Major Indexes Signal Tops with Multi-Month Correction Expected
I'm leaning the tops are now all in for $S&P 500(.SPX)$$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$$Dow Jones(.DJI)$$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ SPX, DJI, and IWM all sent SELL SIGNALS this week while NDX rejected at resistance. SPX topped Jan 28 NDX topped Oct 29 DJI topped Feb 10 IWM topped Jan 21 Expecting a multi-month correction in 2026 with 20–25% drawdown across the board. The path of least resistance is DOWN. SPX has no support until the Monthly FVG at 6,550–6,500. The 3rd wave is confirmed and I'm firmly bearish until NDX, SPX, or DJI crosses their November lows. No reason to be bullish right now. SPX Forecast: 2026–2030 Market Cy
Optimal Short Zone at 6883–6915 as SPX Approaches Key Daily FVG
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ kissed the 61.8% retrace and respected ~6811 FVG resistance. The 2nd wave is either complete or one leg away from terminating. Leaning toward one more push higher, but CPI can change that fast. An H4 iFVG favors it — and CPI tomorrow becomes the catalyst for the 3rd wave decline into the Monthly FVG at 6550. But the cleaner setup is a push into 6883–6915 — the Daily FVG that already rejected price twice. ▸ That's the optimal short zone. H4 FVG at 6760–6734 is the decision zone. ▸ Holds — another leg higher. ▸ Inverts — 3rd wave is underway. CPI decides. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$
$SPX Rally Near 6900 May Precede Major Wave 3 Decline
Today's snapback rally just confirmed the structure. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 1st wave decline — complete. Now correcting in the 2nd wave. Watching for a 61.8–78.6% retrace into the Daily FVG at 6883–6915. That zone already rejected price hard twice — don't expect the third time to be friendly. If this correction completes there, the 3rd wave down will DWARF what we just saw. ALT: If we can't close above the first FVG resistance ~6811, CPI Wednesday could kickstart the 3rd wave without the deeper retrace. Feb 12: " $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2603(YMmain)$ now has a SELL SIGNAL on deck." Since then? The largest decline since April. The sell signal worked. The top is in. And it's not done. I don't miss. For SG
$SPX Near 3rd Wave Trigger as CPI Becomes Key Catalyst
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ missed the 3rd wave confirmation by 1 point. But the damage is done. Odds strongly favor the 3rd wave is already in progress. A cross below 6,710 confirms it. If that occurs, 6,550 is coming. New bearish Daily FVG at 6,773–6,811 should act as resistance on a bounce. Daily close above 6,811 delays it. CPI Wednesday. Catalyst incoming. ALTERNATE: Since SPX did not cross its weekly low at 6,710, the bullish SMT with $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ persists. If price rallies without crossing 6,710 and closes above 6,811 on the Daily, the new Daily FVG inverts — meaning the 2nd wave is still progressing to target the higher Daily FVG at 6,883–6,915. CPI then terminates the 2nd wave and charges the 3rd wa