ASML Plummets 16%! Can TSMC Save the Day?
$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ originally scheduled to release its earnings on Wednesday, surprised the market by announcing them early on Tuesday. Following the report, ASML's stock plunged by as much as 17%, marking its biggest intraday drop since 2008.
Since hitting an all-time high in July, ASML's stock has already fallen by 30%.
The selloff wasn't limited to ASML—other equipment manufacturers like $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ and $Lam Research(LRCX)$ dropped by 11%, $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ by 15%, and semiconductor giants such as $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ also followed suit.
“Disappointed” with bad news piling up.
ASML revealed that its orders for Q3 were only 2.6 billion euros, nearly half of the market's expected 5.4 billion euros.
Furthermore, the company lowered its 2025 guidance, cutting revenue estimates from the previously projected 30-40 billion euros to 30-35 billion euros. Gross margin estimates were also revised down from 54%-56% to 51%-53%.
Management warned that aside from AI, the recovery in demand for other chips is falling short of expectations.
But is it really that bad? Is this a buying opportunity?
Despite the short-term setback, ASML's long-term prospects remain positive.
The company’s Q3 performance was still strong, with revenue of 7.5 billion euros, up 12% year-over-year, exceeding the upper end of management’s guidance of 7.3 billion euros. Furthermore, ASML's management highlighted that AI demand is exceptionally strong with further room for growth.
Following the sharp drop, ASML's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen to 38, reaching its lowest level in recent years. After yesterday’s plunge, ASML's stock is now back to its opening price for the year at $730, with the next support level at $560.
Whether it’s a buying opportunity will depend on this week’s TSM earnings report.
TSMC is set to release its earnings before market open tomorrow. Given TSMC’s better-than-expected update in September, can it turn the tide and save the semiconductor industry?
How do you view ASML’s plunge?
Is it a buying opportunity at $700 or not?
Can TSM’s earnings save the day for semiconductor?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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On a more positive note, TSMC is currently not affected by the trade tensions, as it has managed to navigate the geopolitical landscape effectively. If TSMC publishes strong earnings, it could serve as a crucial catalyst for the semiconductor sector, boosting confidence among investors. Positive results from TSMC may signal robust demand for chips and reassure the market about the industry's resilience amid ongoing challenges. Overall, while ASML's situation is concerning, TSMC's performance could play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment for the semiconductor industry.
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📈🚀📉🚀 Tech Tumbles & Crypto Climbs: Navigating Market Waves! 🚀📉🚀📈
Kia ora Tiger traders!
💹 We’ve got a mix of moves across sectors, from the tech pullbacks to crypto climbs. Grab your coffee ☕ and let’s dive into the charts, trends, and what could be in store for the week ahead! 📊✨
📈 Bitcoin ($BTC) - Approaching Key Resistance 🪙
Bitcoin is currently sitting at $67,168, steadily moving upwards and testing a crucial resistance zone. The chart hints at a breakout brewing, and we might just be gearing up for a rocket ride to $70K! 🚀🌕 But remember, BTC likes to keep us on our toes… watch out for dips before take-off! 🏄♂️📉
• 🟢 Support: $62,000
• 🔴 Resistance: $69,000 - A break here could mean a rally towards $75,000!
🧠 Latest Analyst Take: “Bitcoin’s momentum is strong as institutional investments flood back. If we breach $69K, it could ignite a new wave of buying. But tread cautiously, it’s still volatile!” — CryptoPro Mike Anderson
📉 ASML ($ASML) - Semiconductor Struggles 💻✨
Yikes! 😳 📉📉📉 ASML took a major hit, plummeting 16.26% today after an accidental early earnings release showed disappointing forecasts. With pre-market bids around $702.97 (-3.90%), this stock’s flashing 🛍️discount signals, but it’s also a caution zone. ⚠️🚨
What’s Behind the Drop?
ASML’s earnings revealed lower-than-expected Q3 net sales at €7.5 billion ($7.9 billion), missing forecasts. This, coupled with export restrictions, particularly impacting sales to China, has significantly dented future growth prospects. Recent geopolitical tensions are adding to the storm, with analysts highlighting ASML’s 26.3% revenue exposure to China as a critical risk.
• 📊 Pre-Market Movement: $694 (-4.99%)
• 🟢 Buy Ratings: 🟢 12 🟡 5 🔴 2
• Support to Watch: $700 - If this level breaks, we might see further dips.
• Resistance: $770 - A tough climb back up, but one to watch if sentiment improves!
🔍 Top Insight: Is ASML a buying opportunity at $700? Here’s my take: it’s a risky play, but for those looking long-term, $700 could represent a strategic entry point. Yes, the export restrictions are still a major concern, but ASML’s dominance in advanced lithography technology means it’s not out of the game yet. I’d recommend watching how the stock reacts around this support level. If it stabilises, it might be worth a dip-buy; otherwise, further declines could still be on the cards.
📊 TSM ($TSM) - Can Earnings Save the Day for Semiconductors? 🌐💾
TSM is currently trading pre-market at $188.80, and all eyes are on their earnings report set for October 17. Analysts have high expectations, predicting a 40% surge in profit driven by strong AI chip demand from industry giants like Nvidia and Apple. TSM has managed to report robust sales figures, totalling NT$759.7 billion for Q3, surpassing prior estimates, which could set the stage for a positive surprise during the earnings release.
• 🟢 Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy, Price Target: $207.50
• 🧠 Market Expectation: “A solid earnings report from TSM could serve as a confidence booster for the entire semiconductor sector, especially after recent disappointments from companies like ASML,” says Dan Niles, Niles Investment Management.
💬 Can TSM earnings save the day? Absolutely! If TSM delivers strong earnings, it could act as a much-needed lifeline for the semiconductor sector. With AI demand fueling growth, a robust report could help restore confidence across the board, especially for companies that have been hit hard by regulatory pressures, like ASML. But, if TSM falls short, it could signal further trouble for the chip industry, and we might see another round of declines. Let’s hope TSM can lead the way out of this rough patch and give the sector a much-needed boost.
🆕 Intel ($INTC) - Fresh Woes Over Cybersecurity Concerns 🖥️🔒
🚨📰🗞️Breaking news! 🇨🇳🇺🇸 The China Cyberspace Security Association has just called for a systematic examination of cybersecurity risks associated with Intel products. Following this announcement, Intel (INTC) dropped by 2% in pre-market trading. This move comes as a fresh challenge for Intel, which has been trying to regain its competitive edge in the semiconductor industry.
🧠 Commentary: This development raises serious concerns for Intel. With China being a crucial market for chipmakers, any scrutiny over cybersecurity could lead to tighter regulations or even restrictions on sales, much like the issues we’ve seen impacting ASML. Investors should watch how Intel navigates this situation, as further negative sentiment could push the stock lower, creating a ripple effect across the tech sector.
📊 SPY (SPY) - Holding Steady Amid Market Swirls 💼
The SPY ETF remains a beacon for traders, currently at $579.78. The chart shows a rising wedge pattern, often signalling possible pullbacks before any further rise. With the broader market facing mixed signals, SPY could see some hesitation at higher levels. 📈💪
• 📌 Mean Target Price: $600
• 💬 Capital Flow: Still seeing bullish accumulation, but caution on quick spikes!
💡 Technical Analysis Recap:
• BTC: Watch for a breakout above $69K or brace for a dip to $62K before the next big move. 🪙📊
• ASML: Volatility ahead. $700 support is critical. Keep those stop-losses tight! 💻⚠️
• TSM: If Q3 earnings impress, expect a ripple effect lifting the entire sector. 🌐📈
• INTC: Monitor closely for any further drops as the cybersecurity concerns unfold. 🖥️🔒
• SPY: Strong uptrend, but don’t get caught in a fakeout. Look for confirmation before piling in. 📈🚦
🔥 Analysts’ Verdicts Roundup:
• 🟢 Buy: 🟢 18 🟡 6 🔴 4 — across BTC, ASML, TSM, INTC, and SPY
• Key Takeaway: We are seeing a cautious yet optimistic market. Dip-buyers should look for confirmed bounces, while momentum traders can ride the waves but should keep stops tight.
Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC 🍀
此外，公司l發佈了2025年指導方針，將收入預期從之前預計的300-400億歐元下調至300-350億歐元。毛利率預期也從54%-56%下調至51%-53%。
管理層警告稱，除了AI，其他芯片的需求復甦也不及預期。
自7月份創下歷史新高以來，ASML的股價已經下跌了30%。