To The Moon

$Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ $Silver - main 2512(SImain)$ 📅 22Sep25 🇳🇿  I’m genuinely excited by how clearly gold is signalling the structural shifts in markets; this isn’t just another cycle, it’s the tell on fiscal dominance, currency debasement, and the illusion of monetary stability.

📊 CTA Commodity Flows

⚡ Metals lead: $SI +2.36% and $GC +1.46%, both at strong 1M/3M percentile ranks

🌾 Grains firm: $ZW and $C sitting at 1M/3M highs, signalling inflows

🛢️ Energy mixed: $BRENT modestly positive, nat gas still red and pressured

☕ Softs weak: sugar, cocoa, coffee remain negative across horizons

🧭 Thesis

I’m positioning in $IAU because the gold market is the clearest signal that fiscal dominance is now trapping the Fed. The dollar is bleeding credibility, and assets priced in it are advancing not from a growth boom but from debasement. I’m convinced gold and silver are set to run harder than the AI narrative because they hedge structural deficit addiction, devaluation, and trade realignment outside the US dollar.

💡 I’m not hedging with $IAU, I’m betting it will define this cycle in the same way tech defined the last.

🌐 Policy frame

Rolling short-term Treasuries every few months means the Fed can’t hike without exploding interest costs. Fiscal dominance drives stealth QE, rate cuts, and a weaker dollar. This is not a commodity supercycle; it’s a monetary illusion of wealth. Broad commodities, ex-precious metals, still trade near 2019 levels. Inflation isn’t from demand; it’s from currency dilution. Unless deficits shrink without spiking joblessness, stagflation risk is real. Colour me sceptical that Washington can pull it off cleanly.

🪙 Positioning conviction

Bitcoin is speculative leverage, not money.

Equities are inflationary assets, supported by policy largesse and a falling dollar.

Gold is the ultimate tell on fiscal malfeasance, dedollarisation, and settlement shifting away from Treasuries and oil.

📈 Buffett Indicator: Equities at Extremes

Warren Buffett Indicator hits 220% for the first time in history 🚨🚨 The stock market topped at 190% during the Dot Com Bubble 🤯👀

Warren Buffett’s favourite valuation tool sitting at 220% of GDP means equities are priced for perfection, inflated by fiscal dominance and liquidity waves. Every word holds true as rationale to hold gold, silver, and miners trend long; ironically, the chronic underperformance of mining companies is why they have been left for dead by many active traders, let alone passive investors. That is likely why I’m most excited about this sector.

1. Foreign central banks will not stop converting USD for gold as long as the US is in fiscal dominance. Debasement of the dollar is bullish gold.

2. Gold is at all-time highs nominally, but not relative to USD; it has room to move much higher relative to history.

3. Central bankers need physical gold, not gold equities, to circumvent USD; gold and silver stocks will still appreciate nominally as underlying prices rise.

4. Gold and silver chasers point to the $35 to $850 gold run during the 1970s when stagflation hit the US in an inflationary wave.

5. Investor expectations are extremely low for miners, which sets up my mantra: Outliers Revert With Velocity.

🛢️ Energy and demand

I’ve been bearish crude since $85, and I still see a lower band of 60 to 40 on falling global demand. That makes gold and silver the macro long: rising global demand for durable monetary assets, not barrels.

📈 Flows and trades

I’m long $IAU and $SLV trend structures, adding on pullbacks to 21 EMA and Keltner mids. I’m neutral to slightly long equities through quality and sell index premium when VRP is high. I’m avoiding energy except tactical spikes. DXY and 2-year Treasuries remain my regime checkpoints.

🔑 $IAU Fibonacci Action Levels (Heatmap View)

🟢 = bullish continuation | 🔴 = bearish risk

• Swing low: $68.27

• Swing high: $71.14

🟢 Bullish retracements:

• $69.93 (50% Fib)

• $70.22 (61.8% Fib)

• $70.62 (78.6% Fib)

🟢 Bullish extension target:

• $72.65 (161.8% Fib)

🔴 Bearish support zones:

• $69.29 (38.2% Fib + EMA cluster)

• $68.57–$68.27 (major support base at 100%)

🔴 Invalidation:

• Break below $68.27 shifts risk toward $67.87 and $66.97

⚖️ Bias: 🟢 bullish above $69.29, with dip entries attractive around $69.30–$69.50

📌 $IAU Trading Plan

🎯 Entry zone: $69.30–$69.50 on dips

🛡️ Stop-loss: below $68.27 to protect against structure breakdown

🚀 Target 1: $70.22–$70.62 (Fib 61.8%/78.6% confluence)

🌟 Target 2: $72.65 (Fib 161.8% extension)

🚨 What would flip me

A credible deficit reduction path that doesn’t crush employment, alongside sustained positive real yields and reserve managers rotating back into bills. Short of that, gold remains core.

🏁 Conclusion

I’m all-in on the conviction that this isn’t inflation in the classical sense; it’s the dollar’s debasement. AI may sell the future, but gold is telling the truth about the present. If 🇨🇳 China’s gold imports at $22,000 per ounce balance their trade surplus, the message is clear: the dollar is wildly overvalued against real money.

🔥 I’m putting my capital where my conviction is: gold is the truth-teller in a world built on illusions.

I’m positioned in $IAU because this is the cleanest hedge against the illusion. These are not predictions; they’re probability-weighted frameworks.

👉❓When fiscal dominance collides with debasement, which asset tells the truth better: gold, equities, or Bitcoin?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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