Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm.Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC DataThe CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries—w

US-Iran Ceasefire: Oil Volatility vs. Risk Appetite Brent surged to ~$99.35/bbl (+63.24% YTD), with back-months pricing a sustained Hormuz disruption premium while front-month prints hover near $94–$95. The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ climbed to 19.50 as US equities sold off ( $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -0.63%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -0.59%). For Hong Kong positioning, this creates a sharpened binary: failure = oil gaps toward $100+, energy names rally ( $CNOOC(00883)$ , $PETROCHINA(00857)$ , $CHINA SHENHUA(01088)$ reporting Friday) but broad ris

At present, global risk appetite across risk assets is still mainly driven by U.S. equities. As the marginal impact of Federal Reserve commentary has faded, the absolute dominant force shaping market sentiment remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran war. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ Why do we say the Fed’s commentary has become less influential at the margin? The reason is simple. First, there is no certainty that the so-called new chair, Warsh, will actually be able to take office smoothly

$Boeing(BA)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings tomorrow, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, before the market opens. The stock has faced recent pressure, sliding roughly 3.4% last week following disclosures of wiring rework on the 737 MAX, which has shifted some expected Q1 deliveries into Q2. This makes the upcoming call critical for clarifying whether this is a minor timing issue or a broader production hurdle. Q1 2026 Consensus Estimates Revenue: Expected at approximately $21.92 billion (a ~12.7% YoY increase). Earnings Per Share (EPS): Estimated at -$0.84 (an improvement from the -$1.13 reported in Q1 2025). Implied Move: Options markets are currently pricing in a significant swing, consistent with BA's history of post-earnings volatil

The US-Iran standoff has taken another sharp turn, with Iran refusing another round of talks citing ongoing pressure tactics, while Trump stated he is willing to meet senior Iranian leaders if talks can produce a “breakthrough.” At the same time, a US delegation including JD Vance is reportedly heading to Islamabad on April 20 for potential indirect discussions. Yet Reuters data shows shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill, with only three vessel crossings in 12 hours — confirming the blockade’s real-world impact and keeping global oil flows under severe pressure. Markets opened under pressure today as oil jumped 4%, reflecting the tug-of-war between diplomatic signals and the physical chokepoint reality. The chart of daily vessel transits paints a stark picture: t

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise.There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant.I. Can

Iran has slammed the door on immediate negotiations, with Tasnim agency reporting no plans to send a team to meet the US in Pakistan as long as the American naval blockade remains in place. 😤 This comes just hours after Trump announced the planned meeting, turning what was hoped to be a diplomatic off-ramp into a sharper escalation that keeps the Strait of Hormuz under heavy pressure and global oil flows at risk. The standoff is now a direct test of wills — Trump’s “execution strategy” versus Iran’s refusal to negotiate under duress — and markets are already feeling the heat as the risk premium on energy and safe-haven assets spikes again. With the blockade still active, supply disruption fears are back in focus, potentially adding 7-11 million barrels per day of lost flows if tanker traff

Peace At Last ? Its just as well that there were not too many US economic reports out for the week ending 10 Apr 2026. This is because the Middle East was on the brink of civilization annihilation when Trump almost made good his scarce tactics to level Iran flat. Perhaps it was all the behind the scenes, flurry of activities that helped to successfully brokered the 2-week truce while the tripartite of US, Pakistan and Iran try to work out a lasting peace proposal acceptable to all parties. It was this “peace” deal that help US market to turnaround for better or almost for worse. This is not even considered a “work-in-progress” as both sides are still searching for the common ground to agree upon. Nevertheless, while the peace deal’s details are being sorted out, US economic reports continu

XLE, SHLD and XLP Are 3 ETFs To Use As Defensive Shield on the Iran War  🌟🌟🌟The fragile ceasefire in the 2026 Iran War has expired without a definitive peace agreement, pushing global markets back into a state of high volatility.  As geopolitical risk premiums return, investors are looking beyond broad indices to specific sector ETFs that can serve as either shields or growth drivers. Market Impact  Equities Whipsaw:  After a relief rally fueled by the tentative Islamabad Accord earlier this month, global stocks have begun to dip as uncertainty returns. Energy Prices : Brent Crude oil price has climbed back toward USD 100 a barrel following the US seizure of an Iranian vessel.  Analysts have warned that persistent energy spikes may postpone or reverse anticipated 2

$Strategy(MSTR)$   The MicroStrategy Incorporated stock price gained 2.58% on the last trading day (Monday, 20th Apr 2026), rising from $166.52 to $170.81. It has now gained 6 days in a row. It is not often that stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 6.49% from a day low at $160.64 to a day high of $171.06. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 33.77% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -30 million shares and in total, 22 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $3.74 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes diverg

This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)Course Link1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situationMost assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound whe

There is a Chinese saying - yue miao yue hei (see above) when translated literally it means “the more you try to explain or touch up a matter, the darker it becomes". Actual meaning suggests - attempting to justify a mistake only makes it more obvious or creates further misunderstanding, similar to "making matters worse" or a cover-up. That was exactly when transpired on 01 April 2026 at 9pm ET (or 02 Apr 2026, 9am Singapore time) when Trump addressed US citizens about Iran invasion. Evening Address - Overall. Instead of providing clear answers, Trump’s speech made investors more worried about the risks of war, causing markets to drop in response. As of 02 Apr 2026 - 5pm Singapore time Oil spiked, Asian equities fell, and US futures for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all turned lower as

After a grueling 21-hour negotiation marathon, the U.S. and Iran went from deadlock straight into full breakdown, with President Trump announcing a U.S.-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that has completely shattered the market’s pricing assumptions from the past week. 😤 This aggressive move targets Iran’s oil export lifeline, choking off roughly 20% of global crude flows and instantly reigniting fears of a prolonged supply squeeze that could push WTI and Brent well above $100. The blockade raises the stakes dramatically — will it force a hawkish Fed pivot that resets sky-high Nasdaq valuations, or does Iran’s “time-wasting strategy” crack first before oil hits the $120 threshold? Emerging markets are already feeling the heat, with Asia’s energy importers seeing currency pressure while

Against the backdrop of the macro environment, this class focuses on the correlations among major U.S. asset classes, with an emphasis on the trends of U.S. stock indices and precious metals (CME COMEX gold futures & options, silver futures & options). It also provides brief comments on the current rapidly changing geopolitical situation, highlighting the importance of identifying trading opportunities and risk control amid uncertainty. Course Link: