FOMC Rate Cut Tonight! Can S&P Hit 6000 This Friday?
After US election results, investors are now turning their attention to today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Powell will avoid answering election-related questions, striving to remain politically neutral. Typically, the Fed announces its rate decision in the early hours of Thursday, but this time it has been postponed to Friday to distance it from political events.
The market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but the key lies in the Fed’s policy guidance.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25 bps cut in November.
1. Will "Trump trade" lead to reflation?
Trump's victory signals faster economic growth and higher inflation.
Trump’s proposed tax cuts and deficit spending could lead to reflation. He has also considered replacing the Fed leadership and claims he has the right to comment on interest rates.
Long-term US Treasury yields have risen by nearly 20 basis points, the US stock market has hit record highs, and the dollar has strengthened.
2. What’s next for rate cuts?
Any signs of renewed inflation acceleration would mean the Fed might either slow down rate cuts or halt them altogether, and rates may not fall as low as previously forecast.
Analysts now expect fewer rate cuts:
JPMorgan: Expects 25 bps rate cuts this week and next month, but fewer rate cuts in total than previously anticipated before the election.
Bank of America: If the new president imposes significant tariffs, the Fed may pause rate cuts.
Nomura: Forecasts a 75 bps inflation rise by 2025, expecting only one rate cut next year, versus four previously predicted before the election.
What’s your view on Fed rate cuts?
If there’s no rate cut in December, will Treasury prices continue to fall?
Could the Fed’s decision push the S&P 500 to 6000 points this week?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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鲍威尔将避免回答与选举相关的问题，努力保持政治中立。通常情况下，美联储会在周四凌晨宣布利率决定，但这次是推迟到周五，以远离政治事件。
市场普遍预期一个降息25个基点，但关键在于美联储的政策引导。
根据CME FedWatch工具，11月份降息25个基点的可能性为97%。
特朗普提出的減稅和赤字支出可能會導致通貨再膨脹。他還考慮更換美聯儲領導層，並聲稱自己有權對利率發表評論。
美國長期國債收益率上漲近20個基點,美國股市屢創新高，美元走強。
prepare for anything... cause anything can happen...
The market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but the key lies in the Fed’s policy guidance.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25 bps cut in November.
@GoodLife99 @rL @HelenJanet @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @Universe宇宙 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa
What’s your view on Fed rate cuts?
If there’s no rate cut in December, will Treasury prices continue to fall?
Could the Fed’s decision push the S&P 500 to 6000 points this week?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
首先，降息雖有助於短期內支撐股市，但股市的長期表現不僅僅取決於貨幣政策，還與企業盈利、經濟增長以及全球宏觀環境密切相關。近期全球經濟的不確定性，包括供應鏈問題、地緣政治風險等，仍然可能對股市構成一定壓力。
另一方面，隨着年底的臨近，市場情緒往往更爲積極，投資者可能會受到“FOMO”（害怕錯過）效應的驅動，資金可能加速流入股市，這對標普500上漲起到積極作用。然而，市場也需要警惕情緒波動，避免過度樂觀。
從我的個人觀點來看，儘管降息爲股市帶來一定的支撐，但能否突破6000點，仍需密切關注經濟數據和市場情緒。如果接下來的經濟數據繼續向好，標普500觸及6000點的可能性會增大。
支持股市：较低的利率可能会导致股价上涨，因为投资者寻求比债券和储蓄账户更高的回报。
减轻债务负担：较低的利率降低了偿还现有债务的成本，为消费者和有未偿贷款的公司提供了救济。