To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $GRANITESHARES 2X LONG AMD DAILY ETF(AMDL)$ $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ 

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m convinced that AMD has entered a rare structural inflection point, one that only emerges once every 17-25 years in high-tech. The upcoming earnings on 04Nov25 carry not just a beat/miss event risk but represent a tipping moment for the AI infrastructure era. At a current share price of US$252.92 with implied move ±13% (≈ US$220–US$286), the options market is telegraphing a major swing. IV at ~64% vs HV ~60% confirms elevated expectations. Call flow at ~1.57 : 1 and a put/call ratio of ~0.64 signal bullish bias. Technicals suggest a megaphone breakout structure extending toward a $300 plus zone. Institutional sentiment is warming, and the macro/AI cycle tailwinds are lining up. Execution risk remains; one miss could trigger a brutal IV crush, but I believe the upside asymmetry is compelling enough to justify a “Don’t track, just buy” posture.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown

Q1 2025 revenue: US$7.438 b (up 36 % YoY) with gross margin at 50 % (vs 47 % YoY). Net income: US$709 m (up 476 % YoY).

Q2 2025 revenue: US$7.7 b (up ~32 % YoY) and adjusted EPS US$0.48. Note: US$800 m inventory/charge related to MI308 export-controls weighed margins; non-GAAP gross margin ≈ 54 %.

Data-centre segment strength: EPYC and Ryzen share gains; ramp of Instinct MI350 series flagged as growth driver.

Forward guidance: Q3 revenue projected ~US$8.7 b.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk

Despite the growth tilt, AMD faces significant headwinds:

Export controls (MI308 chip write-off) demonstrate regulatory vulnerability.

Margins under pressure due to inventory/charge (US$800 m) and competitive intensity from NVDA and AVGO.

Valuation already rich among semiconductor peers; perfection is priced in.

Analyst caution persists (Truist reiterating Hold), highlighting “buy the story, swim into hype” risk.

Execution must deliver not only top-line growth but margin expansion and ecosystem wins for the thesis to hold.

🧠 Analyst & Institutional Sentiment

Call flow ~1.57 : 1 favouring calls. Put/call ~0.64, bullish skew. Implied move ±13 % around US$252.92.

Someone’s buying almost a million dollars’ worth of 100% OTM $AMD calls expiring September 2026 ($450 strike). That single whale position totaled US$916,379 in premium at US$8.99 average, signaling conviction in AMD’s long-term upside trajectory. Unusual Whales data shows net call premium exceeding US$51M that day, confirming sustained institutional accumulation into the earnings window.

Implied volatility ~64 % vs historical ~60 %, market braced for action.

Analysts mixed-positive: Truist projects US$0.49 EPS and US$7.41 b revenue but remains cautious; consensus sees raised guidance as key.

Institutional accumulation rising; hedge-fund positioning shows rotations from SOXX into SMH and AI-heavy semis.

Peer comparison: AMD closing the AI gap with NVDA while retaining CPU share leadership.

📉📈 Technical Setup

Monthly chart: Long-term ascending megaphone hitting breakout zone at ~$250 and projecting toward $300–$316.

4H chart: RSI mid-range (~50) with Bollinger/Keltner band contraction signalling impending volatility expansion.

30 min chart: Price action piercing upper Keltner band, momentum surge in progress.

Key support/resistance: US$220 and US$286 (implied-move bounds).

Targets: Base US$286; stretch US$303–US$316 (per probability heat-map).

Confirmations: Rising volume on breakout, positive MACD cross, 21-EMA above 55-EMA, institutional call sweeps > $300.

🌍 Macro & Peer Context

Macro tailwinds: U.S. AI infrastructure spend (US$70 b initiative), easing export restrictions, and record data-centre build-outs.

Peers: Nvidia (NVDA) commands premium valuation and margins; Broadcom (AVGO) is a steady cash machine; AMD sits in the growth sweet-spot with AI acceleration just ramping.

ETF flows: Semiconductor (SMH) and AI-hardware ETFs seeing rotations into AMD, a mid-cycle beta favourite.

Historical context: AMD rose ~61× from 2015–2021 on chiplet innovation; the same playbook now targets a market orders of magnitude larger.

AMD’s 6% surge followed Supermicro’s announcement that it will integrate new AMD Instinct chips across its next-generation data-centre platforms. Supermicro highlighted extreme system density, noting a single 48U rack can host up to 160 servers and 16 Ethernet switches. This collaboration directly expands AMD’s footprint in hyperscale computing and challenges Nvidia’s long-held GPU dominance.

Supermicro’s rapid ramp-up signals a structural shift in data-centre preferences. With AMD providing competitive performance per watt and strong memory bandwidth, server manufacturers are diversifying beyond Nvidia’s architecture. The partnership accelerates AMD’s AI deployment timeline and strengthens its presence in the trillion-dollar inference and training market.

While Nvidia remains the benchmark for GPU leadership, Supermicro’s adoption of AMD silicon suggests that the race is tightening. The question isn’t whether AMD can outrun Nvidia overnight; it’s whether sustained design wins and power-efficiency advantages can steadily erode Nvidia’s share over the next two earnings cycles. That’s why AMD’s momentum here isn’t speculative; it’s architectural.

📊 Valuation & Capital Health

Forward P/E highest among top-5 semis, signalling growth ambition and risk.

Balance sheet solid: ample cash, manageable debt, and heavy R&D reinvestment across data-centre and FPGA lines.

EV/EBITDA and FCF yield competitive vs sector; PEG ratio implies undervalued growth if AI execution continues.

Re-rating potential remains if margin expansion sustains above 50 % into FY26.

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan

I am firmly Buy on AMD. Entry zone: US$240–US$255 (current US$252.92). Stop-loss below US$220 (critical support aligns with the implied-move floor).

🟢 Bull Case ($286 → $303 → $316) AI and Data Center beat with bullish guidance on Instinct MI accelerators. Upside stretch to $316 possible if quantum chip headlines and margins surprise.

🔴 Bear Case ($220 → $202) EPS miss (< $1.00) or weak AI guidance. IV crush and profit-taking could pressure high-multiple names toward $220 support.

⚖️ Base Case (~$252 – $260) Inline results mean “good but priced-in.” IV crush erodes premium value post-earnings.

Directional ideas:

Leverage exposure: AMDL (2×) for short-term momentum capture; AMDU (1.5×) for moderate directional exposure and smoother decay profile.

Options setups: Jan 2026 $270/$300 call spread, defined risk, levered upside.

Volatility play: Iron Condor ($220/$285 wings) to fade pre-earnings IV premium.

Momentum re-entry: > US$260 with volume confirmation and institutional follow-through.

Catalysts: Earnings 04Nov25, MI350/MI400 launch cycle, AI server design wins, macroeasing on export controls. If execution falters, expect IV crush and possible retest to US$220.

🏁 Conclusion

I’m convinced AMD isn’t just riding the AI wave, it’s building the surfboard. This isn’t a quarterly story; it’s a secular re-rating in motion. The market may be pricing perfection, but perfection is the starting line now. Execution turns that ceiling into a platform. AMD is transitioning from chip designer to ecosystem architect. Execution beats hype. That’s why I’m here.

📌 Key Takeaways

Revenue Q2 2025: US$7.7 b (+32 % YoY) despite US$800 m inventory charge.

Options implied move ±13 % → US$220–US$286 window at US$252.92.

IV ~64 % vs HV ~60 %, elevated expectations confirmed.

Call flow ~1.57 : 1; put/call ~0.64, bullish skew pre-earnings.

Technical breakout structure: monthly megaphone target US$286 (base), US$316 (stretch).

Trading ideas: AMDL (2×) for high-conviction momentum; AMDU (1.5×) for smoothed directional exposure.

Macro tailwind: AI infrastructure investment surge and data-centre expansion.

Valuation premium across top semis justified by AI acceleration potential.

📈 Breakout confirmation above US$260 aligns with rising volume, tightening Bollinger spread, and bullish MACD crossover, signalling the ignition phase of AMD’s next AI expansion wave.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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