Last week, Ethereum’s price surged more than 20%, decisively breaking through the resistance zone set by the highs of March 2024. Now, the only major barrier ahead is its historical all-time high. The question is: how far can this round of capital-driven rally really go, and could any unexpected factors disrupt this market from the grip of the “invisible hand”?
First, I have to admit that my forecasts for Ethereum last year turned out to be way off, largely due to Trump’s “about-face.” Based on his ambitious campaign pledges and the post-election developments at the time, my earlier view was that Ethereum would significantly underperform Bitcoin and fail to break new highs. But this logic changed dramatically after the tariff war began, followed by a steady string of U.S. setbacks. As I’ve mentioned before, Trump has obviously reverted to his old ways — Nvidia once again being held up as a benchmark is the best proof.
When grand reform ambitions are replaced by a singular focus on making money, everything starts to revolve around maximizing profits. In fact, Trump’s eldest son has long been a vocal promoter of Ethereum and his own token. Whether through public endorsements or on-chain data showing his holdings, the signal is clear: for the Trump family, Ethereum > Bitcoin. Since the tariff issues were put on hold in April, Ethereum’s rapid rally — doubling in a short period — was clearly the result of market operations. On-chain data shows gas fees, network activity, and participation levels have all stayed low. In other words, the price surge has nothing to do with the underlying fundamentals.
Knowing this leads to the next conclusion: unless the market bites back, it’s hard to see the price-pushing efforts stopping voluntarily. How many fresh retail investors (“new leeks”) this rally can actually bring in is still uncertain, especially since many traditional investors won’t overcommit to this market. But that doesn’t prevent a paper-value surge.
I had also previously considered whether Trump might pump cryptocurrencies to lure other countries or foreign investors into a trap. However, this kind of operation would mostly end up cutting into American investors instead.
Given the current volatility and market trend, if no tail risks or “black swan” events appear, setting a new all-time high is likely just a matter of time. Ideally, though, this would need Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market to move in sync — for example, Bitcoin also hitting new highs while stocks break free from their previous weekly engulfing pattern. If divergence emerges and intensifies, Ethereum’s new high could end up being just a checkbox target rather than the start of a new bull phase.
As for risk factors, in recent months Trump has clearly reduced both the frequency and unpredictability of his actions — seemingly to keep the market under control. This means that political black swan risks may remain limited until October. Geopolitical factors outside the U.S. are unlikely to change the overall picture. If anything, I’d guess the most probable trigger would be some kind of domestic instability within the U.S., such as worsening economic data or an unexpected topic that hasn’t yet appeared on the radar.
All in all, while I don’t personally like Ethereum and still believe it will eventually revert to its fundamentals, the current market sentiment favors further upside in the near term. Until there is a visible shift in the news cycle, the best stance may be to stay bullish in outlook without actively taking long positions. From a cross-market perspective, volatility in U.S. stocks — especially over this week and next — will influence Ethereum’s upward momentum. If U.S. equities, particularly Nvidia, lose steam, a corresponding correction in crypto would follow as expected.
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