S&P Target 6500? Is It Safe to Invest at High Levels?

With $.SPX(.SPX)$ recently surpassing the 6,000 point, major institutions have expressed optimism about the U.S. stock market's outlook for next year: Morgan Stanley: Set a base-case year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 at 6,350 points, with a bullish scenario target of 7,400 points. ---------- Will you still invest in US stocks despite of high valuations and low risk premium? Can $.SPX(.SPX)$ hit 6500 as analysts suggest?

BIG TECH WEEKLY | No one but Nvidia? How's semiconductor cycle?

Big-Tech’s PerformanceThere was no more macro guidance for the market this week, with two major events influencing market action: 1. BTC made new highs and hit the $100,000 high, and 2. NVIDIA earnings.Risk sentiment was relatively high, but at the same time, U.S. stocks continued to trade in a divergent manner as the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen and concerns about Trump's policies persisted.Through the close of trading on November 21, Big Tech was mixed over the past week with $Apple(AAPL)$ +0.13%, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ -0.06%, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ -3.28%, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ -6.19%,
BIG TECH WEEKLY | No one but Nvidia? How's semiconductor cycle?
avatarHMH
11-21 15:21

S&P 6500 in Sight? How to Ride the Bull Without Getting Trampled!

The S&P 500 has recently broken the 6,000-point barrier, sparking debate among investors about whether the index can continue its ascent to levels projected by major institutions. Morgan Stanley’s base-case target of 6,350 points by the end of 2025, and their bullish scenario target of 7,400, paints a picture of sustained optimism for U.S. equities. However, with valuations soaring and the risk premium narrowing, many are asking: Is it still safe to invest in U.S. stocks at these elevated levels? Let’s dive into the dynamics shaping the market outlook and discuss how I would approach positioning in this environment. The Case for Optimism Easing Monetary Policy: Recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have breathed new life into equity markets. Lower interest rates reduce the discount r
S&P 6500 in Sight? How to Ride the Bull Without Getting Trampled!
avatarOptionskiwi
11-21 16:39

My Quick Comments on NVDA earnings,BTC ETFs and Fed Path

NVIDIA Reported after the bell this morning All eyes were on $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ that reported quarterly results after the close of the US market today. The company reported quarterly earnings of $0.81 per share which beat analyst’s consensus estimates of $0.75 by 8 percent. Quarterly sales were $35.1 billion which also beat analyst’s consensus estimates of $33.125 billion. This represents a 94 percent increase in sales above $18.120 billion for the same period last year. For the next quarter, Nvidia projects $37.5 billion in revenue at the midpoint. That compares with the $37.1 billion FactSet consensus but obviously was not high enough for some lofty expectations by some. Nvidia shares slipped 1.5% in afterhours trading having closed down 0.8% a
My Quick Comments on NVDA earnings,BTC ETFs and Fed Path

Is Market Content With AI-Driven Nvidia's 94%+ YoY Growth?

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ reported its fiscal 2025 third quarter results on November 20, 2024 after the bell.Results for the period continued to grow strongly, and continued the momentum of previous quarters, reaching $2 billion (2B) over what the market had been expecting (Consensus), with data centers accounting for nearly 90% of the $30 billion in revenue, and proving that the demand for AI arithmetic remains strong.But the market is more concerned about the next quarter's guidance.Revenue guidance of $37.5 billion (up or down 2%) was slightly ahead of market expectations of $37.1 billion, falling short of the "huge expectations" of "over $2 billion", while gross margin guidance was flat at 73%, driven byBlackwell volume production drive, and some in
Is Market Content With AI-Driven Nvidia's 94%+ YoY Growth?

Snowflake Surge 20%+ on Q3 Earnings, while Buffett Sold Off his stake

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ surged 20% after hours after it beat market expectations and lifted guidance in Q3 FY2025.Ever since Warren Buffett's $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ liquidated its position in SNOW in Q2, it has been on a path back up.Financials vs. market expectationsQ3 revenue was $942 million, up 28.3% year-over-year and significantly ahead of market expectations of $898 million.Non-GAAP EPS was $0.20, again beating market expectations of $0.15.Business Performance by SegmentProduct Revenue: Third quarter product revenue reached $900.0 million, an increase of 29% year-over-year, exceeding market estimates of $856.6 million and reflecting Snowflake's success in product expansion and customer attraction.R
Snowflake Surge 20%+ on Q3 Earnings, while Buffett Sold Off his stake
avatarJacksNiffler
11-21 14:58

Thoughs on NVDA Earnings Trading

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ was down nearly 5% after hours, then pulled back to basically pull back and stabilize around -2% afterward.This performance is also very much in line with expectations, and there are a couple of ways to look at the narrative so far:Q3 earnings beat sellers by 2B, well within buyers' expectations, but Q4 guidance didn't come in at 38-39B; sellers expected 37B for Q4 and actually guided for 37B, while buyers were a bit higher.So a 5% drop first is sort of profit taking feedback;Subsequently pulled back may also be some Rush-in funds are still not the overall trend is very good, and Jensen in the conference call also did not while on the Blackwell next year whether the exact completion of the capacity to climb the problem, the mai
Thoughs on NVDA Earnings Trading
avatarMrzorro
11-21 00:39
Wall Street Banks Boost 2025 U.S. Stock Forecasts to 6,500: Will U.S. Equities Maintain Global Leadership? The S&P 500 has climbed more than 24% year-to-date, with Wall Street maintaining a bullish stance on U.S. stocks. Analysts predict the benchmark could hit approximately 6,500 points by 2025, suggesting a 10% upside from Tuesday's close at 5,917. Morgan Stanley: Earnings to Drive S&P 500 to 6,500 by 2025 Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson, known for his bearish stance, has revised his target for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$   to 6,500 points by 2025. In a bull scenario, the target could reach as high as 7,400 points. This marks a notable increase from his June forecast of 5,400 poi
avatarWallStreet_Tiger
11-20 20:13

All Time High: Who Will Drive the Year-End Rally?

Following Nvidia's strong rebound yesterday, the Nasdaq surged higher. Check out the stocks that hit new highs this week!1. $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ soared more than 11% to touch a new all-time high of $449 The company announced buying more bitcoin as bitcoin hit an all time high of near $94000 yesterday.MicroStrategy began accumulating Bitcoin since 2020. Last week, the company invested $4.6 billion to acquire nearly 80,000 more BTC, bringing its total holdings to 331,200 BTC. The performance of MSTR has been closely linked to Bitcoin.Since August 2020, MSTR stock has surged 3,000%, while BTC prices have gained “just” 660%.Despite a 580% increase in MSTR's stock price this year, many investors avoid it due to its poor fundamentals and higher volatil
All Time High: Who Will Drive the Year-End Rally?
avatarMickey082024
11-20 10:19

S&P 500 Bullist Depending on 7 Big Tech outperformance

$.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Several prominent analysts foresee a strong finish for the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) over the next two years, offering potential gains for those interested in U.S. equities. The S&P 500 Index, the primary gauge of U.S. stock market performance, reflects the top 500 companies by market capitalization, as well as criteria like earnings growth and trading liquidity. Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, recently raised his S&P 500 target following an impressive earnings season, setting a new goal of 6,500 by the end of 2025. This represents a potential 10% increase from th
S&P 500 Bullist Depending on 7 Big Tech outperformance
avatarDerivTiger
11-20 10:25

Tiger Weekly Insights:2024/11/11—2024/11/17

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. inflation remains elevated, the economy is strong, but the stock market is plummeting—what exactly is the market worried about? Last week, the U.S. October inflation data was released. The nominal CPI and core CPI rose by 0.2% and 0.3% month-over-month, respectively, staying consistent with previous increases and meeting market expectations. A closer look reveals that only used car prices saw a notable increase, but given their small weight in the index, the overall impact was minimal. The following day, PPI data also came out as expected, with no surprises. In response, Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick indicated that while inflation remains stubborn,
Tiger Weekly Insights:2024/11/11—2024/11/17
avatarTiger_comments
11-19 20:39

Investors All in US Stocks? Is It Safe to Invest at "Dangerous" High Levels?

Investors seem to be all in US stocks.According to EPFR data, US stock ETFs and mutual funds attracted nearly $56 billion in the week ending last Wednesday, marking the second-largest weekly inflow since 2008.These funds have experienced continuous inflows for seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2021.1. Big Banks Raise S&P 500 Target to 6,500 PointsWith $.SPX(.SPX)$ recently surpassing the 6,000 point, major institutions have expressed optimism about the U.S. stock market's outlook for next year:Morgan Stanley: Set a base-case year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 at 6,350 points, with a bullish scenario target of 7,400 points.Goldman Sachs: Raised its year-end 2025 S&P 500 target from 6,300 to 6,500 point
Investors All in US Stocks? Is It Safe to Invest at "Dangerous" High Levels?
avatarSpiders
11-19 21:08

S&P 500 is High, but Is It Safe to Invest at Elevated Levels?

The S&P 500 has seen remarkable growth in recent years, reflecting significant optimism in the market. However, with such elevated levels, investors often face the dilemma of whether it's safe to invest. Here are some critical considerations and strategies for navigating this situation. Potential Scenarios for the S&P 500 Market Correction (Prices Falling Due to Profit-Taking) After a significant rise, a common concern is that investors may sell off their holdings to lock in profits, leading to a market correction. This scenario aligns with the adage, "What goes up must come down," especially if valuations become too stretched or economic conditions deteriorate. A correction can be healthy in the long run but unsettling for investors caught off-guard. Sideways Movement (Market Stay
S&P 500 is High, but Is It Safe to Invest at Elevated Levels?
avatarky0123
11-20 17:13
The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500, has been reaching new heights, with many stocks hitting all-time highs. This upward trend raises the question of how much further the market can go. Despite high valuations, I believe the S&P 500 is likely to reach 6,500 over the next few years. The foundation for this growth lies in strong corporate earnings, the ongoing economic recovery, and confidence from institutional investors. The current rally in the S&P 500 is driven by several factors, notably the impressive earnings reports from many of its constituent companies. Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, businesses have shown resilience, reflecting the strength of the broader economic recovery. With unemployment falling and consumer confidence rising, the U.S. eco
avatarJacksNiffler
11-19 16:01

What is Tesla's Elon Risk?

First of all, I own $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and am a stakeholder.Discussion is for personal opinion only.Tesla has been on an upward trajectory since Trump's election victory, and this rally has nothing to do with fundamentals (since it's not earnings season either), but rather the "realization" of a previously suppressed market.As I said before, Tesla is waiting for an opportunity?--An opportunity to cash in on Trump's rise to power.Now that he's cashed in, Elon Musk has taken it a step further by taking on a key government position - the "DOGE", or Department of Organization of the United States.This important official position of personnel appointment and dismissal is actually very important.But it's also very easy to offend!That's not necessarily
What is Tesla's Elon Risk?

Market Report For 18 November

The stock market action was driven by several factors, including anticipation around major retail earnings, political shifts, and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. Despite some mixed signals, market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic. Key Earnings Reports Investors are closely watching $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ and $Target(TGT)$ as both companies are scheduled to release their earnings today. Data suggests strong expectations, especially for Walmart, which has had a solid year bolstered by grocery sales and international expansion. The performance of these retail giants will serve as a bellwether for consumer demand during the early holiday season. However, the exact results are yet to be announced, and the m
Market Report For 18 November

How Trip.com became a better choice in Chinese stocks?

$Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$ announced Q3 earnings before the market on Nov 18th and rose more than 3% in subsequent U.S. trading, and $TRIP.COM-S(09961)$ rose more than 5% on Nov 19th Hong Kong stock open.The market is relatively receptive to its results.The overall performance was good, but the actual outperformance was not significant compared to the company's previously given guidance.Since Ctrip was the Chinese stock with relatively strong overall performance over the past year, investors' expectations were also relatively high.Since domestic demand for alcohol travel is not particularly buoyant at the moment, it is also relatively difficult to expect significant growth on the revenue side, relyin
How Trip.com became a better choice in Chinese stocks?
avatartastyp0tat0
11-20 08:16
S&P 500 Target $6,500: Is it Safe to Invest? Why the S&P 500 is Surging The S&P 500, a benchmark for U.S. equity markets, has experienced strong momentum driven by several factors: 1. Economic Growth: Resilient GDP growth and a strong labor market have bolstered investor confidence. 2. Corporate Earnings: Robust earnings from major companies, particularly in the tech sector, have contributed significantly. 3. Federal Reserve Policy: Stabilization in interest rates has alleviated pressure on equity valuations. 4. Geopolitical Optimism: Potential resolutions in global conflicts and easing supply chain disruptions support market sentiment. Why It May Be Safe to Invest 1. Long-Term Growth Potential: Historically, the S&P 500 has trended upward over time, benefiting from economi
avatarjayc
11-21 08:04
The S&P 500 has climbed more than 24% year-to-date, with Wall Street maintaining a bullish stance on U.S. stocks. Analysts predict the benchmark could hit approximately 6,500 points by 2025, suggesting a 10% upside from Tuesday's close at 5,917. We should remain cautious of potential risks and uncertainties. While a Trump victory is perceived as a boost for U.S. equities due to his proposed corporate tax cuts, some analysts warn that his policies, such as tariffs and immigration restrictions, could spur inflation and interest rates, posing risks to the stock market.
avatarMoqqa1
11-21 13:02
avatarPatmos
11-21 08:55
Yes we are in a bull market & if earnings are meet easily achieved