europe todayEurozone manufacturing PMI for May was 44.6, falling short of the expected 46, compared with 45.8,It hit a 36-month low.PictureThe initial PMI of service industry in the euro zone in May was 55.9, which was higher than the expected value of 55.5 and lower than the previous value of 56.2.It is a new low in the past two months;The initial comprehensive PMI of the euro zone in May was 53.3, which was lower than the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 54.1.It is the lowest in the

At 20:30 on May 10th, Beijing time, the United States released inflation data for March.According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,In April, the CPI of the United States increased by 4.9% year-on-year, falling for the tenth consecutive time, the smallest year-on-year increase since April 2021, expected 5%, previous value 5%; CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, with an expected value of 0.4% and a previous value of 0.1%.PictureThe core CPI excluding energy and food slowed down slightly from last month, up 5.5% year-on-year, which was the same as expected and the previous value was 5.6%; It increased by 0.4% month-on-month, expected to be 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.4%.In addition, the Federal Reserve loves "super core inflation", and the CPI of core services except housing slowed

Overnight,Big hawk St. Louis Fed Chairman BradIn an interview with the media, he expressed his support for continuing rate hike to cope with persistent inflation. Inflation is falling, but not as fast as Wall Street expected, and he believes fears of a U.S. recession are overblown.The implication is that,Inflationary pressures in the United States are still high, and rate hike still need to continue, while worries about economic recession have been exaggerated.All kinds of signs are beginning to show that the market is rapidly reversing the expectation that the Federal Reserve will press the rate hike pause button in the second half of the year:First of all,Futures market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike rate hike of 25 basis points on May 3 has risen s

On April 12, the US Department of Labor released data showing that the monthly rate of CPI in March increased by 0.1%, which was lower than the expected growth of 0.2% and the previous value increased by 0.4%; The annual rate of growth was 5%, which was lower than the expected growth of 5.2%, and the previous value increased by 6.00%; The core CPI grew at an annual rate of 5.6%, which was in line with expectations, and the previous value increased by 5.5%.PictureAccording to the U.S. Department of Labor,The housing index remains the biggest contributor to the monthly growth of all projects. This completely offset the decline in the energy index.PictureThe energy index fell by 3.5% during the month, as all major energy component indexes declined.PictureI believes that,Inflation in March was

Overnight, the Conference Board released a consumer confidence index of 104.2 for March, which was higher than expected and higher than the previous value of 103.4. Meanwhile, the Richmond manufacturing index was better than expected in March.PictureI believes that,In the stormy March of Silicon Valley banks and signature banks, consumer confidence was still stronger than expected and previous values, which shows that some institutions really took pains.After the banking thunder crisis in the United States, the overall financial situation has relaxed. As shown in the following figure, the green line is the trend of the S&P 500 index and the black line is the Goldman Sachs American Financial Conditions Index, which show a mirror symmetrical trend.The continuous rebound of US stocks alwa

The current financial market has two main lines: First, inflation in the United States; Second, the risk aversion caused by the bankruptcy crisis of Silicon Valley banks.Overnight,US CPI and core CPI slowed down as scheduled in February.Housing cost is the biggest single factor driving the rise of CPI in the United States, accounting for 70%. In February, the year-on-year growth of rent CPI still reached a new high in 40 years, with an increase of 8.7% over last year. With official rent data often lagging behind, industry data show that rent growth has slowed significantly.This means that the peak of rent inflation is coming soon.​Tonight, the unexpectedly sharp drop in PPI data in February in the United States encouraged market sentiment. The core PPI excluding food, energy and trade incr

After the turmoil in the financial market on March 7, the day after the congressional hearing, Powell seemed to realize that he had sent a hawkish signal to the market.At present, no decision has been made on the March interest rate meeting.He believes that more data will be crucial when evaluating interest rate policy, and job vacancies, PPI and employment reports are all Fed observation data.​As shown in the above figure, US stocks did not show continuous decline, with Nasdaq and S&P closing slightly higher, while Dow Jones closing slightly lower. In Asia and Europe today, the US dollar index fell,Non-US currencies also rebounded with the trend, and gold and silver as a whole fluctuated at a low level.​According to the report released by ADP Research Institute of the United States, o

Overnight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that,Although raising interest rates to curb economic growth may trigger political shocks, the Fed is firmly committed to reducing inflation.Powell's prepared speech did not comment on the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision, but emphasized the importance of central bank independence and the steps needed to maintain autonomy in policy making.I thinks Powell's speech is not much new, but from the recent comments of many Fed officials, such as Brad, Bostic, Daley and others, they are all guiding the market expectation, that is, this round of Fed interest rate hike cycle needs to increase the interest rate level to 5.00%-5.25%.However, Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, pointed out that regarding the interest rate trend,In