To The Moon

Last Wednesday, the CPI data was released, which was better than expected.

I won't repeat the specific data details. Anyway, the current market is jubilant, and most commodities and stock indexes are rising, which means that the Federal Reserve will continue to print money to promote the economy and overcome the recession soon.

No matter what the future holds, the market is very optimistic anyway, so we can follow the investment. There is not much news that can affect the market in the future.At the earliest, it will be the annual meeting of the central bank on August 25-27. Then there is the intensive news period in September. Therefore, most commodities and stock indexes can be tracked by moving average as a stop-loss stop.

US Stock Index

The accelerated rise of the US stock index is unexpected. Although I pointed out in June that the US stock index bottomed out, the market digested the expectation of raising interest rates so quickly and accelerated its rebound, which was really unexpected.

Since there is no more important news until the end of the month, it is impossible to judge the index too much, withGo to the market, go long along the moving average, anyway, there must be corresponding news, and then analyze it again. Emotional market, don't be too demanding on the accuracy of points, it is more important to follow.

Second, gold

So far, gold has rebounded for 4 weeks in a row, and it can be reversed next week. However, due to the lack of fundamental news, even if it falls, it is not necessarily a large range, that is, a normal small adjustment. Therefore, it is strategically recommended to short around 1850.Then stop at around 1860 to test the resistance strength of the 20-week moving average.

If the decline is large, it means that this is the high point area of this round of gold price rebound. If the decline is small or repeated, it means that there is still the possibility of breakthrough in the future. Trading strategy can consider selling short-term options and obtaining option premiums.

At present, the rebound trend of gold price in August is still the rebound process in the long-term downward trend, so no matter how high the rebound in August is, don't be too optimistic, just look at it in the short and medium term.​​

​III. Crude oil

Oil was the weakest of many commodities last week. Although the decline has not accelerated, under the bullish news that inflation has turned, the oil price is not strong, and obviously there is still momentum to fall. I will give you a detailed list of data in Thursday's live class.

Before the mid-term elections in November, oil prices are easy to fall but difficult to rise. Since the initial victory has been achieved in suppressing inflation (CPI data turns head), oil prices, as the banner of inflation, cannot continue to rise, so as to be widely publicized as political achievements during the election.

You can know by carefully analyzing the inflation data,The CPI data turned around, and the decline in gasoline prices contributed (by 20%), while the decline in domestic gasoline prices in the United States depended on the selling of oil reserves in the United States since June.

Therefore, although the fundamentals of the supply side of oil prices are still unsolved, short-term dumping did cause the decline in oil prices. As you can imagine, the election results are undecided, and the ruling party will not easily end selling pressure, so it is good to go long commodities, that is, not to go long oil prices easily.

Therefore, friends who want to go long oil prices can wait for the price to fall and long, or wait for the (average price) to rise above $100 and then turn long.

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