To The Moon

On Monday, the crude oil market fluctuated obviously, and the oil price jumped sharply. Therefore, many oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia collectively announced voluntary production reduction until the end of the year. Whether crude oil enters a new trend or not has important reference value for the prospect of the whole market.

In fact, before the weekend news came out, crude oil had rebounded for two consecutive trading days. After the jump, up to now, the price range center since the end of last year is still suppressing the rebound.

In other words, although the rebound is very strong and fierce, it still belongs to the standard break-anti-pumping market. Whether it can get out of the range or even return to the high level in November last year will determine the medium-term trend of crude oil.

Fundamentally speaking, the oil price fluctuations we assumed before were all based on the premise that the supply side of the supply-demand relationship was relatively stable.

Now, in the state of limited changes on the demand side, it is obvious that holding a group to reduce production has brought obvious changes to the supply side. However, when the price comes out from 65-80 +, it can be guessed that the good news has been included in the market. I hope to break through the high point in the follow-up, and the greater driving force will come from the recovery of the market (the upward trend of the demand side).

From the technical trend, after adding a rebound, it re-entered the relatively balanced level of long and short. There are big variables in one-leg trading, and the short-term trading opportunities of oil-copper will be more stable. As mentioned in the previous live broadcast, after the resistance of crude oil reverse pumping, multi-copper empty oil is an option that can be considered.

The main logic lies in the synchronization of the two histories and the greater news and fundamental opportunities of copper itself, especially after the favorable landing of crude oil. From the trading of crude oil itself, the main pressure will appear around 93, which is also the accumulation of bears and the potential trading price. 83 up and down, there is a short-term seesaw demand, and intraday or short-term traders can make some simple attempts.

To sum up, it is advisable to regard oil price as a counter-pumping market for the time being, and it is not too late to make adjustments if it can be reversed upward in the follow-up.Judging from the uncertainty of the overall financial market, it is still more inclined that the oil price cannot rise to a higher position. After all, the chain of oil prices-inflation-rate hike-financial market stability itself does not support high oil prices.

Attached is the data of production-reducing countries: According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia will implement a voluntary production reduction plan of 500,000 barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia will voluntarily reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023. Iraq's oil minister said that from May, Iraq's oil production will be cut by 211,000 barrels per day. Kuwait will voluntarily cut its oil production by 128,000 barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. The UAE oil minister said that it will voluntarily reduce oil production by 144,000 barrels per day from May to the end of 2023. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy said that Kazakhstan will contribute 78,000 barrels per day to OPEC + production reduction. Algeria will cut its oil production by 48,000 barrels per day from May to the end of 2023. Oman's Ministry of Energy and Mines said it would voluntarily reduce oil production by 40,000 barrels per day from May until the end of 2023.

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