From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?
Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.
The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.
The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$
Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:
The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.
However, for a longer period, the index kept going down with oil prices at a high level.
But it’s hard to determine whether the stock market is affected by the war or other factors, especially with the complicated high inflation and rate hike cycle.
Are you bullish or bearish towards the war?
Will the war drive Sep. CPI up?
More impacts on rate hike decision or not?
Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins~
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🌟🌟🌟There are no winners in war but untold suffering and lives cut short. The biggest worry in this current Israeli war is if it escalates to involve Iran. If that happens oil prices will jump because Iran controls 7 islands in the Straits of Hormus. This is where the oil tankers from the Middle East pass through.
I am Bearish on the war because oil prices may increase further, causing higher inflation. This may cause the Feds to continue hiking interest rates to curb inflation. So CPI will definitely be affected.
Let's pray for a speedy resolution to this war so that the people from both countries Israel and Palestine can rebuild their lives again.
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Depends on how long this war lasts for and whether it spreads to neighbouring countries. If limited impact on oil and commodities then we are in the right trend for the Fed to maybe pause rate hike or increase once more. This would be in line with market expectations and stocks will move upwards from here. But if the war escalates, inflation will be harder to control.
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战争不会对消费物价指数产生太大影响。
对加息决策有影响。美国需要内外兼顾。美国市民能“拒绝”更高的利率吗？费率越高，产品价格越高..公司会将更高的成本转嫁给消费者。那些有房产贷款的人将面临财务困难，连锁反应将进一步推高生活成本。
Opportunities for the careful, calm, and discipline investors.
May the market be with you!
戰爭多頭列出了戰爭和指數表現。似乎五分之四的人在戰爭爆發後呈現出上升勢頭。
The war in Israel is like a storm at sea. It is unpredictable and dangerous. It could sink the ship of the global economy, or it could simply blow over. Only time will tell.
The Fed is the captain of the ship. It is responsible for keeping the economy afloat. The Fed is facing a difficult decision: should it raise interest rates to try to calm the storm, or should it keep interest rates low to support economic growth?
Only time will tell whether the Fed will make the right decision. But one thing is for sure: the war in Israel is a serious threat to the global economy.