History data: How will market perform after a strong Q1?

Q1 is a happy quarter for most of investors with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ being poised for a nearly 10% price gain in the first quarter, with a remarkable 30% rally from its October 27 low.

After about 10% gains, can we expect more?

Data from 1970 suggests that such strong beginnings often indicate a continuation of the rally.

S&P 500 historically shows an average first-quarter gain of 2.5%.

When the index outperforms this,

Q2 typically sees an even higher gain.

S&P 500 tends to be up around 69% of the time in this scenario, compared to an average of around 64%.

This Q1 performance definitely surpasses 2.5%!

If S&P 500 index rises by more than 10% in the first quarter, there will be a more significant boost for the second quarter, with a 78% probability of the S&P 500 index rising.

Specifically, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 1.59% and 5.17% in the previous two months. The key is how S&P closes tonight.

Can $S&P 500(.SPX)$ close with a 10% gain in Q1?

No matter how S&P closes, can we expect more gains?

Share your thoughts to win tiger coins!

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  • Universe宇宙
    ·03-28
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  • icycrystal
    ·03-29
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    everything is possible especially Fed is cutting rate in the near future. expecting bull charging... [smile] [smile] [smile]

    @rL @LMSunshine @koolgal @HelenJanet @DiAngel @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @Shyon @Aqa

    Can $S&P 500(.SPX)$ close with a 10% gain in Q1?


    No matter how S&P closes, can we expect more gains?


    Share your thoughts to win tiger coins!

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    • Shyon
      [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]
      03-29
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    • Universe宇宙
      [ShakeHands]
      03-29
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  • Shyon
    ·03-28
    TOP

    I think S&P will remain bullish this year after being pulled back for the past years. Time for S&P to shine! No matter the index can close with a 10% gain or not in Q1, I believe we can easily expect more gains for the index until end of the year. The key contributor will be the ease of inflation tension and also the interest rate decrease thought the year.

    Resilient corporate profits, enthusiasm around AI and hopes that the Fed will cut rates have given investors plenty of reasons to keep on buying. Will you invest in the major index like $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $DJIA(.DJI)$  $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$   this year?

    The S&P 500 Index is the overall measurement standard for the top 500 listed companies in the United States. The rating company Standard & Poor's selects 500 leading companies from all industries in the U.S. stock market based on market capitalization and liquidity. The stocks are drawn from both the NYSE and NASDAQ. The S&P 500 index contains many more companies than the Dow Jones Index. Therefore, it can better reflect the changes in the US stock market, and the risks are more diversified. In addition, the weighting methods used by the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Indices are very different. The Dow uses stock price weighting, while the S&P 500 uses market value weighting, which can better reflect the actual value of each company's stock while reflecting the rise and fall of the US economy. 

    @Daily_Discussion  @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  @MillionaireTiger @Tiger_comments  @TigerSG  

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  • MHh
    ·03-28
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    Definitely! Rate cuts are expected this year and this is also the year of presidential election in the US. Because of the latter, we should be expecting rate cuts this year than not. Rate cuts will definitely be the biggest rallying factor for market this year!
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  • Success88
    ·03-28
    Need to see the recent Baltimore bridge collapse will affect the overall supply chain. It might push up the CPI again. So i can said Q2 will be just a small -/+ 5-% level gain of lost
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  • highhand
    ·03-29
    follow the trend. the trend is your friend. now the momentum is Up. S&P can close higher then 10% in Q1, and even higher for the rest of the year.
    like superman said... up up and away!
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  • WanEH
    ·03-29
    我觉得接下来还是比较乐观的。美国美联储接下来应该会慢慢的降息,更多资金会流入股市
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  • Spiders
    ·03-28
    Predicting the future trajectory of the stock market is challenging due to the multitude of potential variables and events that could unfold.
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  • WanEH
    ·03-29
    长期而言,标普500还是呈现向上的趋势,而且还有人工智能课题的加持。
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  • ECLC
    ·03-29
    Mostly expect S&P to continue in bullish mode; more excitement ahead with upcoming rate cuts and election.
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  • Aqa
    ·03-28
    Sure $S&P 500(.SPX)$ can clise with a 10% gain in Q1. Maybe more… Bulls are here!
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  • Inflation has the answer 😅
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