From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?

Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.

The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.

The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$

Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:

The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.

However, for a longer period, the index kept going down with oil prices at a high level.

But it’s hard to determine whether the stock market is affected by the war or other factors, especially with the complicated high inflation and rate hike cycle.

Are you bullish or bearish towards the war?

Will the war drive Sep. CPI up?

More impacts on rate hike decision or not?

Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins~

# Will oil and gold surge with escalating conflicts?

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  • koolgal
    ·2023-10-11
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    🌟🌟🌟There are no winners in war but untold suffering and lives cut short.  The biggest worry in this current Israeli war is if it escalates to involve Iran.  If that happens oil prices will jump because Iran controls 7 islands in the Straits of Hormus.  This is where the oil tankers from the Middle East pass through.

    I am Bearish on the war because oil prices may increase further, causing higher inflation.  This may cause the Feds to continue hiking interest rates to curb inflation.  So CPI will definitely be affected. 

    Let's pray for a speedy resolution to this war so that the people from both countries Israel and Palestine can rebuild their lives again. 

    @Tiger_comments  

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    • koolgalReplying toCMLeong
      Yes I do hope for World peace 🍀🍀🍀🌈🌈🌈
      2023-10-13
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    • CMLeong
      你說的對👍🏻希望世界和平🙏🏻
      2023-10-13
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    • koolgalReplying tozuma
      My pleasure 😍😍😍
      2023-10-12
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-10-12
    TOP
    war - civilians are the ones suffering. it will also impact the rest of the world. it's just heart breaking to watch or listen to news of such. am bearish towards the war as definitely prices will be affected pushing inflation further to the next level. people will be tightening their pockets. not surprise if Fed gonna rate hike sooner [What] [What] [What] thoughts and prayers for the people in these war torn places [Bless] [Bless] [Bless] reposting and tagging @Shyon @Aqa @Success88 @SR050321 @xXxZealandxXx @LMSunshine @rL @Universe宇宙 @HelenJanet come comment and share your thoughts and win coins [smile] [smile] [smile]
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  • MHh
    ·2023-10-11

    Depends on how long this war lasts for and whether it spreads to neighbouring countries. If limited impact on oil and commodities then we are in the right trend for the Fed to maybe pause rate hike or increase once more. This would be in line with market expectations and stocks will move upwards from here. But if the war escalates, inflation will be harder to control. 

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  • AliceSam
    ·2023-10-10
    虽然很难确定股市是受到战争还是其他因素的影响,尤其是在复杂的高通胀和加息周期下。但是我还是看跌。
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  • Tiger_comments
    ·2023-10-16

    @不死鸟.

    @Tiger50

    @WanEH

    @AdamDavis

    @散修2706

    @AliceSam

    @Khikho

    @MasterStonker

    @HermanL

    @Success88

    @Joker_Smile

    @cfybao

    @Bunifa Latif

    @TimothyX

    @SnakeToad

    @andrew123

    @highhand

    @Bigfella

    @Kok

    @DavidSG

    @MHh

    @Stock Watch

    @hd87

    @icycrystal

    @koolgal

    Thank you for commenting on my post. Your coins have been sent to your account~ Don't forget to check your tiger coins💖

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  • MHh
    ·2023-10-11
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  • Kok
    ·2023-10-11
    I think the war is a non event as long as the conflict doesn't spread to the neighboring oil producing countries. With more uncertainties coming up, I think the Fed would think twice about raising rates again
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  • 散修2706
    ·2023-10-11
    会多多少少推高CPI, 当然也会多多少少对加息决策有影响,当然也需要一些时间反应出来
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  • Stock Watch
    ·2023-10-11
    Short term,  I'm bearing towards the war for travel related stocks. But I'm bullish for energy stocks.
    The war won't affect much on the CPI.

    There are impacts on rate hike decision. US needs to consider both internal and external.  Can the US citizens "shollow" the higher rates? There higher the rates, the higher the products prices.. Companies will pass the higher cost to consumers. Those with property loans will face financial difficulties, and the chain of reactions will further push the cost of living higher.

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  • DavidSG
    ·2023-10-11
    Usually bearish for war situations. But not all wars are the same. But market is always forward looking when the war is short lived.
    Opportunities for the careful, calm, and discipline investors.
    May the market be with you!
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  • Bigfella
    ·2023-10-11
    in the short term it will have its gains. and parts will not be  affected unless area involved. and after it all ends it put it in volital spiral off uncertainty. so it is B&B
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  • TimothyX
    ·2023-10-10
    一些人認爲,戰爭會造成經濟不穩定,導致股市出現熊市趨勢,而另一些人則認爲,某些行業,如國防和技術,在衝突時期可能會經歷看漲增長。


    戰爭多頭列出了戰爭和指數表現。似乎五分之四的人在戰爭爆發後呈現出上升勢頭。
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  • Khikho
    ·2023-10-10
    发战争财的毕竟是少数,对大多数人来说,战争都是会带来负面影响,战争会造成经济不稳定,导致股市出现熊市趋势。
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  • hd87
    ·2023-10-10

    The war in Israel is like a storm at sea. It is unpredictable and dangerous. It could sink the ship of the global economy, or it could simply blow over. Only time will tell.


    The Fed is the captain of the ship. It is responsible for keeping the economy afloat. The Fed is facing a difficult decision: should it raise interest rates to try to calm the storm, or should it keep interest rates low to support economic growth?


    Only time will tell whether the Fed will make the right decision. But one thing is for sure: the war in Israel is a serious threat to the global economy.


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  • WanEH
    ·2023-10-17
    油价应该会继续在80~90美元期间徘徊。以巴冲突影响油价比想象中来的小
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  • WanEH
    ·2023-10-10
    我是觉得短期看跌,长期还是看涨的 毕竟Palestine太小了
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  • SnakeToad
    ·2023-10-11
    defence sector stocks like lockheed martin have already spiked once, but probably have more room to rise
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  • highhand
    ·2023-10-11
    war had no impact to the stocks. year end rally just started. CPI going down. no more rare hikes. enjoy the ride.
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  • Success88
    ·2023-10-10
    War always bad for stock and people suffer from war. Hopefully can end fast
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  • andrew123
    ·2023-10-11
    bearish cos inflation will  remain high for  longer period if time n interest rate will remain high
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