【🎁有獎話題】黃金不斷創新高！白銀和黃銅期貨仲可以追上嗎？

期貨茄哩虎
09-23

各位小虎們好呀！在上週美聯儲降息落地後，現貨黃金和黃金期貨的價格再創新高，美股道瓊斯指數和標普500指數同樣創下新高的水平，雖然降息幅度超乎市場預期，但從市場反應來看，效果還是立竿見影。[Happy]

在市場不斷拉高黃金預期後，作為小兄弟的白銀和黃銅是否能趕上老大哥的步伐呢？[Lovely]

黃金期貨再創新高黃金期貨再創新高

不要低估白銀在降息週期的表現？

黃金價格的不斷上漲，反映了美聯儲降息以及通脹的影響，同時也反映了全球各地央行和投資者的“黃金熱”，從2022年底開始，他們都瘋狂增持黃金儲備。中國作為黃金增持第一大國外，印度等國也開始不斷增持黃金。有分析師認為，黃金是對衝2025年通脹飆升的最佳工具，3000美元的目標價已經不是夢了。[Cool]

但別忘了，白銀和白銀期貨在上半年也創下新高，根據市場數據，從過去三輪降息週期開始後的兩年內，白銀價格平均上漲超30%。但從過去十年，黃金和白銀的表現來看，白銀與黃金還有很大的差距。[Duh]

黃金與白銀歷年來的走勢比較 圖源：ZeroHedge黃金與白銀歷年來的走勢比較 圖源：ZeroHedge

高盛認為，受到美聯儲立場後期更為鴿派、白銀是AI建設的關鍵組成部分、以及白銀的倉位比黃金更低等因素影響，白銀將會迎來突破性飆升。瑞銀分析師近期也表示，在美元走弱、市場投資偏好改善、黃金不斷新高，都刺激了白銀的反彈，該行預計白銀目標價格為36至38美元/盎司。[Surprised]

瑞銀對白銀的工業需求依舊保持樂觀，雖然全球近期製造業的數據呈現比較疲軟的狀態，瑞銀預計在全球新能源轉型的大趨勢下，白銀需求增長是長期趨勢。[Serious]

圖源：TOP1 Markets圖源：TOP1 Markets

銅去庫存化困難！

5月15日，COMEX銅盤中漲超4%，達到最高的5.128美元/磅，觸及歷史高位，在這之前，銅的價格已經連續多個交易日上行，今年2月的漲幅已經將近30%！[Miser]

但在5月份之後，銅價出現大幅回調，回調的主要原因主要是由於行業需求抑制和季節性淡季來臨。今年以來，全球銅庫存量達到2019年以來的最高水平，其中LME的庫存量已經累積增加到將近240,000公噸，創下2021年10月以來的最高水平。[OMG]

庫存量的不斷增加也暗示市場供應過剩的現實，去庫存的速度並沒有想象的那麼迅速，供需失衡的狀態，在短期內也壓制了銅價上漲的空間。[Cry]

銅庫存變化 圖源：CME芝商所銅庫存變化 圖源：CME芝商所

但在8月初跌至4個月低點後，最近銅價和黃銅期貨的走勢有所上漲。有分析師認為，價格上漲的部分原因是對衝基金需求的恢復，這些基金之前削減了對該金屬的敞口。再加上美聯儲正式開啓降息週期，歷史數據表明預防性降息會助推銅價的上漲。[Sly]

白銀和黃銅能追上黃金的步伐嗎？

從白銀和黃銅主連期貨兩者的走勢來看，雖然白銀與黃金仍存在差距，但不可否認，白銀期貨最近的走勢還是很好地追隨黃金的步伐，目前已經已經突破30美元的關口，距離歷史前高也只有2美元的差距，從金銀比來看，如果這個比率達到80時，許多投資者會尋求白銀買入機會，最近幾周，這個比率都在80至85區間，在黃金接連創下新高的時候曾超過90！如果白銀能在30美元的關口守住並衝擊歷史新高的話，很有可能複製黃金期貨的走勢。[Tongue]

黃銅的表現就與黃金和白銀相差比較大，雖然近期也接連上漲，但現在觸及到前期壓力位4.34美元，如果不能突破這一價位，疊加黃銅供應大於需求的情況，後市價格又將會步入回調的節奏，小虎們在探索機會的同時，也要注意風險管理哦~~~[Onlooker]

白銀期貨價格突破30美元關口白銀期貨價格突破30美元關口

黃銅主連期貨價格觸及壓力位黃銅主連期貨價格觸及壓力位

小虎們，你們怎麼看白銀和黃銅的表現呢？白銀和黃銅期貨還能追上黃金的步伐嗎？[Love you]

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# Gold Hits $2700! Is $3000 Possible in 2024?

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Comment（87）

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  • 非一般股民
    ·09-23
    買美債 $債券20+美公債指數ETF-iShares(TLT)$
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  • Aqa
    ·09-23
    现在降息开始了，白银和黄铜期货终能追上黄金的步伐。
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  • icycrystal
    ·09-23
    TOP
    @SPACE ROCKET @nomadic_m @TigerGPT about this post:

    Hello, little tigers! After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, the prices of spot gold and gold futures hit new highs, and the U.S. stock Dow Jones Index and S&P 500 Index also hit new highs. Although the rate cut exceeded market expectations, judging from the market reaction, the effect was still immediate.

    After the market continues to raise expectations for gold, can silver and brass, as the younger brothers, catch up with the big brother?

    Little tigers, what do you think of the performance of silver and brass? Can silver and brass futures catch up with gold?

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  • icycrystal
    ·09-23
    TOP
    China is the largest foreign country to increase its gold holdings, and countries such as India have also begun to increase their gold holdings. Some analysts believe that gold is the best tool to hedge against soaring inflation in 2025, and a target price of $3,000 is no longer a dream.
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  • icycrystal
    ·09-23
    TOP
    @HelenJanet @LMSunshine @Shyon @Aqa
    All valid comments on the following posts will receive 5 tiger coins.

    📹 The top 10 and bottom 10 little tigers with eligible comments will receive another 10 tiger coins.

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    • Shyon: 
      Thanks for sharing
      09-23
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  • icycrystal
    ·09-23
    TOP
    performance of brass is quite different from that of gold and silver. Although it has also risen one after another recently,But now it has hit the previous pressure level of US $4.34. If it cannot break through this price level and the supply of brass exceeds demand, the price in the market outlook will enter a correction rhythm again.
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  • icycrystal
    ·09-23
    rising price of gold reflects the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and inflation, as well as the "gold fever" of central banks and investors around the world.
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  • nomadic_m
    ·09-23
    Silver and silver futures also reached new highs in the first half of the year, with prices rising over 30% on average during the past three rate-cutting cycles. However, silver still lags behind gold.
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  • nomadic_m
    ·09-23
    Goldman Sachs predicts silver will surge due to:

    1. Fed's dovish stance
    2. Silver's role in AI development
    3. Low silver inventory

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  • nomadic_m
    ·09-23
    TOP
    UBS forecasts silver prices between $36-38/oz, driven by:

    1. Weakening dollar
    2. Improved market sentiment
    3. New energy trends

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  • nomadic_m
    ·09-23
    TOP
    Silver futures have followed gold's lead, breaking through $30/oz. If silver holds this level and approaches its historical high, it may replicate gold's performance.
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  • nomadic_m
    ·09-23
    TOP
    Copper's performance lags behind gold and silver. Although prices have risen recently, failure to break through $4.34 may lead to a price correction.
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  • Shyon
    ·09-23
    TOP
    白银和黄铜未来可能会跟随黄金的步伐，但其追赶黄金的可能性受到多种因素影响，包括经济周期、市场情绪、通货膨胀和全球供需关系。
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  • nomadic_m
    ·09-23
    Challenges:

    1. Economic slowdowns or recessions can reduce industrial demand.
    2. Global inventory levels and supply chain dynamics impact prices.
    3. Competition from alternative materials and technologies.

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  • Shyon
    ·09-23
    黄金作为避险资产，在经济不确定性加剧时，投资者倾向于转向黄金以保护财富。其价格受到地缘政治紧张局势、通货膨胀和中央银行增持的支撑。在全球经济动荡时，黄金的需求通常会显著增加。
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  • Shyon
    ·09-23
    TOP
    白银具有双重性质，既是投资资产，也是工业金属，其价格受投资需求和工业需求的双重影响。白银在电子、太阳能和汽车制造等领域有广泛应用，经济增长期其价格可能上涨。然而，白银的波动性较大，市场情绪变化时往往表现得更为剧烈。
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  • Shyon
    ·09-23
    若全球经济持续复苏，白银和黄铜可能会受益于工业需求增长，尤其在可再生能源和基础设施投资方面。如果通货膨胀持续高企，黄金作为保值资产的吸引力可能增强，白银和黄铜也有望随之上涨，但幅度可能有限。
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  • nomadic_m
    ·09-23
    To catch up with gold, silver and copper need:

    1. Sustained economic growth
    2. Increased industrial demand
    3. Supply chain disruptions or inventory declines
    4. Investment demand and market sentiment shifts

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  • MHh
    ·09-23
    白银会追上黄金的步伐，黄铜难说
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  • MHh
    ·09-23
    @Universe宇宙 @SPOT_ON @Success88 @Fenger1188 @SR050321 @rL @Kaixiang @HelenJanet @Wayneqq @DiAngel 来参与
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