Tonight, I reviewed the fundamental backdrop through four lenses: Fed tightening and risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb; the World Gold Council report ahead of a packed central-bank week; China’s financial-sector agenda alongside inflation data; and the AI leaders amid US-China tariff tensions. I then mapped the next positioning framework around persistent rate pressure, rising debt burdens, Middle East risks, gold ETF flows, central-bank policy, and shifts across gold, silver and oil. The outlook also reflects energy costs, compute demand, softer AI momentum, distillation allegations, tariff risks and the yuan, which together will shape medium- to long-term capital flows and asset allocation. $标普500ETF(SPY)$

Overnight, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as anticipated, while announcing significant policy adjustments. According to the FOMC statement, beginning April 1st, the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction pace, decreasing Treasury securities reduction limits from $25 billion/month to $5 billion/month, while maintaining the MBS reduction cap at $35 billion/month. The committee noted increased economic uncertainty but still forecasts two interest rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points altogether.Benchmark Rate Unchanged, Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed, Two Rate Cuts - All Within ExpectationsFed Chairman Powell broke new ground in the press conference by addressing tariffs for the first time, acknowledging that Trump's policies are impacting the economy. He emphasized

Germany Announces Historic Fiscal Stimulus PlanGermany dropped a bombshell today as the incoming German government announced an unprecedented fiscal stimulus plan. This includes establishing a €500 billion special infrastructure fund, providing "unlimited" support for defense spending, and permitting local governments to increase borrowing. Altogether, the total scale of this plan could exceed €1 trillion.The magnitude of Germany's fiscal stimulus plan is on par with the historic impact of the reunification of East and West Germany over 35 years ago. In the short term, this initiative aims to "provide a safety net" to prevent further economic deterioration. From a mid-term perspective, the plan is expected to bring a "paradigm shift" to Germany's economic growth model. With increased defen

After Christmas, the the US Dollar Index continued to fluctuate near the high of 108.25. The previous high point appeared at the high of 108.54 on December 20. It was also the high point pushed up by the strong market buying after the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cut last week.Morgan Stanley pointed out in a latest report that the U.S. fiscal deficit is expected to decrease next year, while the German fiscal deficit will increase, which may lead to the convergence of interest rates between the United States and Europe.This triggered a sharp depreciation of the US dollar.PicturesBescent, the nominated next U.S. Treasury Secretary, has previously said that the goal of reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP will be a priority. Morgan Stanley said in the report that this commitment is ge

The decline in gold prices overnight was indeed a bit sharp:PicturesYesterday, the big K line of gold fell by 3.36%, equivalent to 91.15 US dollars, and the amplitude ranged from the highest 2721 to 2615. Both the amplitude and the decline have exceeded 1106, which is the big K line after the results of the US presidential election in November. There It fell 3.10% to 85.05 US dollars.The short-term decline of gold is mainly related to the following reasons:First, it is related to the cooling of geopolitical tensions.Last week, Russia and Ukraine launched missiles at each other, which triggered a rise in risk aversion. However, the situation in the region did not escalate further over the weekend. In addition, the market has reported this week that Israel may reach a ceasefire agreement wit

Gold prices have reached record highs recently, and some market participants believe that,A tactical pullback may be on the horizon and see it as an opportunity to add positions.However, UBS released a report saying that although the overall bullish outlook for gold is solid, the market may need to catch its breath.UBS analyst JoniTeves pointed out in the report that the consolidation period at this time is beneficial to the market, especially if it allows some weak bulls to exit the market and allows long-term investors to enter the market at a better level.Generally speaking, September is a relatively low season for gold prices.Because during this month, the dollar tends to perform strongly, yields rise, and the stock market performs weakly.However, this year's situation is different. Th

A growing number of Wall Street economists are warning that,The Federal Reserve has waited too long to reverse course after raising interest rates to their highest point in two decades.At present, the market generally expects that the FOMC will keep the benchmark interest rate stable for the eighth consecutive time at its July meeting, which marks one year since the FOMC has maintained the current interest rate target range of 5.25% to 5.5%.However, for September, the market has unanimously expected that this is the most likely time node for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.I once mentioned that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance actually means that the Federal Reserve has given up its 2% inflation target, and interest rate cuts are already the next event with a high

With the publication of comments from two important Fed directors overnight, the market speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 is more intense.First,Governor Waller, one of the Fed's toughest officials, said that the policy is in place to return the inflation rate to the Fed's target of 2%, indicating that policy makers may not need to rate hike again.Second,Bowman, another Fed governor, said she is still willing to support rate hike if inflation stagnates, but did not express her support for next month's rate hike.It should be said that the speeches of the above-mentioned two directors with permanent voting rights are dovish and hawkish, and the market directly interprets them as all dovish,That is to say, the Federal Reserve has recognized the cowardice and can't bear i

According to the forecast of 23 large investment banks, the increase of non-farm payrolls in the United States is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.6% and 3.9%, and the average hourly wage is expected to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%-4.4%.The final data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 336,000 in September, the largest increase since the beginning of this year.Far exceeding the expected 170,000, the value was 187,000 in early August.What is even more exaggerated is that the employment data of the previous two months has also been greatly revised upwards: the number of new people in August was revised up by 40,000 to 227,000; The number of new people in July was greatly revised from