To The Moon

English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? $美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$ $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c

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After the US close this Wednesday,$Micron Technology(MU)$ reports Q4 FY2026. Analysts are forecasting ~$51.5B in revenue, up 355% YoY, and adjusted EPS of about $31.8, up 1,004% YoY. On valuation, MU trades at a P/E of 23.66 — well off the extreme highs seen in 2024, but still sitting around the middle of its historical range. Breaking down the revenue, Micron's business splits into three segments: DRAM, NAND, and others. DRAM is the main growth engine, driven by AI server demand — Q4 revenue from DRAM is expected to jump 325% YoY. NAND is also surging on both price and volume, with Q4 revenue up 446% YoY. DRAM alone is expected to contribute ~$38.2B, roughly 75% of total revenue. This whole upcycle is being powered by AI compute dem

According to Vanguard, as of 31 Aug 2026, the $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ held roughly $1.76 trillion in total net assets and anchors retirement portfolios nationwide. Most holders treat it as a broadly diversified position across 500 companies. With an expense ratio of mere 0.03% that makes the cost nearly invisible. A $500 monthly contribution since VOO’s September 2010 launch would have grown to roughly $330,000, powered by VOO’s +825% price return over the same window. According to 24/7 Wall St, VOO’s price appreciation has been fueled almost entirely by mega-cap technology names such as $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, $Apple(AAPL)$ and

🌟🌟🌟The financial landscape has shifted beneath our feet.  For over a decade, investors were coddled by a world of near zero interest rates.  It was an environment where free flowing money inflated speculative growth and fundamentals were often treated as an afterthought. Today that illusion is gone. We have transitioned into a restrictive higher for longer interest rate regime where central banks hold rates elevated to combat persistent inflation and a stubborn US bond market where 10 year yields have pierced past 5%. In this new reality, cheap leverage is a relic of the past.  Companies relying on debt to survive are facing an operational winter.  It is enough to make any sane investor want to log out of their brokerage account, cash it all out and physically stuff the

If interest rates stay higher for longer, I would not sit entirely in cash waiting for the “perfect” entry. I would adjust my allocation, keep investing, and make higher yields work in my favour. The latest Fed decision reinforces this scenario. In September, the Fed raised the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00%, while its median projection puts the policy rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027. Inflation is also projected to remain above the 2% target for some time. If I had $10,000 to deploy today, my allocation would look roughly like this: 📈 $5,000 – Global/U.S. equities I would continue accumulating diversified ETFs rather than trying to time the bottom. Within equities, I would favour profitable, cash-generative companies with strong balance sheets. Higher borrowing cost

Gold: The Short-Term Structure On September 28, with gold trading around $4,228.615, down approximately 0.06%, my short-term view was bearish. Central-bank gold purchases and concerns about U.S. government debt remained longer-term sources of support, but a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields were exerting more immediate pressure on gold.$微型10年美債收益率主連 2609(10Ymain)$ $微型30年美債收益率主連 2610(30Ymain)$ $30年美債主連 2612(ZBmain)$ $10年美債主連 2612(ZNmain)$ On the 30-minute chart, gold formed a swing high near 4,318, then made a series of lower high

Oil above US$100 changes the market equation for me. The biggest issue is not simply higher petrol prices, but the chain reaction: higher energy and transport costs → higher inflation → higher-for-longer interest rates → pressure on corporate margins and equity valuations. 🟢 Potential winners: Energy Oil producers such as $Exxon Mobil (XOM)$, $Chevron (CVX)$ and $ConocoPhillips (COP)$ should generally benefit if crude remains elevated because higher realised oil prices can translate into stronger cash flow. Refiners may also benefit when refining margins are favourable. We have already seen this rotation: when Brent moved above US$100 on 9 September, the S&P 500 Energy sector gained 1.1% while every other S&P sector declined. 🟡 Technology: Strong fundamentals meet a macro headwind