Cooling Tensions in the Middle East and Shift in Market Focus
As previously anticipated, with the 30/60-day overseas military operation cycle reaching its end without further escalation, the situation in the Middle East has naturally entered a phase of “unstable peace.” This implies that the primary market narrative will extend for another 1–2 quarters, and most asset classes will fall into broad range-bound fluctuations. At this stage, after a sustained rebound, crypto assets may present opportunities to sell at higher levels.
Crypto assets, which had dominated market attention in recent years, reached their peak and began to decline after Trump’s second term in the White House. A major contributing factor was the “algorithmic” liquidation event in October last year. Following this event, most cryptocurrencies entered a steady downtrend, including major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while negative news continued to emerge within the industry. It is clear that the medium- to long-term trend had already shifted at that point, with narrative-driven momentum giving way to a more balanced bull-bear dynamic. Therefore, the broader strategy should focus on selling at higher levels.
Bitcoin Structure and Upside Targets
Looking at Bitcoin’s recent price action, the weekly chart has posted six consecutive bullish candles (although two are doji), so further upside would not be surprising. After prolonged consolidation around the 60,000 level, a small rounded bottom has formed. Following the breakout above 76,000, a double-bottom pattern has also been confirmed. With a successful retest, the current theoretical target lies in the 88,000–92,000 range.
Timing Window and Short Strategy Logic
From a timing perspective, Bitcoin is currently in the sixth count of the TD Sequential this week, suggesting that within the next three weeks the market is likely to see at least a corrective pullback, with the possibility of resuming a downward trend after the rebound ends. Considering the remaining upside targets, time factors, and Fibonacci retracement levels, identifying short opportunities at favorable risk-reward levels will be one of the primary trading strategies this month.
If short positions are executed, a corrective pullback is the conservative expectation; however, whether this quickly confirms a trend reversal to the downside will require real-time assessment. From a broader fundamental perspective, new variables may not emerge until around the U.S. midterm elections. During this extended interim period, repeated back-and-forth price action and position rotation between bulls and bears are reasonable expectations.
Ethereum Catch-Up Potential and Relative Strength
Additionally, Ethereum has lagged during the recent rebound. Despite having a broadly similar technical structure, it has yet to achieve a confirmed breakout. This suggests that if there is further upside in the market, Ethereum may have catch-up potential, which is also reflected in the ETHBTC chart. Conversely, if the rebound ends, Ethereum—being relatively weaker—may exhibit poorer downside resilience.
Multi-Market Trading Strategy Summary
In terms of executed trades this week, we continue to hold long GBP positions with an average entry of 1.3250. As price and time progress, we have raised the stop-loss to 1.3510, while maintaining targets at 1.3700 and 1.4270.
Gold orders missed execution last week by approximately $10, so we are temporarily canceling pending orders this week due to reduced execution probability. In the next phase, we will choose between selling at higher levels or buying on dips after a new round of correction, depending on price developments. In the short to medium term, we approach gold with a range-trading strategy.
For crypto assets, we maintain the Bitcoin pending order: limit sell at 89,700, stop-loss at 98,300, and target at 81,000.
In addition, forex traders may consider opportunities in the Japanese yen. Under the offsetting forces of market dynamics and central bank intervention, range-bound movement is expected in the short term. The primary price range is 0.0(0)63–0.0(0)66 (the current yearly range). The main strategy is to sell the yen at higher levels, while short-term long positions depend on intervention risk. However, given the existing GBP position, no additional orders are placed for now; this serves only as a directional reference.
$WTI Crude Oil - main 2606(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2606(QMmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2606(MCLmain)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2605(BTCmain)$ $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2606(MGCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2606(1OZmain)$ $E-mini Gold - main 2606(QOmain)$ $USD Gold Futures - main 2605(GDUmain)$ $Silver - main 2607(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2607(QImain)$ $Micro Silver Futures - main 2607(SILmain)$ $100-Ounce Silver - main 2607(SICmain)$
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