Dead Cat Bounce vs. True Bottom: Where Are We Now?
After a series of declines, the market has become increasingly cautious about any rebound. Most people believe this is merely a dead cat bounce in a bear market, with further drops likely to come.
We may all wonder: what stage are we? Are we currently in “fear“ stage?
Analysts warn that despite that the fear and greed index indicate the sentiment is low, we haven’t seen the capitulation yet. That means the real pain is still ahead.
However, some argue that with Trump softening his stance on tariffs, the impact of tariffs on the market may lessen going forward. If a recession can be avoided, the market's downside potential might be limited.
CDN media
Investors are divided on where we are in the current cycle.
What’s your take?
Is this a dead cat bounce or have we already hit the bottom?
Where are we now?
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After a series of declines, the market has become increasingly cautious about any rebound. Most people believe this is merely a dead cat bounce in a bear market, with further drops likely to come.
We may all wonder: what stage are we? Are we currently in “fear“ stage?
Analysts warn that despite that the fear and greed index indicate the sentiment is low, we haven’t seen the capitulation yet. That means the real pain is still ahead.
Investors are divided on where we are in the current cycle.
What’s your take?
Is this a dead cat bounce or have we already hit the bottom?
Where are we now?
leave your comments to win tiger coins~
最近特朗普口风明显软了，不再咄咄逼人地打关税牌，对市场来说无疑是个利好信号。别小看这种“情绪变化”，它很可能是后续资金重新评估风险资产的重要转折点。尤其是一些出口导向型企业，定价压力一旦缓解，盈利预期就会开始修复。
但我们是不是已经见底？我认为还言之过早。**这波反弹更多像是技术性修复+政策预期驱动，典型的“半信半疑”式反弹。**底部从来不是一根阳线确认的，而是靠时间反复打磨出来的。
不过可以肯定的是：**下行空间确实在缩小。**只要美国不进入实质性衰退、失业率不飙升，市场在当前位置附近形成“中期支撑”的可能性是存在的。
所以我现在的策略是：不追高，但逐步建仓。尤其关注那些基本面稳健、被情绪错杀的板块，比如高股息能源、医疗和部分科技股。不是底部豪赌，是有节奏的布局。
我们现在不在终点，但也不在悬崖边上。是时候保持清醒，也该慢慢出手了。
That said, I’m not fully convinced this is just a dead cat bounce. If Trump’s softer stance on tariffs holds and a recession is avoided, the downside could be limited. In that scenario, the worst may already be behind us, and the market might gradually recover as confidence returns.
Investors are divided because there’s a real tug-of-war between weak sentiment and improving fundamentals. Personally, I’m cautiously optimistic but staying flexible. It’s not a confirmed bottom yet, but I’m watching closely for signs of stability and leadership.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion
我們可能都在想：我們處於什麼階段？我們目前處於“恐懼”階段嗎？
分析師警告說，儘管恐懼和貪婪指數表明情緒較低，但我們尚未看到投降。這意味着真正的痛苦還在前面。
Not out of the woods yet.
Comment for coins @JiaDeName