To The Moon

On June 16, leading stablecoin issuer $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ surged 13.10%, briefly touching an intraday high of $165.60. From its IPO price of $31, the latest stock price represents a staggering 387.3% increase.

It’s worth highlighting that Circle’s market cap has now exceeded $33.6 billion. As the issuer of USDC, the world’s second-largest crypto stablecoin, Circle's market cap is already more than half of USDC’s current circulating value of $61.6 billion.

1. iPhone Moment Incoming? Is the Crypto Bull Market Starting on Wall Street?

Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire responded to a crypto investor’s post last weekend, saying that stablecoins have not yet reached their “iPhone moment.” He explained that this moment will arrive when global developers fully realize the power and opportunity of a programmable digital dollar, just as they once did with the potential of smartphones. But that moment is coming soon.

2. GENIUS Act Vote on Tuesday – Has the Rally Already Priced It In?

A potential hidden driver behind Circle’s recent surge is the GENIUS Act, which would establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. After a procedural vote last week, the U.S. Senate is set to vote on the bill as early as this Tuesday.

The latest version of the bill mandates that all U.S. dollar stablecoins be fully backed by dollars or equivalent liquid assets. Issuers with more than $50 billion in circulation would also face mandatory annual audits.

Even if passed in the Senate, the bill must still go through the House of Representatives for review and approval. Any changes made by the House would send it back to the Senate for confirmation. In short, the full legislative process could still take weeks or even months.

3. Overvalued Hype or Strong Fundamentals? What’s Driving Circle’s Massive Gains?

1. Solid Business Model
Circle generated around $1.7 billion in revenue in 2024, with a whopping 99% of that coming from interest earned on USDC reserves.

When users exchange dollars for USDC, the funds are invested in low-risk assets like short-term U.S. Treasuries and cash, earning stable returns. This “stablecoin spread model” offers reliable cash flow with minimal volatility—especially valuable in today’s high-rate environment.

2. Regulatory Transparency

Circle's transparency is another key driver. As the first publicly listed stablecoin issuer, Circle’s IPO filings clearly disclosed its reserve structure, including its holdings in U.S. Treasuries, cash balances, and audit arrangements. This level of clarity has set a regulatory benchmark for how “on-chain dollars” can be operated in compliance, raising the bar for competitors.

4. Crypto Stocks Go Wild – Circle Isn’t Alone

Several other crypto-related U.S. stocks also saw extreme volatility recently:

• $SRM Entertainment, Inc.(SRM)$ jumped more than 5x on June 16 alone, with its market cap skyrocketing from tens of millions to around $158 million. The surge came after the company announced a $100 million investment and its new TRON token treasury strategy, positioning itself as a “TRON-version MicroStrategy.”

• $SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ rebounded 45.6% on June 16 after a rollercoaster ride. The company had previously spent $463 million to purchase 176,271 ETH, becoming the largest public Ethereum holder. It funded this strategy by issuing new shares, sending the stock price soaring to $35—only to crash over 70% between June 12–13.

Will You Sell When the Crowd Cheers Or Bet on the Next Crypto Pivot?

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