Will Conflicts Force S&P to Drop Below 5000?

Tiger_comments
04-16

The three major indices retraced as conflicts escalates, with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closing at $5061 on Monday.

Israel’s military chief Herzi Halevi said Iran’s attack on the country “will be met with a response”.

  • Investors' concerns about potential retaliation from Israel have further intensified market risk aversion sentiment.

  • However, some argue that this official stance is more like a "show" by both sides and will not lead to further substantive impacts.

The market selloff was also driven by expectations of interest rate hikes.

UBS’s economic team believes that

if inflation pressures persist, federal funds rate may rise to 6.5% in the coming year.

Market giants such as $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ , and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ have also started to pull back due to various reasons.

 

 

Will S&P 500 drop below 5000 or rebound tonight?

How will these bearish news impact on market?

Is it a minor correction or end of bull market?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

# Rate Cut Delay: Will S&P Drop Below 5000?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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  • icycrystal
    ·04-16
    TOP

    maybe, perhaps.... market can swing either way...

    @TigerGPT @Universe宇宙 @koolgal @HelenJanet @rL @LMSunshine @Shyon @Aqa @GoodLife99 @DiAngel

    Will S&P 500 drop below 5000 or rebound tonight?


    How will these bearish news impact on market?


    Is it a minor correction or end of bull market?


    Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

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    • Universe宇宙: 
      [ShakeHands]
      04-16
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    • koolgal: 
      Thanks for sharing your insights 😍😍😍
      04-16
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    • TigerGPT: 

      根据最新的新闻报道，S&P 500指数在最近的交易中出现了下跌的趋势。以下是一些与S&P 500指数和市场走势相关的新闻：

      《早在3月市场就开始避险交易？》：这篇文章讨论了市场在3月份开始出现避险交易的迹象，可能对市场产生影响。阅读更多

        

      《A股收评：三大指数遭重挫，逾4800只个股下跌！》：这篇文章报道了A股市场的大幅下跌，对市场产生了负面影响。阅读更多

        

      《A股收盘：上证指数跌1.65%，ST板块持续走弱》：这篇文章提到，A股市场的三大指数集体收跌，ST板块持续走弱。阅读更多

        

      《小心美股“业绩杀”！小摩警告：市场过度乐观》：这篇文章引用了摩根大通策略师的警告，指出市场对企业财报季的乐观情绪可能过度消化，可能对美国股市产生负面影响。阅读更多

        

      《七巨头中三家“熄火”！科技股分化对市场意味着什么？》：这篇文章讨论了科技股的分化对市场的影响，同时提到了标普500指数成分股公司发布的第一季度每股收益指引中负面指引的比例较高。阅读更多

        

      《受地缘政治和美联储加息担忧影响，美国股市连续第二天下跌》：这篇文章报道了美国股市连续下跌的情况，原因是对地缘政治风险和美联储加息的担忧。阅读更多

        

      根据这些新闻报道，目前市场存在一些不利因素，可能对S&P 500指数和其他股票产生负面影响。然而，需要注意的是，市场走势是受多种因素影响的，无法准确预测未来的走势。因此，无法确定S&P 500指数是否会在今晚下跌到5000以下或反弹。这可能是一个短期的调整，也可能标志着牛市的结束。投资者应该密切关注市场动态，并根据自己的投资策略做出决策。

      请注意，以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资有风险，投资者应自行决策，并在投资前进行充分的研究和风险评估。

      04-16
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·04-16
    TOP
    @TigerGPT Since May 2024 is coming, can you go to Internet to summarize what usually happen to the stock market during the month of May for the past 10 to 20 years. Thanks.
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    • TigerGPT: 

      During the month of May, there is a well-known adage in the stock market called "Sell in May and go away." This refers to the historically weaker performance of stocks from May to October compared to the other half of the year. However, it is important to note that historical trends may not always hold true in the future.

      According to Investopedia, the "Sell in May and go away" strategy suggests that investors should sell their stocks in May and reinvest in November to avoid the potential seasonal decline in stock prices. This strategy is based on the idea that trading volumes and market liquidity tend to decrease during the summer months, leading to lower returns.

      On the other hand, there have been instances where the stock market performed well in May. For example, in May 2020, the S&P 500 rose by more than 6% following a strong rally in April. This indicates that market performance during May can vary from year to year.

      It is important to consider various factors such as economic conditions, geopolitical events, and company-specific news when analyzing the stock market. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.

      Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It is always advisable to consult with a financial professional or conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

      Source 1: Investopedia - "Sell in May and Go Away': Definition, Statistics, and Drawbacks"

      Source 2: The Motley Fool - "Stock Market in May: What Happened and Why?"

      04-16
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  • Tiger V
    ·04-20
    TOP
    Given the current market environment, including the ongoing conflict and concerns about potential retaliation from Israel, the S&P 500 could face significant volatility in the short term. The market selloff was also influenced by expectations of interest rate hikes, adding to the bearish sentiment. Monitoring developments closely and staying adaptable to changing conditions will be key for investors.

    @TigerGPT how do you think about the movement for S&P 500?

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    • TigerGPT: 

      The S&P 500 index, represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (stock code: SPY), closed at $4967.23 on April 20, 2024. It is important to note that the S&P 500 is an index that represents the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies and is not a single company itself.

      In terms of recent earnings data, there is no specific information available for the S&P 500 as it is an index comprised of multiple companies. Therefore, it is not possible to provide an analysis of the stock's latest earnings and earnings forecast.

      Regarding recent trends, the S&P 500 has experienced some volatility. The support price on April 18, 2024, was $487.27, while the resistance price was $515.17. The average cost on the same date was $500.91. As of April 20, 2024, the stock price of the S&P 500 was $495.16.

      In terms of capital flow, there have been fluctuations in recent days. On April 12 and April 15, there were significant outflows, while on April 16, there was a small inflow. On April 17 and April 18, there were further outflows. The specific amounts of these flows are as follows:

      April 12: Outflow of $472,696.53 (in thousands)  

      April 15: Outflow of $442,793.99 (in thousands)  

      April 16: Inflow of $18,764.25 (in thousands)  

      April 17: Outflow of $218,183.54 (in thousands)  

      April 18: Outflow of $50,217.03 (in thousands)  

      As for the analyst's viewpoints and target price, no specific information is available for the S&P 500 as it is an index. Analysts typically provide viewpoints and target prices for individual stocks within the index.

      In terms of recent news, the ongoing conflicts and concerns about potential retaliation from Israel have contributed to market risk aversion sentiment. Additionally, expectations of interest rate hikes have also influenced the market selloff. It is important to note that the impact of these bearish news on the market can vary, and it is advisable to closely monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions.

      Please note that the above analysis is based on available information and historical data, and it is not possible to predict future movements of the S&P 500 with certainty. Investing in the stock market carries inherent risks, and stock prices can fluctuate. It is recommended that investors conduct their own research and analysis and consider their individual investment goals and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

      Disclaimer: The above analysis and information should not be considered as investment advice. The analysis is for informational purposes only, and the inherent risks in the stock market should be taken into account. Investors should exercise independent judgment and caution when making investment decisions.

      04-20
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  • highhand
    ·04-17
    hopefully correction between 5 to 10%. So many juicy stocks to buy.... bull market carries on after this. the correction will be slow around over month, so S&P remains above 5000 for tonight.
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  • Spiders
    ·04-16
    Nothing is truly impossible. Experience has taught me that my predictions about stock prices often miss the mark. So, instead of guessing, I'll patiently observe and await the outcome.
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  • Sginvest
    ·04-16
    Yes the best is it drops to <4000, a much needed correction, inflation has gone crazy we need a massive recession, actually wish gloval financial crisis happens again for a massive reset
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  • TimothyX
    ·04-16
    投資者對以色列可能進行報復的擔憂進一步加劇了市場避險情緒加劇。
    然而，一些人認爲，這一官方立場更像是雙方的一場“表演”不會導致進一步的實質性影響。
    市場拋售也是由加息預期推動的。
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  • MHh
    ·04-16
    It all depends if the war escalates and if there will be further rate hikes or cuts. These few years, prices move more based on ‘market mood’ rather than fundamentals. There will of course people who want to buy when it’s cheaper or take profit now before it drops further. Expecting the next month to be quite volatile.
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  • Aqa
    ·04-16
    The S&P 500 index has tumbled in the last few days to dangerously 5061, amidst the geopolitical conflicts and tensions. Wall Street analysts are expecting the S&P 500 to tumble 30%, recover, then suffer a historic crash. They predicted
    that the Federal Reserve would shore up the market before the election. But then the economic and geopolitical forces would cause a market collapse after the race ends.
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  • BenjiFuji
    ·04-16
    This just a wild guess not to be traded on.
    I am thinking that S&P500 will hold above 5000. Market will continue its bull run unless some major black swan occurs. Like if Israel declares war on Iran. Or if US UK and the allies decides to attack Iran. Then we will be seeing more bearish sentiment. [Glance]
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  • Barcode
    ·04-16
    The Middle East conflict could impact the S&P 500 in various ways, considering market uncertainty reflected in indicators like the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), economic indicators such as US Treasury yields and corporate earnings, and global issues like oil prices. Understanding its potential effect would require a very comprehensive analysis.
    For today I think it will remain above 5000.
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  • WanEH
    ·04-18
    我觉得有可能会跌到5000然后又反弹一下。之后会在5000点左右徘徊横盘
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  • MasterStonker
    ·04-16
    The markets have overrun and the gorengs are overdone. So SPX will have to drop!!
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  • MasterStonker
    ·04-16
    More like interest rates stay up and cuts don't happen then you will get a dropping SPX la...
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  • 爱上投资学
    ·04-16
    以目前来看，今天还会往下走并可能跌破5000点
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  • MilkTeaBro
    ·04-16
    it could be anytime. I don't make judgements on the short term future.
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