This week’s macro focus was the Fed’s September meeting. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, after markets had priced in more than 92% odds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.0266%, widening the 10-year/3-month spread to 89 basis points. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $109 a barrel and drove WTI up about 9.6% for the week. Higher yields and geopolitical risk weighed on U.S. equities, with the Dow down 1.56% and the S&P 500 off 0.78%. Commodities diverged: crude gained nearly 10%, while copper and aluminum each fell about 1%. Gold lost 1.4% and silver fell more than 5%, extending precious metals’ losing streak to three weeks. As of the close on September 16, 2026, the week
10Ymain (Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2609)
Please go to Tiger Trade for futures detailsDownload APP
Futures Capital Insight: Equity Outflows Narrow Sharply as Gold, Silver Longs Retreat
Futures Capital Insight: Equity Outflows Narrow Sharply as Gold, Silver Longs Retreat
Will September’s FOMC set the market’s direction——How to trade gold and Bitcoin trends?💰💰
Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>
Will September’s FOMC set the market’s direction——How to trade gold and Bitcoin trends?💰💰
Central Banks Are Buying Gold and ETFs Are Selling: Whose Money Decides the Next Move?
After rallying in August, gold has pulled back to the midpoint of that advance, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a clear upper hand. Technically, prices remain confined to the prior consolidation range, leaving room for either a breakout or a breakdown in the near term. The question is not whether gold must rise or fall, but whether post-FOMC macro moves can force a break from the range. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ FOMC Surprise Drives Near-Term Pricing, With Real Yields and the Do
Central Banks Are Buying Gold and ETFs Are Selling: Whose Money Decides the Next Move?
Futures Weekly:Institutions Pile into Energy&Metals as Tight Oil Inventories Risk Premiums
Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in
Futures Weekly:Institutions Pile into Energy&Metals as Tight Oil Inventories Risk Premiums
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Is the Main Downwave Here?! Don’t Be a Permabear — Know When to Lock In Gains
Recent capital flows in the financial markets paint quite an intriguing picture. While everyone is still watching to see if US stocks have peaked or will continue to surge, massive funds have quietly executed a major rotation. In today's note, I will use the latest market fund data to discuss these ongoing trend changes. Let me start with the conclusion: the current downward trend in U.S. stocks may not have actually ended, but until the S&P 500 posts a pullback of more than 8%, we should not preemptively assume this is a massive bear market. We can consider carefully building short positions, but once key market signals appear, we must take profits promptly and adjust our bearish view. $S&P 500(.SPX)$
Is the Main Downwave Here?! Don’t Be a Permabear — Know When to Lock In Gains
Futures Weekly： Equity Fund Outflows Narrow, While Gold Allocation Heats Up
In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of
Futures Weekly： Equity Fund Outflows Narrow, While Gold Allocation Heats Up
Stuck in a Slow-Bleed Market? 3 Key Strategies to Watch
1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,
Stuck in a Slow-Bleed Market? 3 Key Strategies to Watch
US Treasury Yield Hits 4%! Will Rate Cut Estimates Force Market Down?
On Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2410(10Ymain)$, often referred to as the "global asset pricing anchor," hit 4.26%, its highest level since July.1. Election trades and inflation outlooks have reduced expectations for rate cuts.The recent rise in the 10-year yield has nearly mirrored increasing speculation in betting markets that former President Trump will win the election.His tax cut policies could potentially reignite inflation. According to the betting site Polymarket, Trump currently has a 64% chance of winning the November election, while Harris trails with a 36% chance. However, Harris’s policies could also stoke inflation. Affected by inflation concern, the interest rate swap market has
US Treasury Yield Hits 4%! Will Rate Cut Estimates Force Market Down?
💰3 Questions for Tigers After Fed's 50bps Rate Cut
THE FED DECISION IS OUT! The Fed shocked the world today.Rates have been cut by 50 bps. It marked the first Fed decision since 2005 with a Fed member dissenting.What should investors care about after first 50bps rate cut? @MaverickWealthBuilder Rate Cut Trading 2｜landing or crashing？ how to grasp the interest rate cut cycle！ @Tiger_Academy Here’s a visual overview of the Fed Funds Rate, including the latest cut:@carbonfinancexThe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rises to a new all time high after the Fed surprise
💰3 Questions for Tigers After Fed's 50bps Rate Cut
📅 Global Impacts Study Before the Coming 2024 Fed Rate Cuts
The US 🗣️Federal Reserve's interest rate is expected to cut since sep.18th 2024📅.Usually the rate cut decisions have far-reaching effects on the global economy and financial markets. Here is an explanation of the main impacts that may arise from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts:Global Impact:Federal Reserve rate cuts typically lead to a decline in global bond yields, as U.S. Treasury bonds $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2409(10Ymain)$ , serving as a benchmark for global asset pricing, will see their yields fall, driving down yields across the global bond market.With reduced financing costs, businesses and individuals are more inclined to borrow, which may stimulate consumption and investment, thereby boosting the growth of the U.S. econo
📅 Global Impacts Study Before the Coming 2024 Fed Rate Cuts
Trend Charts: SPY, QQQ, COIN, MARA, TNX, JPM, TSLA& IWM
Hello everyone! Today I want to share some potential stocks with you! Hope it can help u!The stocks are as follow:$Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2401(10Ymain)$ 10-Year Yield back with an vengeance? If so, it would be a headwind for equities.Image $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ "Nothing goes up in a straight line" JPM: Hold my beerImage $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Things that make you go hmmmImage $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Insiders securing their bag.Image $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ The Nasdaq just closed its fifth red day in a row, its longest losing streak in over a year!Image
Trend Charts: SPY, QQQ, COIN, MARA, TNX, JPM, TSLA& IWM
SPX, NDX, IWM Notes For 17th November 2023
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The day ended with an invalidation of the shooting star seen on Wednesday, the candle is neutral, worth noting that when price bounced at the 5 DMA. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ and $USD/CNH(USDCNH.FOREX)$ look bouncy, a red morning is possible for indexes, but either bull or bear case have to be confirmed as follows: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Bull: Overcoming 4520 $S&P 500(.SPX)$Bear: Breaking the 5DMA $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ : The close looks more bullish, $Micro 10-Year
SPX, NDX, IWM Notes For 17th November 2023
Mid-term Pattern & Target Price of $AAPL, $META, $TNX, $VIX, $SPY& $DJI
Hello everyone! Today I want to share some technical analysis with you! Hope it can help you!The stocks are as follow:Called it! KABOOM . Projected price target of 184 hit precisely on $Apple(AAPL)$ . Fantastic!ImageImageCalled it! KABOOM 325 hit precisely on $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ . SUPERB! ImageImagePotential bearish shark pattern developing on $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2311(10Ymain)$ . Target 3.261%ImageButterfly pattern in development on $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ . First target 11.40ImagePotential butterfly pattern developing on $DJIA(.DJI)$ . Projected price
Mid-term Pattern & Target Price of $AAPL, $META, $TNX, $VIX, $SPY& $DJI
Trend Charts: QQQ, SPY, MS, ASML, ABT, TNX, TSLA& MA
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some potential stocks with you! Hope it can help you!The stocks are as follow: $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ threatening new 52-week lows this morning after Q3 earnings disappoint. ~EPS: $1.38 vs $1.29 est ~SALES: $13.27B vs $12.58B est ~Investment Banking Revenues Down 27% YoY $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ posts an EPS beat, Sales miss for the third quarter. ~EPS: $5.24 vs $5.00 est ~SALES: $7.26B vs $7.49B est $Abbott Laboratories(ABT)$ posts double earnings beat, raises FY23 EPS guidance. ~EPS: $1.14 vs $1.04 est ~SALES: $10.14B vs $9.32B est ~FY23 EPS: $4.42-$4.46 vs $4.30-$4.50 prior $Invesco QQQ Trus
Trend Charts: QQQ, SPY, MS, ASML, ABT, TNX, TSLA& MA
Trend Charts: AAPL, AMZN, QQQ, TNX, TLT, IWM&SPY
Hello everyone! Today I want to share some potential stocks with you! Hope it can be helpful to you!The stocks are as follow: $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2310(10Ymain)$ Yields riding the wave .Image $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Can't catch a break.Image $Apple(AAPL)$ has filled the Sep 7th gap down, Q2 & Q3 earning gaps remain open. Q2 gap fill: -8.3% Q3 gap fill: +4.9%Image $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ Semiconductor Bull ETF on a rampage.Image $S&P 500(.SPX)$ By my calculations the S&P is clearly nearing support.Image
Trend Charts: AAPL, AMZN, QQQ, TNX, TLT, IWM&SPY
How Are Interest-Hike Factored Into US Assets?
After FOMC Sep. meeting, dot plot has changed, which further propelled the US bond to rise to 4.5%. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Fed dot plot did not raise the endpoint for rate hikes, but it postponed the timing and frequency of rate cuts, which is more dovish than the market expected. Dot plot Sep. vs JuneTerm premiums (compensation for holding long-term government bonds) are the main contributor to the upward pressure on interest rates, rather than interest rate expectations, also indicating that the market does not fully agree that there will be another rate hike within the year according to the dot plot, but it is concerned about the uncertainty of the path. Although the uncertainty about the future rate cut path is far from reali
How Are Interest-Hike Factored Into US Assets?
US Treasury Yields Retrace! How to Follow Treasuries on Tiger Trade?
Last night, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ recorded its largest single-day gain in nearly three months. At the same time, yields on various maturities of US Treasuries sharply retreated from their recent highs. Traders in the interest rate markets are betting that the latest signs of a slowdown in the US job market will ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further this year.Among them, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 15.2 basis points to 4.905%, the 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 12.2 basis points to 4.282%, the 10-year Treasury yield declined by 8.1 basis points to 4.126%, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell by 4.6 basis points to 4.233%.Data released on Tuesday showed signs of a cooling US economy, indicating that the comprehens
US Treasury Yields Retrace! How to Follow Treasuries on Tiger Trade?
Fitch's Downgrade to the U.S. Treasury Is More Like a Political Declaration
U.S. stocks pulled back last week due to:Fitch downgraded U.S. debt; The Treasury Department announced that it will sell more U.S. debt in the second half of the year.$S&P 500(.SPX)$Weekly chartThese two reasons made $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$and $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2308(10Ymain)$ rise, coupled with $Apple(AAPL)$ s earnings report, which was lower than expected, which brought down the stock market and commodities.These are emergencies that no one can predict in advance. But it is predictable that the effects of these events will fade soon, DXY and UST10Y will return to the downward trajectory,
Fitch's Downgrade to the U.S. Treasury Is More Like a Political Declaration
US Market| Thoughts on US Bonds
Uk bonds has showed a good trend up.. from a long term trend down.... time to improve... up. $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2302(10Ymain)$ $Micro 5-Year Yield - main 2302(5YYmain)$ $Micro 30-Year Yield - main 2302(30Ymain)$ GBP breaks its trend showing a correction on way.. for moment its short! $GBP/USD(GBPUSD.FOREX)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
US Market| Thoughts on US Bonds