Weekly Macro Strategy Overview Welcome to this week’s macro strategy report. Each edition brings together market views from community contributors with relevant professional credentials. We also track how their strategies play out each week. Here are this week’s key takeaways: 1. The Rebound Arrives as Weekly Downside Risk Builds The rebound offers little assurance that risks have cleared. The recovery from the lower edge of the previous trading range broadly matched expectations. The next phase is more likely to bring repeated swings within a broad range. A sustained uptrend may take longer to resume. Over the next two weeks, both a crash and a quick breakout to new highs appear unlikely. After consolidation, base-building and a downside break look roughly equally likely. Remain

Markets saw extreme volatility last week. Rumors of AI policy changes sent U.S. stocks plunging the day after Democrats swept the midterms. This dragged most assets lower in tandem. We took profits on our Nasdaq shorts and shorted the euro near its highs. The priority now is understanding what will drive the next phase of trading. $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2612(MNQmain)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ 

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Divided Government Could Restrict Policy Progress and Reduce Uncertainty Following the Republicans’ loss of their majorities in both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections, Trump will face greater constraints and more negotiation over policy during the following two years. This may reduce policy efficiency, although it could also limit the market impact of unexpected measures and create a more stable environment. 2. AI Investment Is Driving a Valuation Reset, With Limited Evidence

Our Nasdaq short position was filled near last week’s rebound high, shortly before the market fell sharply and formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the monthly chart. At this sensitive point in the fourth quarter, is the decline the beginning of a trend reversal or merely another interruption in the slow US equity bull market? $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ $納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ $納斯達克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指數主連 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指數主連 2612(MNQmain)$ The bottom line is that the market may reboun

Last night, I hosted a futures livestream on Tiger Brokers covering changing trends in semiconductor stocks and US equity indexes, along with trading ideas for gold and silver. If you missed the live session, you can watch the course replay here >> 半導體股已見底還是跌勢剛開始？股指新一輪大行情正在醞釀 Next, I will categorize and summarize the course’s most important information and trading insights. This should help investors who did not have time to attend the class quickly understand my current market views. First, a brief personal introduction: My Professional Background Gu Mingzhe is a guest strategy instructor for CME, an instructor for the Singa

Options on futures are option contracts whose underlying assets are futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across different expiries and strike prices. They provide useful signals on market expectations, risk appetite and potential support or resistance zones, although they should not be interpreted as direct bullish or bearish signals. Today’s analysis covers changes in large options trades and open interest on October 28 relative to October 27. These are the latest available data in this report and provide a reference for assessing positioning and risk appetite. The latest futures options data show continued divergence across markets. The S&P 500 saw a wider put-side advantage, with multiple near-term strikes adding positions and the 6,20

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: Markets Turn Defensive as Volatility May Persist Through Next Year’s First Quarter  Under the US dollar cycle model, market volatility could continue through the first quarter of next year. Safe haven, arbitrage and options strategies should therefore take priority. If US equities break below key trendlines, investors should focus on risk control. Gold is unlikely to regain bullish momentum before reclaiming its 20 day moving average. A confirmed break below $4,000 could open

Last night, I hosted a livestream on Tiger Futures to discuss shifts in the broader U.S. stock market. I covered the U.S. Dollar Index, including its historical patterns and outlook, and shared trading strategies for currencies, crude oil, and gold. If you missed the session, watch the replay here >> 美股指新一輪的上升浪終於開始了？標普的反彈目標位會達到多少？ Below, I have summarized the key market insights and trading views by topic, so those who missed the session can quickly understand my current outlook. First, a brief introduction: Cheng Jun is a professional trader and guest lecturer at CME Group. He previously served as General Manager of Gold Hea

English version： Options on futures are derivatives linked to futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal positioning across expiries and strikes, offering insight into market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance zones. However, they should not be treated as simple bullish or bearish signals. Today, we analyze changes in large options-on-futures trades and open interest on October 20 versus October 19. This is the latest available dataset and provides insight into positioning and risk appetite. The latest data show mixed positioning. S&P 500 front-month puts recorded the largest increase in open interest. Nasdaq puts remained dominant, while some longer-dated calls were reduced, indicating a defensive stance across equity indices. In crude oi

What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch?  The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately.   The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital.   For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how these views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Nvidia Straddle Closed for Profit; Lock In Option Gains Promptly: The previously discussed Nvidia straddle has been closed at a profit. Investors still holding the position should consider taking profits promptly. Profitable calls bought at lower levels should also be monetized into the rebound before lower implied volatility, time decay and weaker buying erode returns. 2. US Equity Selloff May Be Near Its End, Creating Conditions for a Rebound: Leveraged ETFs recorded a sharp

The latest US inflation data had raised concerns that the Federal Reserve could deliver three rate hikes this year. However, recent CME FedWatch data indicate little risk of an additional hike in October. Combined with the continued decline in Treasury yields, this suggests that risk on trading may dominate in the near term. As the fourth quarter approaches, however, any rally in risk assets could prove to be the “last dance.” Even a sharp advance should not be mistaken for a durable trend. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

CFTC Data: What It Is, Why It Matters and What to Watch The CFTC publishes its Commitments of Traders report each week. Known as the COT report, it is a key gauge of positioning across global futures markets. Its main value lies in showing which investor groups are driving price action. Market moves ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital. CFTC data makes these forces visible by breaking positions down by trader category. The CFTC divides market positions into three main categories: Non-commercial: Speculative traders, mainly hedge funds and CTAs, that seek to profit from price moves. They are the most responsive and directional market participants. Commercial: Companies that use futures to hedge business risks. Their positions primarily reflect risk

The market’s greatest challenge this week is that several seemingly independent trading themes are beginning to interact with one another: the yen has reached a six-month high; expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike are building; global bond yields are broadly rising; signs are emerging of a rebound in China’s crude-oil demand; and expectations for Federal Reserve policy have once again been unsettled by comments from Donald Trump. When these variables move simultaneously, markets rarely deliver a clean, smooth one-way trend. Instead, they are more likely to enter a high-volatility, range-bound phase marked by repeated swings in both directions. The key variable to watch now is whether the yen can make a further near-term directional break. This matters not only for the U.S. dollar inde