From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?
Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.
The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.
The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$
Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:
The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.
However, for a longer period, the index kept going down with oil prices at a high level.
But it’s hard to determine whether the stock market is affected by the war or other factors, especially with the complicated high inflation and rate hike cycle.
Are you bullish or bearish towards the war?
Will the war drive Sep. CPI up?
More impacts on rate hike decision or not?
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🌟🌟🌟：战争中没有赢家，只有无尽的痛苦和短暂的生命。当前以色列战争中最大的担忧是它是否会升级到伊朗。如果发生这种情况，油价将会上涨，因为伊朗控制着霍尔木斯海峡的7个岛屿。这是来自中东的油轮经过的地方。
我看跌这场战争，因为油价可能会进一步上涨，导致更高的通胀。这可能会导致美联储继续加息以抑制通胀。所以CPI肯定会受到影响。
让我们祈祷这场战争能尽快解决，让以色列和巴勒斯坦的人民能重新重建他们的生活。
@Tiger_comments
Depends on how long this war lasts for and whether it spreads to neighbouring countries. If limited impact on oil and commodities then we are in the right trend for the Fed to maybe pause rate hike or increase once more. This would be in line with market expectations and stocks will move upwards from here. But if the war escalates, inflation will be harder to control.
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The war won't affect much on the CPI.
There are impacts on rate hike decision. US needs to consider both internal and external. Can the US citizens "shollow" the higher rates? There higher the rates, the higher the products prices.. Companies will pass the higher cost to consumers. Those with property loans will face financial difficulties, and the chain of reactions will further push the cost of living higher.
Opportunities for the careful, calm, and discipline investors.
May the market be with you!
戰爭多頭列出了戰爭和指數表現。似乎五分之四的人在戰爭爆發後呈現出上升勢頭。
The war in Israel is like a storm at sea. It is unpredictable and dangerous. It could sink the ship of the global economy, or it could simply blow over. Only time will tell.
The Fed is the captain of the ship. It is responsible for keeping the economy afloat. The Fed is facing a difficult decision: should it raise interest rates to try to calm the storm, or should it keep interest rates low to support economic growth?
Only time will tell whether the Fed will make the right decision. But one thing is for sure: the war in Israel is a serious threat to the global economy.