10Ymain (Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2504)
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avatarKon How
2022-10-16

Major Bonds Markets: Where Money is Going on

Where the ultra-high net worth, institutional and government’s money flowing to? It seems the China’s bond markets is opposing this trend. All spending or borrowings will come at a price. Being mis-managed, the real danger will be with the continuous rise in interest rates and yet the dollar starts weakening, just like the pound. Not happening now, I am keeping watch on this closely. However, it is not all bad news… More video tutorials, follow my YouTube channel: Invest & Trade with Insight $CN3Y(CN3Y.BOND)$ $CN5Y(CN5Y.BOND)$ 
Major Bonds Markets: Where Money is Going on
avatarAlvin Chow
2022-10-13

Should you sell your stocks

The stock markets have been trending down for the good part of 2022 and investors are feeling the heat. Most investors whom we have interacted with believed the bear market will continue and are putting off buying stocks. Some don't even want to look at the markets as we see a general drop in interest for investing content. A smaller group of investors is still involved in the markets and is looking for opportunities to buy. They have cash to deploy but still the fear can be debilitating. Some have flocked to fixed deposits or bonds as yields rise. They feel safer in this period as they are capital guaranteed (at maturity). This flight to safety behavior is common throughout history. That said, buying stocks are still an easier task than selling. No investor is able to build a perfect por
Should you sell your stocks
avatarKon How
2022-10-02

Inflation and Interest Rate Series - Inverted Yield Curve

Today we discussed the relationship between: • Difference between interest rate and yield? • How to tell when Yields are inverted? • Why it is important to note of yield curve inversion? • What is the long-term trend for interest rates and yields Difference between interest rate and yield? i. Interest rates are a benchmark for borrowers and ii. Yields are for lenders. For eg. investors to the U.S. government iii. Both interest rates and yields move in tandem together Why is it important to note yield inversion? "The real winner in rising inflation, USD or Gold?"The real danger will be with the continuous rise in interest rates and yet the dollar starts weakening, just like the pound. Not happening now, I am keeping watch on this closely. More video tutorials, follow by YouTube channel
Inflation and Interest Rate Series - Inverted Yield Curve
avatarKon How
2022-09-30

Thoughs on Macro Economy& AAPL

Hello everyone, today I want to share some views on macro economy with you.What is a growth recession? The Fed initially target for soft landing, but now to growth recession, why?Throughout 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 5 times in an attempt to cool the U.S. economy and reduce inflation. The goal has been to do this without sparking a recession, thereby creating a so-called “soft landing” for the economy.Growth recession is describing an economy that is growing at such a slow pace that more jobs are being lost than are being added. A growth recession does not reach the severity of a true recession, but still involves a rise in unemployment and an economy that is performing below its potential.Why the Fed
Thoughs on Macro Economy& AAPL
avatarInvesting1o1
2022-09-30
So few days back I talked about looking at the USDand ‌$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$‌ as well as the ‌$Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2209(10Ymain)$‌ to know whether we have a temporary bottom. The reason I did my video attached below is because of this 3 tickers that showed a temporary peak. When USD hit 114 early in the week, my guys said it could touch 120 by EOW and was worried my long theory might be wrong. After analysing USD charts, I said it will pullback by this week towards 111.90 and if that support doesn't hold, it will go towards 109. It is currently at 111.70. VIX also on my video I stated look at the downtrend line, on wednesday when it spiked above it, it did not close above it, in fac
avatarJohnL
2022-09-29

Yield Inversion (10y - 2y)

Been holding a futures pair trade (short $Micro 2-Year Yield - main 2209(2YYmain)$,long $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2209(10Ymain)$). The rationale was 10 year yield should always be higher under Normal circumstances. In statistics world, revert to mean is expected in the long run. The yield Inversion have been up and down same like all other asset classes. The trade has yet to work out to my favour. But it is definitely good personal experience learning about futures product. Next I will look into $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2211(MCLmain)$
Yield Inversion (10y - 2y)
avatarKon How
2022-09-23

What the Bonds Yields show?

All the fixed tenure yields have broken above their four decades of downtrend.To note, the shorter end rate, the fixed 2 year tenure yield is climbing faster than the longer end, the U.S. fixed 30 year tenure government bond yield.How it is going to close in 2022 in this yearly chart, it will be crucial to determine the trend transition; from this long-term downtend to uptrend.More video tutorials, follow by YouTube channel:Invest & Trade with Insight$Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2209(10Ymain)$ $Micro 2-Year Yield - main 2209(2YYmain)$&nbs
What the Bonds Yields show?
avatarKon How
2022-09-22

Dollar Towering, Stocks Cowering as Fed Hikes Higher

"The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish to the extent that policy needs to be more restrictive, or restrictive for longer," Fed Chair Jerome PowellThe Fed raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, the third such rise in a row, and officials project rates hitting 4.4% this year - higher than markets had priced in before the meeting, 100 bps more than the Fed projected three months ago.Central bank meetings in the Philippines, Indonesia, Switzerland, Britain and Norway are due later in the day with hikes expected everywhere.How has it impacted the market so far?• Dollar rose• Short-dated bonds sold off – Yield curve inverted• Wall Street fell overnight• Extending into Asia sessionThough interest rates should continue to higher both in the short and long-term, a
Dollar Towering, Stocks Cowering as Fed Hikes Higher
avatarCody_Collins
2022-09-20

Should You Finally Consider Adding Bonds to Your Portfolio?

Drastic times call for drastic measuresPhoto by Ante Hamersmit on UnsplashWe are in “unprecedented” times; a “polycrisis.”A pandemic, war in Ukraine, inflation, supply chain issues, an impending recession, high government debt, rising energy prices, climate issues, and political divide.It may seem like we are facing many issues, but these have been ongoing for months. There’s almost nothing new to discuss.One new topic to discuss is the rising short-term interest rates and falling financial markets.Interest RatesThe Federal Reserve has been raising the benchmark interest rate for the last few months. Since raising rates in March, the Fed has raised rates at each of the following meetings. And they will raise rates at their September meeting (September 20–21); it is widely accepte
Should You Finally Consider Adding Bonds to Your Portfolio?
avatarKon How
2022-09-20

Yields are Inverted: Why Does it Matter?

How to tell if the yield is inverted? And why it is indicating recession. A quick and simple illustration on:• Difference between interest rate and yield?• Why is it important to note yield inversion?• How to tell when Yields are inverted?1. Difference between interest rate and yield?i. Interest rates are a benchmark for borrowers andii. Yields are for lenders. For eg. investors to the U.S. governmentiii. Both interest rates and yields move in tandem together2. Why is it important to note yield inversion?i. For eg. - when the return on a 30-years yield is lower than the 2-year yield, that indicates a?ii. For lenders or investors – a pessimistic outlook, a reluctance to commit their money to the longer-term bond, they prefer short-term deposits as the market is unclear in the long-term.iii.
Yields are Inverted: Why Does it Matter?
avatarJohnL
2022-08-18
$Micro 2-Year Yield - main 2208(2YYmain)$$Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2208(10Ymain)$$Micro 30-Year Yield - main 2208(30Ymain)$ The yield curve inversion has been a hot topic since it is one of the commonly used indicators to predict recession. One can express their point of view through futures products. Personally I chose the smaller size micros since requiring lesser capital. For e.g. If one believes the inversion will flatten (ie. spread is lesser) , then buy 10y yield product, sell 2y yield product. Note that this is a pair trade. Check out the video from CME. https://youtu.be/Cf0ZHn56cGA
avatarInvesting1o1
2022-08-14
With $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$$S&P 500(.SPX)$overbought now on daily chart, this week will probably give us a decent pullback before moving up again or we could just see an overall change of trend like what happened during late march - early april when markets went overbought on daily charts.We are staying nimble as usual. Every signal was right up until friday!When markets are overbought with smaller timeframes on multiple negative divergences, its time to stay nimble and defensive. Not overly bullish. There are also signs of $Light Crude Oil - main 2208(CLmain)$ ,
avatarTechnicalHunter
2022-06-29

Failed to Fill the Gap, 30-DMA High Pressures, Any Miracles?

What happened on Tuesday's trading?$S&P 500(.SPX)$ -2.01%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -2.98%; $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2205(10Ymain)$ -3 bps to 3.17%;  USD rallied globally, DXY near 104.5; Brent oil+2.5% to $117.98/bbl; U.S. consumer confidence & Richmond FED Mfg Ind disappointed.Seems $S&P 500(.SPX)$  see huge pressure from boss the 30-DMA & Gap.Day ChartSame, the weekly chart shows the Gap's pressure more ob
Failed to Fill the Gap, 30-DMA High Pressures, Any Miracles?
avatarDoTrading
2022-05-17

$GOLD-Time for bullion...

$Gold - main 2206(GCmain)$ $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2205(10Ymain)$ Gold could find support if activity in China begins to rebound in the coming weeks after prolonged shutdowns severely hampered demand.Watch the Divergence between DXY and Gold...Also note the latest move in real yields, perhaps offering short-term support for gold.Thanks, for reading.@Do_Trading
$GOLD-Time for bullion...
avatarDoTrading
2022-05-13

SPX - Friday the 13th would be an opportune...

$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2205(10Ymain)$ The trading day began with the latest data showing that high inflation is sticking around in the U.S. The producer price index rose 11% year-over-year in April. That was just below March's 11.2% rate and higher than economists' average estimate of 10.7%.Rising costs for producers are a concern in the near term because they crimp companies' pro
SPX - Friday the 13th would be an opportune...
avatarDoTrading
2022-05-12

SPX - No help from CPI...

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2205(10Ymain)$ No help from CPI.Analysts say the market is in a fragile place...Preliminary session:After initially trying to find good news in the report, stocks turned negative in the early afternoon and then continued to fall from there. The S&P 500 closed down 1.65%, near its low for the day.Bear market territory would be rapidly approaching with the inde
SPX - No help from CPI...
avatarDoTrading
2022-05-06

S&P500 - Back to test support...

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $Volatility Index - main 2205(VIXmain)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500(SPXU)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2205(10Ymain)$ In a complete reversal of yesterday's rally, US stock prices fell sharply. Update Link SPXUS Treasury yields rose as the market continued to digest FOMC action and assess the chances of a recession.Implied volatility in o
S&P500 - Back to test support...
avatarDoTrading
2022-05-05

Fed Hikes Rates Half-Point...SPX levels

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Volatility Index - main 2205(VIXmain)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2205(10Ymain)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500(SPXU)$ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has assured Americans that policymakers will do what it takes to rein in soaring inflation, acknowledging it could cause "some pain" - including job loss -The US central bank was rolling out its most powerful policy tightening in decades. The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2000 and Powell
Fed Hikes Rates Half-Point...SPX levels
avatarDoTrading
2022-05-03

S&P500 in capitulation...?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2205(10Ymain)$ Markets expect the Federal Reserve, which meets this week, to raise rates by 50 basis points to curb inflation.It would be the largest rate increase in 22 years.Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are now hovering around 3%, levels we haven't seen since 2018.Traders expect the Bank of England to also hike rates at its meeting on Thursday.Much of this pr
S&P500 in capitulation...?
avatarDoTrading
2022-04-30

GOLD, pushed beyond $2,000...

$Gold - main 2206(GCmain)$ $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$  $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2205(10Ymain)$ US GOLDSpot gold was up 1.08% at $1,911.70 an ounce. Gold prices rose on Friday after the dollar retreated, but the metal remained underperforming this April on bets of aggressive policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve.The gold market has seen a steady sell-off over the past few weeks as the dollar rallied. Indeed the US dollar had its best month since 2015, having been boosted by a combination of expectations of rate hikes in the United States and growth concerns in China an
GOLD, pushed beyond $2,000...
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