【Wealth Weekly Trends】 How Does Wall Street View 2025 in the First Week of the New Year?
Hello, Tigers!
To welcome 2025, I used AI to compile insights from Bloomberg's 30 leading global institutions regarding their outlook for the year. Based on over 700 conference calls, Wall Street's consensus on 2025 market trends can be summarized as follows:
Key Insights for 2025
Strong Growth in the U.S. Economy and Assets
The U.S. economy is expected to perform exceptionally well in 2025, driven by renewed momentum from Trump-era policies and its relative attractiveness compared to other major markets. Many key markets may face challenges from Trump’s tariff policies. JPMorgan predicts 2025 will exemplify an “enhanced American exceptionalism.”Inflation Under Control but Falling Short of Targets
While inflation is generally under control, the likelihood of reaching target levels remains low due to Trump’s trade barriers and immigration policies.Moderate Stock Market Returns
Institutions caution investors not to expect stock returns exceeding 20% as seen last year. However, the AI-driven stock market boom may continue, with no clear signs of ending yet.Uncertainty in Bond Market Performance
Concerns over tight pricing and ongoing government overborrowing suggest that 2025 may not be a “bond year.”Diversified Allocation as the Key Strategy
Wall Street agrees that despite declining expected returns on core assets and uncertainties surrounding Trump policies, diversified asset allocation will be crucial for mitigating risks.
Institutional Predictions for 2025
Below is a compilation of viewpoints from 30 institutions, curated using AI tools for your reference:
Institution | 2025 Outlook |
|---|
Bank of America | Global economy in a "Goldilocks" state (GDP growth 3.25%, inflation 2.5%); monetary easing and high fiscal deficits; weaker USD (-2-3%); oil down (-20%); gold at $3,000/oz. |
BlackRock | Supports risk investments; overweight U.S. stocks due to stronger growth momentum and efficient use of strengths; AI themes are expanding. |
Global X | Manufacturing and SME investment recovery could drive economic growth, extending mid-cycle expansion; rate volatility may rise during protectionist policies. |
HSBC | Attractive cyclical progression and structural trends; improved transparency could boost capital flows and asset returns. |
JPMorgan | Strengthened U.S. exceptionalism; central banks remain dovish; Fed ends QT; optimistic about U.S. risk assets. |
Ned Davis Research | Deflation and low recession risk; Fed's easing cycle continues; strong earnings growth; bullish on U.S. equities relative to bonds and cash; favors cyclicals over defensives. |
Wells Fargo | U.S. to lead global recovery due to structural advantages; strong fiscal stimulus; vibrant tech sector; economic rebound and rate cuts to drive earnings and stock growth. |
UBS | Deregulation and business confidence support U.S. growth; tariffs create volatility in Europe and China; U.S. equities rise; bond yields fall slightly. |
Apollo Global Management | U.S. economy remains strong; no major slowdown expected in 2025; rates to stay relatively high despite monetary easing. |
BNY Mellon Wealth Mgmt. | Fed easing, strong U.S. growth, and pro-growth policies to moderate economic growth; lower short-term rates to boost borrowing and economic activity. |
BNP Paribas | Developed market central banks cutting rates to boost equities and fixed income; caution advised as rate cuts often coincide with recessions. |
Northern Trust Asset Mgmt. | U.S. soft landing predicted; growth slightly below 2024 levels; inflation declines to 2%; Fed to gradually cut rates. |
Principal Asset Mgmt. | Optimistic on equities, credit, and risk assets; moderate equity overweight; expects strong returns in 2025. |
Schroders | Inflation trending down; U.S. and European rates declining; expects soft landing and re-acceleration of growth by 2025. |
ABN AMRO | U.S. growth expected to remain strong despite policy uncertainty; drivers include higher productivity, strong consumer spending, and easing core inflation. |
AXA Investment Managers | Policy uncertainty under Trump poses market risks; macroeconomic fundamentals favor bonds and equities; stable growth and low rates to support markets. |
BNP Paribas (Alt. View) | U.S. to achieve a soft landing in early 2025 before stagnating in 2026 due to tariffs and immigration policies outweighing growth initiatives. |
Citigroup | Global economy (ex-U.S.) expected to grow at 2.7%; cautious risk stance in Q1; adheres to U.S. exceptionalism stance. |
Deutsche Bank | U.S. growth and inflation strong; Fed's terminal rate higher than expected; contrasts with weaker European growth; driven by deregulation and tax cuts. |
Invesco | U.S. assets typically perform well post-election; inflation and rate cuts to drive markets; cautious acceptance of risk after strong 2024 rally. |
Morgan Stanley | Modest global economic growth, easing inflation, and dovish monetary policies to encourage equity and risk asset investments. |
Pictet Asset Mgmt. | Global growth stabilizing at 2.8%; U.S. to lead due to its significance in global growth; equities likely to outperform bonds. |
Russell Investments | U.S. soft landing expected with 2% growth; trade policy uncertainty and tariffs to pressure Europe and Asia-Pacific. |
Tallbacken Capital | Economy transitioning to higher nominal GDP; strong U.S.-centered risk assets supported; long-term U.S. Treasuries less favorable; political risks loom. |
BCA Research | Classic soft landing (stocks up, bonds down) unlikely; Trump’s election increases bullish equity scenario; government bond yields to rise. |
Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt. | Global rate cuts anticipated; diverse macroeconomic outcomes post-election; optimistic about sustained economic growth after easing. |
JPMorgan Wealth Mgmt. | Mixed tailwinds (expansion, lower rates, earnings growth) and headwinds (valuation pressures, macroeconomic volatility); balanced investment approach advised. |
PIMCO | U.S. economic strength diminishing; inflationary pressures easing; economy aligning more with global counterparts. |
Société Générale | New global themes: U.S. policies, China reflation, yen carry trade unwinding, and end of Germany’s debt brake rule; three are "risk-on." |
Barclays Private Bank | Future returns may slow; focus on quality companies with growth potential during economic slowdowns. |
Exclusive Insight from Tiger Wealth
In addition to institutional views, the Tiger Wealth team has shared an exclusive forecast on global asset classes in 2025. Check out the article below if you're interested:
【Weekly Wealth Trends】Post-Christmas: Which Sectors Could Lead the Market?
This Week’s Allocation Focus
Technology Sector
Investment Options | Ticker |
|---|---|
Global X Robotics & AI ETF | BOTZ |
North America Software ETF | IGV |
Semiconductor Index ETF | SMH |
Nasdaq-100 ETF | QQQ |
S&P 500 ETF | SPY |
Defensive Sector
Investment Options | Ticker |
|---|---|
SPDR Gold ETF | GLD |
Utilities Index ETF | XLU |
Healthcare ETF | XLV |
Real Estate Trust Index ETF | VNQ |
Financials ETF | XLF |
Risk Disclaimer:
The mentioned tradeable assets are based on data-driven analysis and do not constitute investment advice.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Wall Street recommends diversified asset allocation to manage risks from trade policies and inflation. Some institutions foresee a U.S. soft landing, while others warn about the impact of tariffs and global uncertainties. Interest rates are expected to decline in some regions.
Tiger Wealth highlights technology sectors like AI, robotics, and semiconductors for investment, alongside defensive sectors like gold and healthcare for diversification. A balanced investment approach is advised to navigate 2025's economic challenges.
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🌟🌟🌟2025 is going to be an exciting year with a new US President, Donald Trump in power. He is pro US business as he wants to make America Great Again (MAGA). He plans to reduce corporate taxes and relax regulations. He is also pro cryptocurrencies.
Therefore I believe that Bitcoin will be on an upward trend and Crypto stocks will also perform well too.
I also believe that financial stocks will also do well. $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ is a good ETF to invest in.
Another sector that will do well is AI with the Magnificent 7 companies spending big on AI. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ which represents the best semiconductor companies will also do well too.
@Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars
Institutions such as Bank of America, BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo predict:
- *U.S. economic growth*: Ranging from 2.7% to 3.25%
- *Inflation*: Generally under control, but may not reach target levels
- *Stock market performance*: Moderate returns, with some institutions favoring U.S. stocks
- *Bond market performance*: Uncertainty and potential volatility due to tight pricing and government overborrowing
Please note that these predictions are based on the consensus of 30 leading global institutions and are subject to change as market conditions evolve.
1. *Strong U.S. Economy*: Expected to perform exceptionally well, driven by Trump-era policies and relative attractiveness.
2. *Inflation Under Control*: But may fall short of targets due to trade barriers and immigration policies.
3. *Moderate Stock Market Returns*: Institutions caution against expecting returns above 20%.
4. *Uncertainty in Bond Market*: Concerns over tight pricing and government overborrowing.
5. *Diversified Allocation*: Crucial for mitigating risks amidst declining expected returns and policy uncertainties.
首先，宏观经济方面，市场普遍认为美国经济将延续缓慢复苏的节奏，但各大机构对增长的预期出现分化。部分乐观派认为，随着供应链逐步恢复，企业资本支出将成为拉动经济的重要动力；而悲观者则担心消费疲软和高利率持续抑制增长。2024年底的就业数据将成为关键指引，下周即将公布的12月非农数据尤为重要，如果强于预期，可能会增强市场对经济软着陆的信心。
其次，利率政策仍是悬在市场头上的“达摩克利斯之剑”。尽管美联储已经释放出2025年上半年暂不加息的信号，但投资者关注的焦点是降息何时启动。如果通胀继续下降，不排除下半年美联储开启降息的可能，这将对股市形成有力支撑。
最后，科技股依旧是市场的“风向标”。2024年大涨后，投资者对今年的科技股持更加审慎态度，尤其是估值偏高的龙头企业。随着CES 2025的召开，英伟达、苹果等领军企业的动向将成为新年行情的重要催化剂。
总体来看，华尔街对2025年的态度是“谨慎中透着乐观”。短期波动难免，但长线投资机会依旧值得挖掘。
在特朗普時代政策的新動力及其與其他主要市場相比的相對吸引力的推動下，美國經濟預計將在2025年表現異常出色。許多關鍵市場可能面臨特朗普關稅政策的挑戰。摩根大通預測，2025年將體現“增強的美國例外論”。
通脹得到控制但未達到目標
雖然通脹總體上得到控制，但由於特朗普的貿易壁壘和移民政策，達到目標水平的可能性仍然很低。
股市回報適中
機構警告投資者，不要像去年那樣期望股票回報率超過20%。然而，人工智能驅動的股市繁榮可能會持續，目前還沒有明顯的結束跡象。
債券市場表現的不確定性
對定價緊張和政府持續過度借貸的擔憂表明，2025年可能不會是“債券年”。
多元化配置爲關鍵策略
華爾街一致認爲，儘管核心資產預期回報下降，特朗普政策存在不確定性，但多元化資產配置對於緩解風險至關重要。