To The Moon

BREAKING: Japan's Finance Minster Kato and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are arranging a meeting to discuss "forex issues." This comes as the US Dollar just fell to a 52-week low on tariff worries. "Currency manipulation" was the #1 item on President Trump's "non-tariff cheating" list.

USD is in trouble... I have said that 2 years ago (dated April 2023) in a series of articles titled, "US pushes China towards world dominance Series (5 Parts Series)".  Not sure if anyone had read that, not to mention remember those... Having said that, when I wrote those, even though I had mentioned Donald Trump as one of the main culprit for the demise of the dollar, the current scenario is not one I had predicted. The rest of those 5 part-series remains intact. I think 🐯 should give those articles another review and share with the readers! @TigerStars  I would love to share them here again (but not sure how to link them). Each article is a heavyweight on their own right and worth a read... I will probably repost

The $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ has broken through the 98 mark, marking the first time since March 2022, with a drop of over 1% within the day.So far in 2025, the USD index has fallen by more than 9%, making it the worst start to a year since 1995.To put it simply, the USD index breaking through the 98 mark is mainly due to the following reasons:Trump's "Troublemaking"Trump has recently started "speaking out of turn" again, threatening to fire the Federal Reserve chairman and demanding that the Fed cut interest rates. This kind of "reckless talk" has made investors feel that U.S. economic policies are unstable. They are getting nervous and quickly selling off the dollar, which has led to the decline of the USD index.Trade Policy "Adding

It is hard to predict, just based on the history data. The environment and trend of the year 2018 is different from 2025. we never know how the market reacts to current circumstances.

It is hard to predict, just based on the history data. The environment and trend of the year 2018 is different from 2025. we never know how the market reacts to current circumstances.

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 21Apr25 Observations: The MACD indicator has completed the bottom cross-over that suggests an uptrend. Moving Averages (MA). The MA50 line has started a downtrend, while the MA200 line is on an uptrend. This implies a downtrend in the mid-term and a bullish trend in the long term. A death cross has surfaced when the MA50 line cuts the MA200 line from above. A death cross can be seen as a bearish indicator. Death Cross Definition: How and When It Happens Candle. The last candle is below the MA50 and MA200 lines, implying a bearish outlook for the medium and long term. The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a downtrend. Chaikin’s Monetary Flow (CMF) is in the “uptrend zone” (above the 0 line). This implies more buying than selling. L

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended

For the S&P 500, determining whether a double bottom is forming or if the market has already hit a genuine bottom requires analyzing recent price action, market context, and technical indicators. Below, I’ll assess the likelihood based on available data, sentiment, and technical analysis, while addressing whether now is a good time to enter the market. Double Bottom Likelihood: A double bottom may have started around 5,850 in March 2025, but it lacks confirmation (no second low or neckline breakout). The current price (5,396.63) suggests the market is still seeking a bottom, with risks of further declines if support fails. Genuine Bottom: Not yet confirmed. Macro risks and weak technical signals outweigh bullish indicators, though historical resilience suggests a bottom may be near. Ti

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended

Go to moon after goods Friday 

$S&P 500(.SPX) Market Analysis: S&P 500's Death Cross, Powell’s Stance, and the Path Ahead The S&P 500’s recent formation of a "death cross" (50-day moving average below 200-day) and subsequent volatility have intensified debates about whether the index will stabilize, form a double bottom, or plunge further. Here’s a synthesized outlook based on technicals, fundamentals, and geopolitical risks: 1. Death Cross Context: Not All Doom and Gloom - *Historical Precedent*: While the death cross is traditionally seen as a bearish signal, historical data shows mixed outcomes. In 54% of cases since 1971, the S&P 500 had already hit its lowest point before the death cross formed, suggesting potential for a rebound . - Example: The March 2020 death cross preceded a 50% rally with

If you can hard , sure  No cumming , first 

The world is in the big chaos. Maybe cut rate will help.. Trump has over do many things, some went from good to bad. He needs to sit down and think.

From the preliminary stand point, volatility is definitely here to say. Those that are "off the market", it would be a great time to get ready to "time the market", base on Trumps vocal signals. I don't think Powell's current objectives is to "cushion" the market but rather to ensure that inflationary measures are kept at bay... which from trade war stand point, ot would be a very challenging tasks given that US is not manufacturing all the necessary parts but import mostly from China. @koolgal  @MillionaireTiger  @Blinkfans  @BillionaireN  

📉 S&P 500 at a Crossroads: Powell’s Stance and Citi’s Downgrade Signal Trouble Ahead? 📊 Citi equity strategists just downgraded the U.S. stock market, dropping their rating from Overweight to Neutral—and the reasoning is hard to ignore. They’re pointing to global headwinds like DeepSeek’s rapid rise in China, Europe’s tightening fiscal policies, and escalating trade tensions as reasons to diversify away from U.S. markets. Add to that Fed Chair Powell’s clear message of “no market rescue,” and the S&P 500’s path looks shaky. 📍 Here’s my take: The “exceptionalism” narrative that’s fueled U.S. market gains—strong GDP and EPS growth—is under pressure. DeepSeek’s advancements signal China’s growing tech independence, which could hit U.S. tech giants reliant on global supply chains. Mean

Yet to see tariffs impact on inflation and growth, normal for Fed to stay in wait-and-see mode. Think possible for another bottom coming in uncertain times and can buy the dip again.

Fed reserve is a independent private organization. His  top priority is to maintain USD buying power stability. I also wonder what the Fed will do if the US government bonds default. US government and Fed have a totally different target. All Trump wanted is to refinance T-bill as low interest rate as possible, Tariff, recession,  all these are tools to press down T-bill yield. when the T-bill yield surge, Trump administration quickly flipped their policy to calm down T-bill market.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Yesterday, I watched Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell deliver a live speech and participate in a Q&A session at the Economic Club of Chicago. While many of the remarks echoed previous messaging from the Fed, there were some very important implications for both the broader economic landscape and the investing outlook going forward. Let’s unpack what was said, how the markets reacted, and what it means for us as investors trying to navigate this increasingly complex macro environment. 1. The Market's Reflexive Dependence on the Fed Perhaps the most immediate and revealing takeaway was how quickly the market reacted to Powell's comments. At one point, Powell direct

Whether the Fed cuts is not the issue, they are supporting the bonds market and we get the M2 money supply is crucial

USD is in trouble... I have said that 2 years ago (dated April 2023) in a series of articles titled, "US pushes China towards world dominance Series (5 Parts Series)".  Not sure if anyone had read that, not to mention remember those... Having said that, when I wrote those, even though I had mentioned Donald Trump as one of the main culprit for the demise of the dollar, the current scenario is not one I had predicted. The rest of those 5 part-series remains intact. I think 🐯 should give those articles another review and share with the readers! @TigerStars  I would love to share them here again (but not sure how to link them). Each article is a heavyweight on their own right and worth a read... I will probably repost

BREAKING: Japan's Finance Minster Kato and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are arranging a meeting to discuss "forex issues." This comes as the US Dollar just fell to a 52-week low on tariff worries. "Currency manipulation" was the #1 item on President Trump's "non-tariff cheating" list.

The $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ has broken through the 98 mark, marking the first time since March 2022, with a drop of over 1% within the day.So far in 2025, the USD index has fallen by more than 9%, making it the worst start to a year since 1995.To put it simply, the USD index breaking through the 98 mark is mainly due to the following reasons:Trump's "Troublemaking"Trump has recently started "speaking out of turn" again, threatening to fire the Federal Reserve chairman and demanding that the Fed cut interest rates. This kind of "reckless talk" has made investors feel that U.S. economic policies are unstable. They are getting nervous and quickly selling off the dollar, which has led to the decline of the USD index.Trade Policy "Adding

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended

It is hard to predict, just based on the history data. The environment and trend of the year 2018 is different from 2025. we never know how the market reacts to current circumstances.

It is hard to predict, just based on the history data. The environment and trend of the year 2018 is different from 2025. we never know how the market reacts to current circumstances.

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 21Apr25 Observations: The MACD indicator has completed the bottom cross-over that suggests an uptrend. Moving Averages (MA). The MA50 line has started a downtrend, while the MA200 line is on an uptrend. This implies a downtrend in the mid-term and a bullish trend in the long term. A death cross has surfaced when the MA50 line cuts the MA200 line from above. A death cross can be seen as a bearish indicator. Death Cross Definition: How and When It Happens Candle. The last candle is below the MA50 and MA200 lines, implying a bearish outlook for the medium and long term. The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a downtrend. Chaikin’s Monetary Flow (CMF) is in the “uptrend zone” (above the 0 line). This implies more buying than selling. L

$S&P 500(.SPX) Market Analysis: S&P 500's Death Cross, Powell’s Stance, and the Path Ahead The S&P 500’s recent formation of a "death cross" (50-day moving average below 200-day) and subsequent volatility have intensified debates about whether the index will stabilize, form a double bottom, or plunge further. Here’s a synthesized outlook based on technicals, fundamentals, and geopolitical risks: 1. Death Cross Context: Not All Doom and Gloom - *Historical Precedent*: While the death cross is traditionally seen as a bearish signal, historical data shows mixed outcomes. In 54% of cases since 1971, the S&P 500 had already hit its lowest point before the death cross formed, suggesting potential for a rebound . - Example: The March 2020 death cross preceded a 50% rally with

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended

$S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $NASDAQ(. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ )$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ )$ As of April 16, 2025, the S&P 500 faces a critical juncture. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has dashed hopes of a market bailout, stating, “Our focus is on inflation, not equity prices.” Meanwhile, Citi equity strategists, led by Beata Manthey, have downgraded the U.S. stock market from Overweight to Neutral, pointing to fading U.S. exceptionalism amid challenges like Deepseek, Europe’s fiscal stance, and rising trade tensions. With the index hovering near key support levels, is a double bottom forming, or are we headed for 5000—or low

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Yesterday, I watched Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell deliver a live speech and participate in a Q&A session at the Economic Club of Chicago. While many of the remarks echoed previous messaging from the Fed, there were some very important implications for both the broader economic landscape and the investing outlook going forward. Let’s unpack what was said, how the markets reacted, and what it means for us as investors trying to navigate this increasingly complex macro environment. 1. The Market's Reflexive Dependence on the Fed Perhaps the most immediate and revealing takeaway was how quickly the market reacted to Powell's comments. At one point, Powell direct

As of April 17, 2025, concerns about "tarifflation" and "Trumpflation" dominate economic headlines, with predictions of steep price hikes for consumer goods due to the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs—145% on $541 billion of Chinese imports, 10% on non-Chinese imports, and 20–100% on select countries. Despite these fears, retail prices have largely held steady: iPhones still start at $799, shirts average $50, and PlayStation 5s remain $499. This price stability—alongside declining inflation (Truflation at 1.4%), plunging consumer sentiment (University of Michigan Sentiment Survey at 50.8, near record lows), and sluggish retail sales growth (1.8% YoY)—suggests Trump's economic agenda may be mitigating the risks of a consumer-led recession and deflation, rather than triggering hyperin

On Mon, 14 Apr 2025, the S&P 500 reached an ominous-sounding milestone even as stocks largely added to their gains from last week’s rebound. When trading ended at 4pm, the large-cap index managed to tally a “death cross” — its first since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. S&P 500 - 14 Apr 2025 - Death Cross !! What is a “Death Cross” ? A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (ma) of a stock or index dips below its 200-day ma. Technical analysts interpret it as a sign that a correction could be metastasizing into a deeper downtrend. Did You Know ? As US stocks continue to struggle of late in 2025, a death cross has already appeared to: The small-cap Russell 2000 index. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , it has flashed this pat

For the S&P 500, determining whether a double bottom is forming or if the market has already hit a genuine bottom requires analyzing recent price action, market context, and technical indicators. Below, I’ll assess the likelihood based on available data, sentiment, and technical analysis, while addressing whether now is a good time to enter the market. Double Bottom Likelihood: A double bottom may have started around 5,850 in March 2025, but it lacks confirmation (no second low or neckline breakout). The current price (5,396.63) suggests the market is still seeking a bottom, with risks of further declines if support fails. Genuine Bottom: Not yet confirmed. Macro risks and weak technical signals outweigh bullish indicators, though historical resilience suggests a bottom may be near. Ti

Will the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ form a double bottom?The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 0 index is currently in a downtrend, approaching the previous low of 5168.98. If it can stabilize near the MA200 (5753.47) and show a rebound with reduced volume, it may form a double bottom. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the RSI and KDJ indicators; if there are oversold or overbought signals, cautious operations are needed. Changes in trading volume are also crucial; if a stabilization with reduced volume occurs near the support level, it may indicate the formation of a double bottom. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ EPS Estimates for 2025 are now at $263.05, with a growth

Market volatility from tariffs also poses a challenge to the 2025 outlook for U.S. airlines.Despite a strong start to the year and optimistic forecasts, the U.S. airline industry is now facing significant headwinds due to economic uncertainty, rising inflation and shifting consumer behavior.While the long-term growth trajectory through 2030 remains optimistic, immediate concerns about declining passenger traffic and spending have prompted airlines to implement capacity adjustments for the upcoming quarter. $United Continental(UAL)$ reported first quarter earnings after the bell on April 15, 2025, and the company delivered its best quarterly financial performance in nearly five years, despite the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment.Market F

Just when the markets seemed to find their footing, fresh tariff tensions have re-entered the scene — and the S&P 500 is showing signs of stress. With volatility creeping back and investor sentiment turning cautious, the question on many traders’ minds is this: are we about to revisit the recent lows… or worse? Historically, double bottoms form when a market tests its previous low, shakes out the weak hands, and either rebounds or breaks. But in this case, global macro conditions aren't making things easy. Tariff battles, especially between the U.S. and China, are flaring up again, and this time they’re hitting sensitive sectors like semiconductors, EVs, and tech hardware — the very pillars that propped up recent market gains. Earnings season has been a mixed bag, inflation prints rema

Recently $ Jingdong (JD) $ takeaway heat, Liu Qiangdong a takeaway business for the internal speech "no surprise" to "accidentally" out, alluding to the United States group profits are too high.But look carefully at the full version, this is just Liu Qiangdong down the PUA, outside the persona of the marketing strategy.Do takeaway according to Liu Qiangdong this line of thinking, is unable to pose any threat to the United States group.His three core ideas have logical problems.First, the control of profit margins, to maintain net profit within 5%, in order to ensure that the merchant profitsJingdong gives the public a preconceived illusion that takeout can be very simple to achieve "very high profits", but Jingdong "good intentions" convergence, delibe

$Netflix(NFLX)$ has shown notable strength recently, delivering a YTD return of +9.5%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (.SPX), which is down -8.25%.Last week's rally could be attributed to the market's belief that Netflix is relatively immune to tariff-related headwinds. This week's strength, however, appears more related to heightened earnings expectations. What's surprising is that NFLX rose 6.31% in the week leading up to its earnings, despite its Monday-implied volatility (IV) pricing in a ±10% move post-earnings.More interestingly—perhaps coincidentally or by design—the anticipated earnings gap (post-earnings gap-up/down) will not impact the weekly options expiring on April 17, as the market is closed on April 18 due to a holiday

📉 S&P 500 at a Crossroads: Powell’s Stance and Citi’s Downgrade Signal Trouble Ahead? 📊 Citi equity strategists just downgraded the U.S. stock market, dropping their rating from Overweight to Neutral—and the reasoning is hard to ignore. They’re pointing to global headwinds like DeepSeek’s rapid rise in China, Europe’s tightening fiscal policies, and escalating trade tensions as reasons to diversify away from U.S. markets. Add to that Fed Chair Powell’s clear message of “no market rescue,” and the S&P 500’s path looks shaky. 📍 Here’s my take: The “exceptionalism” narrative that’s fueled U.S. market gains—strong GDP and EPS growth—is under pressure. DeepSeek’s advancements signal China’s growing tech independence, which could hit U.S. tech giants reliant on global supply chains. Mean