To The Moon

Next week brings the hardest-to-call FOMC meeting in a long while. The reason: the recent sharp rebound in oil, compounded by events such as a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Red Sea shipping, has left the market with little confidence in how inflation expectations will evolve. If inflation persists, expectations for a Fed rate hike will heat up sharply — and could even become reality as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains firmly committed to rate cuts: a hike could trigger a sizable equity correction ahead of the midterm elections and, in turn, hurt his party at the polls. For this week's meeting, therefore, I lean toward the Fed standing pat — but with more hawkish language, nudging the market to give up its easing bets and get its “vaccination” in

For the week ending 24 Jul 2026, there were only a few economic reports to reference. They hardly made a dent in the US market because there were stronger factors dampening, enabling US market to finish the week lower. Index Performance. US market - 3 composite indexes past week performances DJIA. For the week, it fell by -0.4% to close at 51,947.25, despite a late rebound on Fri, 24 Jul 2026. S&P 500. Slipped by -1.03% over the 5 days to 7,411.98, marking its 2nd consecutive weekly decline. Nasdaq. Down by -2.90% for the week, closing at 24,975.82 due to heavy selling in mega-cap tech and the "Magnificent 7". Key Catalysts. Broadly, there were 4 key factors that caused the wild swings in US market, especially the tech index. Geopolitical & Energy Shocks: Brent crude surged past $1

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Told you so: The ceasefire is collapsing, and inflation is still climbing | FSM Global https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsmone/article/rcms380040 I will challenge this topic of inflation cools with an article from FSMone that says otherwise. Coupled with a jump in most prices of bonds today, which usually indicates inflation pressure. @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

For period 15 to 22 July: $Zijin 5xLongSG271021(ZSHW.SI)$ tops the list of Top DLC Gainers this week, as $ZIJIN MINING(02899)$ rose 10.6% over the same period, driven by Gold’s rise as dip-buying outweighed inflation worries from the war. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This advertisement is distributed by Société Générale, Singapore Branch. This advertisement does not form part of any offer or invitation to buy or sell any daily leverage certificates (the “DLCs”), and nothing herein should be considered as financial advice or recommendation. The price may rise and fall in value rapidly and holders may lose all of their investment. Any past performance

Brent crude traded above $90 during July 21, but $Halliburton(HAL)$ fell approximately 5.4%. The divergence illustrates an important distinction: an oilfield-services company benefits from producers’ capital spending, not simply from today’s crude price. Halliburton reported second-quarter revenue of $5.71 billion, approximately 4% higher year over year and above expectations. Net income reached $534 million, or $0.64 per share, while adjusted earnings were $0.55 per share. Halliburton’s official July 21 release provides the reported and adjusted figures. Sequentially, performance improved from the first quarter, when $Halliburton(HAL)$ generated $5.4 billion in revenue, a 13% operating margin and $123 mill

📈 Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Dividend Stocks: OCBC Bank (Part 2) 💰 Understanding Dividend Yield, Valuation & Building Long-Term Wealth Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risk. Dividends are not guaranteed, and past performance does not guarantee future returns. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. ⸻ 🌟 Welcome Back! In Part 1, we learned why OCBC Bank is one of Singapore’s favourite dividend stocks. We explored: * ✅ What OCBC does * ✅ Why dividends matter * ✅ How 100 shares can generate passive income * ✅ OCBC’s growing dividend history * ✅ Strong quarterly earnings * ✅ Why patience is important when investing Now it’s time to go one step further. This chapter will

$Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ is benefiting from higher oil prices, but the current situation demonstrates why an energy producer’s earnings do not always move neatly with the spot price of crude. On July 20, Brent crude briefly traded above $90 per barrel before retreating as investors assessed the possibility of mediation in the US–Iran conflict. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has increased the risk premium in crude and refined products. The price move occurred on July 20; reports were published the same day. The Financial Times’ oil-market report describes both the surge and subsequent pullback. Higher oil prices normally strengthen Exxon’s upstream earnings because each barrel becomes more valuable while many production costs remain comparatively

📈 Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Dividend Stocks: OCBC Bank (Part 1) Building Passive Income One Share at a Time Educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing. ⸻ 🌱 Introduction When I first started investing, I always thought I needed tens of thousands of dollars before I could buy quality dividend stocks. Over time, I realised that wasn’t true. One of the first Singapore blue-chip companies that many beginners look at is OCBC Bank (SGX: O39). It has a long operating history, a strong balance sheet, and has consistently rewarded shareholders with dividends over many years. Even buying 100 shares can be a great learning experience. From the screenshots above, we can observe: * Purchase price: S$16.78 per share * Current price: around

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Singapore Market — $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ Weekly edges up 0.73% to record as banks and tech SDRs extend rally $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ at All-Time Highs: Is It Too Late to Buy? US Tech Earnings Week: How It Moves Your SGX Portfolio？ The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ gained 0.73% and closed at a fresh record high of 5,509.43, marking its sixth consecutive weekly advance. The index has now surged 18.58% YoY, with the three local banks and select China tech SDRs continuing to drive the rally. Sectors: Publishing (+50.00%), Aluminum (+45.24%), and Forest Products (+30.48%) dominated the leaderboard on idiosyncratic catalysts, though these thinly tra

My Investing Muse (20Jul2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies GOOGLE WORKERS ARE BRACING FOR LAYOFFS. 4,500 signed a petition demanding guaranteed severance and an end to performance quotas. 100+ rallied at HQ to deliver it to CEO Sundar Pichai. 4 in 10 tech workers now say they fear being laid off within a year. - X user Layoff Hedge "Millions of Americans want jobs but can't find them, and the number now exceeds the Great Financial Crisis," per Benzinga The total number of job cuts attributed to AI are 87,714 2026, per Challenger and Gray. This is 22% of all 2026 layoffs. - X user Unusual Whale "Midsize companies that employ millions of workers are now shedding jobs and relocating overseas to cut costs," per WSJ Summary of news (compiled by Gemini) The week starting July 13, 2026, sa

News and my thoughts from the past week (20Jul2026) Meta is having a moment... again. Facebook, Instagram, and Messenger are glitching for users around the world, with desktop Facebook logins failing and Instagram throwing up “something went wrong” messages. The apps appear to be working for some people, so this isn’t a total blackout, just enough chaos to make everyone wonder whether they’ve been hacked. Nope. Meta is simply falling apart again. Source: The Independent / Writer: Ian The US is spending $50 billion on data center construction, exceeding the combined spending on airports, ports, and mass transit, per Bloomberg. "We replaced Salesforce with a vibe-coded CRM built for our own workflows. The custom system integrated our AI agents more effectively, worked better for the team, an

Market Outlook of S&P500 (20Jul2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 just completed a crossover and is on a downtrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.16, indicating that the market has more buying momentum than selling momentum. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above 200-day (MA200) moving average but just cut the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the long term and a probable trend change in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. E

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Jul2026) Several major data releases are due in the coming week, each offering insight into demand conditions, labour-market momentum, the housing sector, and the broader economic outlook. Crude oil inventories: Markets typically view this release as a gauge of consumption trends, particularly from the perspective of major oil companies. Initial jobless claims: The latest claims data will be released after a previous reading of 208,000. This remains one of the key labour-market indicators the Federal Reserve monitors when assessing upcoming interest-rate decisions. New home sales: June new home sales will be released following a previous reading of 580,000 units. The data will serve as an important barometer for the health of the real estate m

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Right after the latest CPI print, a market that looks calm on the surface may in fact be quietly brewing a turning point—and an opportunity. In this piece, Owen wants to talk about the topic that is probably on everyone's mind: has the moment to go long gold finally come? Let's lead with our core conclusion: gold is very likely to see a sizable rebound. The reason is that, with CPI unexpectedly cooling, the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes have already faded. The 2-year Treasury yield has broken below its uptrend, dragging the US Dollar Index into a bearish technical structure. Once the Dollar Index breaks its key level, a gold rebound could well be triggered. But this is only a “rebound,” not a “reversal”—to lock in this move steadily, we still have to strictly follow the discipli

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Next week brings the hardest-to-call FOMC meeting in a long while. The reason: the recent sharp rebound in oil, compounded by events such as a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Red Sea shipping, has left the market with little confidence in how inflation expectations will evolve. If inflation persists, expectations for a Fed rate hike will heat up sharply — and could even become reality as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains firmly committed to rate cuts: a hike could trigger a sizable equity correction ahead of the midterm elections and, in turn, hurt his party at the polls. For this week's meeting, therefore, I lean toward the Fed standing pat — but with more hawkish language, nudging the market to give up its easing bets and get its “vaccination” in

For the week ending 24 Jul 2026, there were only a few economic reports to reference. They hardly made a dent in the US market because there were stronger factors dampening, enabling US market to finish the week lower. Index Performance. US market - 3 composite indexes past week performances DJIA. For the week, it fell by -0.4% to close at 51,947.25, despite a late rebound on Fri, 24 Jul 2026. S&P 500. Slipped by -1.03% over the 5 days to 7,411.98, marking its 2nd consecutive weekly decline. Nasdaq. Down by -2.90% for the week, closing at 24,975.82 due to heavy selling in mega-cap tech and the "Magnificent 7". Key Catalysts. Broadly, there were 4 key factors that caused the wild swings in US market, especially the tech index. Geopolitical & Energy Shocks: Brent crude surged past $1

Brent crude traded above $90 during July 21, but $Halliburton(HAL)$ fell approximately 5.4%. The divergence illustrates an important distinction: an oilfield-services company benefits from producers’ capital spending, not simply from today’s crude price. Halliburton reported second-quarter revenue of $5.71 billion, approximately 4% higher year over year and above expectations. Net income reached $534 million, or $0.64 per share, while adjusted earnings were $0.55 per share. Halliburton’s official July 21 release provides the reported and adjusted figures. Sequentially, performance improved from the first quarter, when $Halliburton(HAL)$ generated $5.4 billion in revenue, a 13% operating margin and $123 mill

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Told you so: The ceasefire is collapsing, and inflation is still climbing | FSM Global https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsmone/article/rcms380040 I will challenge this topic of inflation cools with an article from FSMone that says otherwise. Coupled with a jump in most prices of bonds today, which usually indicates inflation pressure. @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

📈 Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Dividend Stocks: OCBC Bank (Part 2) 💰 Understanding Dividend Yield, Valuation & Building Long-Term Wealth Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risk. Dividends are not guaranteed, and past performance does not guarantee future returns. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. ⸻ 🌟 Welcome Back! In Part 1, we learned why OCBC Bank is one of Singapore’s favourite dividend stocks. We explored: * ✅ What OCBC does * ✅ Why dividends matter * ✅ How 100 shares can generate passive income * ✅ OCBC’s growing dividend history * ✅ Strong quarterly earnings * ✅ Why patience is important when investing Now it’s time to go one step further. This chapter will

$Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ is benefiting from higher oil prices, but the current situation demonstrates why an energy producer’s earnings do not always move neatly with the spot price of crude. On July 20, Brent crude briefly traded above $90 per barrel before retreating as investors assessed the possibility of mediation in the US–Iran conflict. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has increased the risk premium in crude and refined products. The price move occurred on July 20; reports were published the same day. The Financial Times’ oil-market report describes both the surge and subsequent pullback. Higher oil prices normally strengthen Exxon’s upstream earnings because each barrel becomes more valuable while many production costs remain comparatively

For period 15 to 22 July: $Zijin 5xLongSG271021(ZSHW.SI)$ tops the list of Top DLC Gainers this week, as $ZIJIN MINING(02899)$ rose 10.6% over the same period, driven by Gold’s rise as dip-buying outweighed inflation worries from the war. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This advertisement is distributed by Société Générale, Singapore Branch. This advertisement does not form part of any offer or invitation to buy or sell any daily leverage certificates (the “DLCs”), and nothing herein should be considered as financial advice or recommendation. The price may rise and fall in value rapidly and holders may lose all of their investment. Any past performance

My Investing Muse (20Jul2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies GOOGLE WORKERS ARE BRACING FOR LAYOFFS. 4,500 signed a petition demanding guaranteed severance and an end to performance quotas. 100+ rallied at HQ to deliver it to CEO Sundar Pichai. 4 in 10 tech workers now say they fear being laid off within a year. - X user Layoff Hedge "Millions of Americans want jobs but can't find them, and the number now exceeds the Great Financial Crisis," per Benzinga The total number of job cuts attributed to AI are 87,714 2026, per Challenger and Gray. This is 22% of all 2026 layoffs. - X user Unusual Whale "Midsize companies that employ millions of workers are now shedding jobs and relocating overseas to cut costs," per WSJ Summary of news (compiled by Gemini) The week starting July 13, 2026, sa

Singapore Market — $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ Weekly edges up 0.73% to record as banks and tech SDRs extend rally $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ at All-Time Highs: Is It Too Late to Buy? US Tech Earnings Week: How It Moves Your SGX Portfolio？ The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ gained 0.73% and closed at a fresh record high of 5,509.43, marking its sixth consecutive weekly advance. The index has now surged 18.58% YoY, with the three local banks and select China tech SDRs continuing to drive the rally. Sectors: Publishing (+50.00%), Aluminum (+45.24%), and Forest Products (+30.48%) dominated the leaderboard on idiosyncratic catalysts, though these thinly tra

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Jul2026) Several major data releases are due in the coming week, each offering insight into demand conditions, labour-market momentum, the housing sector, and the broader economic outlook. Crude oil inventories: Markets typically view this release as a gauge of consumption trends, particularly from the perspective of major oil companies. Initial jobless claims: The latest claims data will be released after a previous reading of 208,000. This remains one of the key labour-market indicators the Federal Reserve monitors when assessing upcoming interest-rate decisions. New home sales: June new home sales will be released following a previous reading of 580,000 units. The data will serve as an important barometer for the health of the real estate m

News and my thoughts from the past week (20Jul2026) Meta is having a moment... again. Facebook, Instagram, and Messenger are glitching for users around the world, with desktop Facebook logins failing and Instagram throwing up “something went wrong” messages. The apps appear to be working for some people, so this isn’t a total blackout, just enough chaos to make everyone wonder whether they’ve been hacked. Nope. Meta is simply falling apart again. Source: The Independent / Writer: Ian The US is spending $50 billion on data center construction, exceeding the combined spending on airports, ports, and mass transit, per Bloomberg. "We replaced Salesforce with a vibe-coded CRM built for our own workflows. The custom system integrated our AI agents more effectively, worked better for the team, an

Right after the latest CPI print, a market that looks calm on the surface may in fact be quietly brewing a turning point—and an opportunity. In this piece, Owen wants to talk about the topic that is probably on everyone's mind: has the moment to go long gold finally come? Let's lead with our core conclusion: gold is very likely to see a sizable rebound. The reason is that, with CPI unexpectedly cooling, the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes have already faded. The 2-year Treasury yield has broken below its uptrend, dragging the US Dollar Index into a bearish technical structure. Once the Dollar Index breaks its key level, a gold rebound could well be triggered. But this is only a “rebound,” not a “reversal”—to lock in this move steadily, we still have to strictly follow the discipli

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 13Jul2026) Key Economic Data to Watch The most closely watched release in the coming week will be the June Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core CPI is forecast to rise by 0.3% month on month, making it a key indicator for inflation trends and market expectations. China’s second-quarter GDP will also be announced. With the previous reading at 5.0%, the result will serve as an important gauge of China’s economic momentum and a useful reference point for global consumption trends. Inflation and Producer Costs The June Producer Price Index (PPI) will be another important release, with a forecast increase of 0.2%. PPI is a useful leading indicator for consumer inflation because higher producer costs may eventually be passed on to consumers through goods

📈 Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Dividend Stocks: OCBC Bank (Part 1) Building Passive Income One Share at a Time Educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing. ⸻ 🌱 Introduction When I first started investing, I always thought I needed tens of thousands of dollars before I could buy quality dividend stocks. Over time, I realised that wasn’t true. One of the first Singapore blue-chip companies that many beginners look at is OCBC Bank (SGX: O39). It has a long operating history, a strong balance sheet, and has consistently rewarded shareholders with dividends over many years. Even buying 100 shares can be a great learning experience. From the screenshots above, we can observe: * Purchase price: S$16.78 per share * Current price: around

Twas the last week of US economic reports before Q2 earnings reporting season kicks in. For week ending 10 Jul 2026, there were only a handful of reports, that are not the main stream but nevertheless provides a glimpse of US economic health. Reports released last week included: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 - S&P final US services PMI. Tue, 07 Jul 2026 - US trade balance. Wed, 08 Jul 2026 - Consumer credit for May 2026. Wed, 08 Jul 2026 - FOMC minutes of meeting for June 2026. Thu, 09 Jul 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & continuing. S&P US Service PMI. The final report for S&P US Service PMI June 2026, came in at 51.2 vs Wall Street consensus of 51.3 vs May 2026’s 50.7. This indicates a modest expansion in the service sector and is an increase from May's final reading that was revised

This dynamic highlights a classic market tug-of-war: improving backward-looking data vs. a forward-looking, hawkish central bank. With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh taking a firm stand at the July hearings—explicitly stating that the Fed has "no tolerance" for persistently elevated inflation and refusing to provide easy forward guidance—investors are forced to reset expectations. The market response will unfold across distinct horizons: Market Reaction: Immediate Shock vs. Gradual Re-Pricing The reaction will be a mix of both immediate volatility and a gradual structural adjustment. The Immediate Reaction (The Next 24–48 Hours): Algorithmic trading and short-term options markets adjust instantly. Because the market has been aggressively pricing in rate cuts, Warsh’s explicit pushback triggers an i

In a stock market environment with ambiguous directionality and persistent consolidation, capital flow data often serves as the primary reference indicator for traders because these data are more authentic than sentiment. In last week's market liquidity data, we discovered: capital is accelerating its flight from US stocks, especially the seven major tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs, where the traces of institutional capital withdrawal are already quite clear. Moreover, the overall net capital flow of individual US stocks is once again showing an expanding outflow. In the latest weekly data of institutional capital inflows and outflows for major seats compiled by Goldman Sachs, massive amounts of capital are fleeing US tech stocks, particularly the 7 star tech stocks:

Last week the Middle East situation produced fresh news again — from the U.S. air strikes on Iran to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz — as if the old script were playing out once more. We noted before that the U.S.–Iran contest is unlikely to end peacefully, and will most probably reignite in the fourth quarter. So will the current developments bring the new fighting forward? On the whole, the probability is relatively limited, because the timing on the U.S. (Trump) side is not yet fully ready, and market behavior also shows that overall sentiment remains relatively stable. From the standpoint of long-term goals, taking Iran down — or at least striking it thoroughly — is the core demand for the U.S. However, both the military situation and inflation pressure previously meant the stalemate

News and my thoughts from the past week (13Jul2026) From X user Katie Miller: OpenAI’s last 24 hours: > Top Exec unexpectedly departs > Shuts down browser tool after 9 months > Sued for trade theft by Apple > Caught selling product to China against sanctions OpenAI is shutting down Atlas, its standalone AI browser, less than a year after launch. The company announced the deprecation alongside ChatGPT Work, a desktop superapp that folds browser capabilities into the main ChatGPT app. Atlas joins Sora and the shelved adult mode as products OpenAI has quietly walked away from in recent months. - X user Hedgie A Brown University economics professor made his take-home midterm harder than usual, figuring unlimited time justified it. 86 students enrolled, up from a typical 8 to 30.

Over the weekend, Iran once again claimed it had blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, after which the U.S. said the Oman shipping lane was still operating normally. For this kind of news about the strait being blockaded or reopened during negotiations, the market has already built up considerable immunity — it was basically fully priced in as soon as Asian markets opened last Monday. So investors need not be overly sensitive to such news; just watch the market's reaction after the open. The relatively important events this week are the Fed Chair's testimony and the release of the CPI data, on which the market will place its bets regarding rate-hike expectations. Although I don't think the Fed will make any major rate-hike move, the market may use the occasion to react ahead of time, causing a c