In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.”
As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of key assets was as follows:
Against a backdrop of repeatedly shifting macro expectations, simply tracking price fluctuations is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset performance. By contrast, changes in inventories better reflect physical supply and demand, while capital flows better reveal allocation preferences. It is therefore useful to examine the latest developments in US equities, US Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, gold, and silver through the two lenses of inventories and capital flows.
1. Equity fund outflows narrowed, while bond funds continued to attract capital at a slower pace
According to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI):
Equity funds continued to post net outflows, but marginal pressure eased somewhat: For the week ended May 13, 2026, US equity funds saw estimated net outflows of USD 29.17 billion, equivalent to 0.2% of assets as of March 31. Equity funds have therefore remained in net outflow territory, indicating that capital conditions for equity mutual funds are still weak and that market risk appetite has yet to show any meaningful recovery.
From a marginal perspective, estimated net outflows narrowed from USD 32.55 billion in the week ended May 6 to USD 29.17 billion in the week ended May 13, a reduction of about USD 3.38 billion. This suggests that although redemption pressure on equity funds persists, the intensity of short-term capital withdrawals has moderated compared with the previous week.
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(YMmain)$ $Micro E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(MYMmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2605(10Ymain)$
Bond funds continued to post net inflows, but the marginal pace of inflows slowed: For the week ended May 13, 2026, US bond funds recorded estimated net inflows of USD 12.56 billion, also equivalent to 0.2% of assets as of March 31. Bond mutual funds therefore continued to attract incremental capital, indicating that demand for stable allocations and defensive positioning remains in place.
From a marginal perspective, estimated net inflows into bond funds for the week ended May 13 came in at USD 12.56 billion, down by about USD 0.79 billion from USD 13.35 billion in the previous week. This indicates that while bond funds remained in net inflow territory, the marginal momentum of inflows eased somewhat relative to the prior week, and allocation demand did not strengthen further.
On the yield curve, as of the latest data on May 20, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield, shown by the blue line, stood at 4.57%, while the 3-month Treasury yield, shown by the yellow line, stood at 3.65%. Looking at the most recent movement on the far right side of the chart, the 3-month short-end yield edged lower over the past week. Meanwhile, the 10-year long-end yield rose sharply in the previous few days before pulling back noticeably on May 20. Overall, the positive spread between the two widened this week compared with last week.
2. Crude oil: inventory drawdowns continued, with the pace accelerating significantly
根据彭博的最新数据显示：
According to the latest Bloomberg data:
As of May 20, 2026, the latest data point, US commercial crude inventories stood at 445.0 million barrels, down 7.863 million barrels from the previous week. Crude inventories at Cushing came in at 25.818 million barrels, down 1.604 million barrels from the previous week. Judging from the trend shown in the chart, commercial crude inventories had basically confirmed a turning point around late April, and then continued to move lower in a volatile manner. In the latest week, the size of the inventory draw expanded significantly, and the inventory curve moved further below the range around the five-year average. As for Cushing inventories, although there had been a phased recovery earlier in 2026, they re-entered a downward trend after April. Current inventory levels remain significantly below the five-year average, indicating that the tightness in inventories at the key US crude delivery hub remains unchanged.
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3. Copper: inventory data has not yet been updated, so the previous commentary is retained
As of May 8, 2026, global visible copper inventories totaled about 1.289 million, still in a relatively elevated range by recent standards. Broken down, CME copper inventories were about 0.621 million short tons, LME copper inventories about 0.544 million metric tons, and Shanghai copper inventories about 0.181 million metric tons. Among them, CME and LME inventories were both at clearly elevated levels compared with recent years, while Shanghai inventories continued their prior downward trend.
Looking at the marginal pattern on the right side of the charts, the latest week still showed a fairly clear divergence between domestic and overseas inventories: Shanghai copper inventories continued to fall, LME copper inventories were roughly flat versus the prior week with only a slight increase, and CME copper inventories posted a small additional rise. Supported by the strong domestic drawdown, global copper inventories were able to offset the overseas build and register a modest decline, with the latest reading down to around 1.289 million tons. In other words, the key features of the latest week were “continued Shanghai drawdown, slight high-level increase in LME and CME inventories, and a small pullback in total inventories.” The absolute inventory burden remains sizable, but recent volatility has been easing.
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4. Aluminum: LME inventories continued to trend lower
As of May 22, 2026, total aluminum inventories across the three major exchanges stood at approximately 0.850 million tons. By component, COMEX aluminum inventories were about 1,218 tons, still at an extremely low level; LME aluminum inventories were about 0.341 million tons, remaining low and continuing to decline; and Shanghai aluminum inventories were about 0.509 million tons, the highest among the three, and still at an absolute high relative to the past two years. It should be noted that the Shanghai inventory chart has not been updated to the latest date, so the calculation of total inventories still uses Shanghai data as of May 15. In terms of marginal changes, LME aluminum inventories continued to fall, COMEX aluminum inventories remained flat at low levels, and Shanghai aluminum inventories rose noticeably last week versus the week before.
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5. Gold and silver: gold inventories remained tight, while silver inventories stabilized
根据wind的最新数据显示：
According to the latest data from Wind:
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Inventory side (physical fundamentals): The latest COMEX gold inventory stood at 28.6815 million troy ounces, continuing to decline from the previous week; COMEX silver inventory stood at 316 million troy ounces, up slightly from the previous week. Looking at the historical trend, gold inventories have remained on a long-term downward trajectory and have continued to fall toward low levels recently. Although silver inventories posted a modest rebound in the latest week, they still remain in a relatively tight range by recent historical standards and have not altered the broader direction of prior inventory depletion.
COMEX gold inventory
COMEX silver inventory
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Capital side (positioning): As of May 12, 2026, non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold stood at 219,800 contracts, while short positions stood at 48,200 contracts; non-commercial long positions in COMEX silver stood at 36,600 contracts, while short positions stood at 10,500 contracts. In marginal terms, gold showed a pattern of “more longs and fewer shorts,” meaning long positions continued to rise while short positions declined, suggesting that capital support for gold prices has strengthened. Silver, by contrast, showed a pattern of “both longs and shorts increasing,” indicating that both bullish and bearish positions were being added, which points to growing market disagreement and potentially more pronounced short-term price volatility.
COMEX gold positioning data
COMEX silver positioning data
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6. Conclusion: understand capital flows and take stock of inventories
In the latest week, on the inventory side, crude oil drawdowns accelerated significantly and remained below the five-year average; copper and aluminum continued to show a divergence between domestic and overseas markets; gold inventories kept falling, while silver inventories stabilized temporarily after previous declines. On the capital side, US equity funds remained in net outflow territory, though the pace of outflows narrowed at the margin; net inflows into US bond funds slowed; gold showed a bullish positioning structure marked by rising longs and falling shorts; and silver saw both long and short positions increase, highlighting intensifying disagreement. Overall, the market has not yet formed a consistent risk appetite. As for what next week may bring, we will have to wait and see.
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