šWhat the Tigers Say | Which Stock Is 2025ās Dark Horse?
As AI continues to advance, analysts predict that SaaS companies will be among the biggest winners in 2025, benefiting from greater efficiency and performance gains. The fusion of AI with different industries is shaping up to be a major trend, with sectors like data/software, healthcare, community platforms, education, and voice technology poised for growth.
Which company do you think has the potential to be 2025ās ultimate dark horse? Which stock would you bet on?
šSpecial Notes: Whoever showed up on theā What the Tigers Sayā column will receive 100 Tiger Coins and an exclusive interview invitation to honor your contribution.
Click titles to read the full analysis:
1. @hawshy: $Snowflake(SNOW)$
Key Points:
In my opinion is a significantly undervalued AI stock. While PLTR trades at exorbitant multiples, āļø, with comparable growth and margins, is priced far lower. I believe the market overlooks āļø's crucial role in AI: providing seamless data liquidity.
Its platform enables efficient data storage, processing, and sharingāessential for AI model training.
Projected 30% revenue growth and expanding margins further solidify āļø's potential.
I expect its valuation to catch up as the market recognizes āļø not just as a data warehouse, but as a core AI enabler. This presents a compelling investment opportunity.
2. @Shyon: Why Invest in AppLovin?
Key Points:
$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong revenue growth, expanding profit margins, and strategic shift toward high-margin ad tech.
The company's dominance in mobile advertising, particularly with its AI-powered AXON platform, allows it to capture both gaming and non-gaming advertisers, unlocking new revenue streams. Its focus on automation and operational efficiency further enhances scalability, driving EBITDA growth and strong free cash flow generation.
With its proven ability to create incremental consumer demand and an expanding market reach, AppLovin is well-positioned for sustained long-term growth.
3. @orsiri: The Real Issue: Can Palantir Justify Its Valuation?
Key Points:
Palantirās dependence on government contracts has provided a steady revenue stream, but it also poses risksābudget cuts, policy shifts, and geopolitical changes can impact future deals. The real battleground is the commercial sector, where $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ is expanding but faces stiff competition from established enterprise software giants such as $Snowflake(SNOW)$, $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$, and other cloud-based analytics providers.
The company has seen rapid commercial growth, with its customer base increasing by 15% quarter over quarter in 2024āthe fastest pace of acquisitions to date. This expansion has driven a 31% surge in Q4 commercial revenue. However, government contracts remain crucial, accounting for 55% of Palantirās total revenue. In Q4, government revenue surged by 40% year over year, outpacing commercial growth and reaffirming its importance to Palantirās business model.
Despite this impressive growth, Palantirās valuation remains stretched. The stock trades at an eye-watering 100 times sales and 618 times trailing earningsāmultiples that require near-perfect execution to justify over the long term. Even under an optimistic scenario where revenue grows at 40% annually for five years, profit margins expand from 16% to 30%, and share count increases by 3% per year, Palantirās 2029 earnings per share (EPS) would be $1.58. At current prices, that still translates to a lofty 74 times forward earningsāa valuation that leaves little margin for error.
Potential Risks Beyond Government Contracts
While government contract dependency is a significant concern, other risks loom large. Palantir's reliance on key personnelāparticularly visionary leadershipācould be a vulnerability if any major departures occur. Additionally, in an era of increasing regulatory scrutiny, data privacy and security concerns could pose challenges, especially as Palantir expands into more commercial and consumer-facing markets.
4. @Bobby Banana:
Key Points:
$Tempus AI(TEM)$ should have invested this earlier But never too late if you see a potential stock like $Tempus AI(TEM)$ ! I believe this will keep going up this year as AI is driving the tech world!
5. @SmoothTW:
Key Points:
š $Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$ x Anduril: A Game-Changing Defense Partnership & a Rare Retail Opportunity!
Archer Aviation just announced a major strategic partnership with Anduril Industries to develop hybrid VTOL military aircraft. This is hugeāAnduril is a cutting-edge defense tech company backed by Peter Thiel, but itās still private. This deal gives retail investors rare early exposure to Andurilās growth before a potential IPO.
š Why this is BULLISH:
ā¢ Defense $$$ Flowing In ā U.S. DoD programs could be a massive revenue driver.
ā¢ $430M Fresh Capital ā Backed by Stellantis, United Airlines, and Abu Dhabiās 2PointZero.
ā¢ Archer Defense Launched ā Led by a Lockheed/Sikorsky veteran to push military adoption.
ā¢ Scalability & Cost Advantage ā Anduril brings AI & mission systems, Archer provides VTOL expertise.
This is a catalyst momentāACHR isnāt just an eVTOL play anymore. Itās now a dual-use aerospace/defense tech company with a clear runway for both commercial and military expansion.
Retail missed early Anduril. This is the closest thing to a pre-IPO entry before defense contracts scale.
Are you paying attention? š
6. @Sherniceč»å¬£ 2000: HIMS- The AI-Powered Healthcare Stock Redefining the Industry
Key Points:
$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ is not just another name in the telehealth space; it's a beacon of innovation and growth, boasting the fastest revenue growth in its sector. With a revenue surge to $401.6 million in Q3, up 77% year-over-year, Hims is on a trajectory that could see its value triple, if not more. This growth is underpinned by a unique business model:
Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Focus targeting Millennials & Gen Z.
Specialized Services in telemedicine, weight loss, hair loss, skincare, sexual health, and mental health.
One-Stop Healthcare solution with its online pharmacy, handling consultation to prescription fulfillment.
Personalized Treatment using AI to tailor prescriptions, enhancing patient adherence and outcomes.
Financial Strength and AI-Driven Efficiency
Hims showcases an impressive financial profile:
Gross Margin of 81.1%, outstripping competitors.
Adjusted EBITDA soared to $51.1 million, with a profit margin of 13%.
Free Cash Flow of $149M in the last 12 months, against capital expenditures of $85.86M.
Debt-Free Balance Sheet with $5.254B in cash.
Return on Equity (ROE) at 26.35%, well above industry norms.
The AI Advantage and Market Expansion
Hims leverages AI not just for personalized treatments but also for operational efficiency, which has led to a 175% YoY growth in personalized healthcare subscription users. This focus on personalization creates a strong competitive moat, offering treatments that are tailored to individual needs, thus fostering higher user retention and satisfaction.
Growth Potential and Risks
The telehealth sector in the United States is projected to expand dramatically, with market research indicating a growth to a $460 billion industry by 2033, excluding weight loss services. If Hims & Hers captures just 10% of this burgeoning market, it would translate to $46 billion in annual revenues.
Using a conservative sales multiple of 2x, which is considered low in the tech and health sectors for high-growth companies, this would value Hims & Hers at a staggering $92 billion market cap which translates to price target $448. Compare this to its current market capitalization of approximately $12.9 billion, current share price $59.18 and the potential for exponential growth becomes clear.
However, challenges include:
Potential GLP-1 Supply Recovery.
Regulatory Shifts if the current leniency changes.
Market Volatility due to reliance on drug supply and policy.
Conclusion
Hims & Hers Health Inc. stands at a pivotal moment, with the potential to redefine healthcare delivery through AI and personalized medicine. Under a supportive regulatory environment, and with its financial robustness and innovative approach, Hims could indeed see exponential growth, navigating through competition and market challenges to emerge as a dominant player in the telehealth landscape.
7. @Sherniceč»å¬£ 2000: Upstart - AI-Powered Lending on the Rise!
Key Points:
$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ is an AI-driven lending marketplace that has served over 3 million customers and partnered with more than 100 banks. By leveraging AI models and cloud-based applications, Upstart helps banks offer more competitive loan products while improving approval efficiency.
Q4 2024 Earnings Highlights:
Revenue: $219M (+56% YoY)
Contribution Profit:*l $122M (61% margin)
Adjusted EBITDA: $38.8M (a huge turnaround from a $0.6M loss last year)
Net Loss:$2.8M (a significant improvement from a $42.4M loss last year)
In Q4 2024, Upstart demonstrated strong growth, with revenue and loan origination volume increasing by 56% and 68%YoY, respectively. The contribution margin remained steady at 61%, and the average loan size rose from $8,400 to $8,580. Net interest income turned positive at $20M, while default rates declined.
AI Innovation: Model 19
Upstart recently launched Model 19, which incorporates Payment Transaction Model (PTM) technology to significantly improve loan approval accuracy. This allows more qualified borrowers to access credit while keeping default risks in check.
Diversification & Strong Financial Backing
The companyās Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) and small loan businesses have made significant progress, showcasing the success of its diversification strategy. Upstart has also secured $1.3B in capital commitments and a $150M personal loan funding facility, signaling increased confidence from its partners.
Looking Ahead to 2025
Upstartās management has set ambitious financial targets for 2025:
Total revenue:$1B (with $920M from fees)
Adjusted EBITDA margin: 18%
GAAP profitability by H2 2025
This outlook suggests that Upstart is not only focusing on rapid growth but also improving profitability and financial stabilityājustifying its recent stock surge.
As AI continues to reshape the financial industry, Upstartās continuous innovation in credit assessment models strengthens its leadership in fintech. With ongoing investments in AI-driven lending and the accelerating digital transformation of financial services, Upstart is building a solid competitive moat for future growth.
Questions for you:
Which company do you think has the potential to be 2025ās ultimate dark horse?
Which stock would you bet on?
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ā°Duration
26 Feb (24pm EDT)
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Good read!