After last week's CPI print, inflation expectations eased slightly, while the U.S.–Iran conflict flared up again and the previously-open strait was once more suspended. That said, this kind of escalation seems to occur almost every weekend, and by the time financial markets open it is quickly shrugged off—so I would not advise anyone to be overly anxious; wait until the market opens and it will speak for itself. Faced with this kind of murky, hard-to-read news flow, the best trading approach is to consider the technical indicators alone, and then set the corresponding strategy based on those indicators.
Chart: CCTV News — “U.S.–Iran clashes hit civilian facilities across several countries; Iran warns of an all-out offensive” (reported July 19, 2026)
I. U.S. equity indices have flipped short-term bearish, but the real direction rests with the Fed
The U.S.–Iran conflict has now dragged on for nearly half a year; the direct headlines matter little to financial markets, but the rebound in oil prices—and the resulting rise in rate-hike expectations—is the market's focus at this stage, so it is entirely normal for the equity indices to weaken. As I stated clearly in an earlier livestream, I take the S&P 500 (the most evenly distributed across sectors) as the benchmark for U.S. equity indices: when it breaks below the 20-day moving average, that is a short-term bearish signal, suitable for partial stop-loss or profit-taking; follow the indicator, and if it rebounds back above the 20-day MA, that flips short-term bullish. Why handle it this way? Because the valuation of U.S. equity indices is in fact not low, and the peripheral indices (such as A-shares, Korean and Japanese equities) have all undergone varying degrees of correction; should a chain reaction set in, volatility would widen rapidly. So for those trading futures or stocks, tight stops and profit-taking are essential. As for options investors: with U.S. indices having climbed all the way up recently, the “sell put” strategy has been in vogue; at this stage I suggest adjusting the strategy parameters. For instance, those selling long-dated puts had better trim position size or switch to rolling short-dated options, to avoid losses from a rapid spike in volatility; while those selling more out-of-the-money puts must consider whether they can accept being assigned—once the move accelerates, assignment may become an unavoidable choice, and only a well-prepared contingency plan lets you cope with a high-volatility market.
$SP500指数主连 2609(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2609(MESmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2609(MNQmain)$ $NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$道琼斯指数主连 2609(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2609(MYMmain)$ $道琼斯30 ETF(CIND.UK)$
$标普500ETF(SPY)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $道琼斯ETF(DIA)$
Chart: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) with the 20-day moving average — price pulled back to and broke below the 20-day MA
II. Gold may once again become the safe-haven of choice
I have consistently held that gold, at this stage, is prone to a sharp, phase-like rebound—just as my early-July article reminded everyone to watch for a rebound in oil. In fact, most of gold's risk has already been released. First, as the strait reopens, the cash flows of the Gulf states are being replenished, so the impetus to dump gold assets is less pressing than before. Second, the slowdown in U.S. CPI growth has also eased the market's anxiety over rate hikes, so the case for gold falling much further no longer really holds. Finally, the People's Bank of China—that great buyer of gold—continues to add to its holdings. Moreover, gold is currently sitting near its 20-month moving average, which serves as the long-term bull-bear watershed for gold and offers strong support; I therefore would not advise being overly bearish on gold at this stage. A rebound may simply be awaiting a news catalyst—something I strongly recommend watching closely.
$A50指数主连 2607(CNmain)$ $恒生指数主连 2607(HSImain)$ $恒生科技指数主连 2607(HTImain)$
$微黄金主连 2608(MGCmain)$ $黄金主连 2608(GCmain)$
$1盎司黄金主连 2608(1OZmain)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $白银主连 2609(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2609(QImain)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$
Chart: COMEX Gold Futures (GC) with the 20-month moving average — price pulled back to near the 20-month MA (around 4,000)
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