On Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2410(10Ymain)$, often referred to as the "global asset pricing anchor," hit 4.26%, its highest level since July.1. Election trades and inflation outlooks have reduced expectations for rate cuts.The recent rise in the 10-year yield has nearly mirrored increasing speculation in betting markets that former President Trump will win the election.His tax cut policies could potentially reignite inflation. According to the betting site Polymarket, Trump currently has a 64% chance of winning the November election, while Harris trails with a 36% chance. However, Harris’s policies could also stoke inflation. Affected by inflation concern, the interest rate swap market has

The US 🗣️Federal Reserve's interest rate is expected to cut since sep.18th 2024📅.Usually the rate cut decisions have far-reaching effects on the global economy and financial markets. Here is an explanation of the main impacts that may arise from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts:Global Impact:Federal Reserve rate cuts typically lead to a decline in global bond yields, as U.S. Treasury bonds $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2409(10Ymain)$ , serving as a benchmark for global asset pricing, will see their yields fall, driving down yields across the global bond market.With reduced financing costs, businesses and individuals are more inclined to borrow, which may stimulate consumption and investment, thereby boosting the growth of the U.S. econo

After FOMC Sep. meeting, dot plot has changed, which further propelled the US bond to rise to 4.5%. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Fed dot plot did not raise the endpoint for rate hikes, but it postponed the timing and frequency of rate cuts, which is more dovish than the market expected. Dot plot Sep. vs JuneTerm premiums (compensation for holding long-term government bonds) are the main contributor to the upward pressure on interest rates, rather than interest rate expectations, also indicating that the market does not fully agree that there will be another rate hike within the year according to the dot plot, but it is concerned about the uncertainty of the path. Although the uncertainty about the future rate cut path is far from reali

Last night, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ recorded its largest single-day gain in nearly three months. At the same time, yields on various maturities of US Treasuries sharply retreated from their recent highs. Traders in the interest rate markets are betting that the latest signs of a slowdown in the US job market will ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further this year.Among them, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 15.2 basis points to 4.905%, the 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 12.2 basis points to 4.282%, the 10-year Treasury yield declined by 8.1 basis points to 4.126%, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell by 4.6 basis points to 4.233%.Data released on Tuesday showed signs of a cooling US economy, indicating that the comprehens

U.S. stocks pulled back last week due to:Fitch downgraded U.S. debt; The Treasury Department announced that it will sell more U.S. debt in the second half of the year.$S&P 500(.SPX)$Weekly chartThese two reasons made $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$and $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2308(10Ymain)$ rise, coupled with $Apple(AAPL)$ s earnings report, which was lower than expected, which brought down the stock market and commodities.These are emergencies that no one can predict in advance. But it is predictable that the effects of these events will fade soon, DXY and UST10Y will return to the downward trajectory,

Uk bonds has showed a good trend up.. from a long term trend down.... time to improve... up. $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2302(10Ymain)$ $Micro 5-Year Yield - main 2302(5YYmain)$ $Micro 30-Year Yield - main 2302(30Ymain)$ GBP breaks its trend showing a correction on way.. for moment its short! $GBP/USD(GBPUSD.FOREX)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

5 things on what to do about the highest interest rate in 15 years?In a continued bid to tame decades-high inflation, the central bank may keep pushing rates higher next year, too, albeit at a more modest pace. On Wednesday the Fed Fund rate raised for the seventh time in a row, to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. That is the highest it’s been in 15 years.That, of course, means higher borrowing costs for consumers. But it also means your savings may actually start earning a little money after years of barely-there interest.Overcoming higher interest rates:• Bank savings: Shop around• Home loans: Lock in fixed rates now• Overall portfolio: Seek broad exposure and pricing power• Some stock plays: Commodities are a good hedge given the uncertainty• For bonds: Go shortThe rea

Us rates has show some weakness now and due to it we are opening a short position.$Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2211(10Ymain)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - Dec 2022(10Y2212)$ $Australian Dollar - Dec 2022(AUD2212)$

Uncle Sam is getting squeezed by higher borrowing costs of $31 trillion too. Not just the ordinary folks on their home mortgage payment and small business owners on their borrowings. • In 2022 According to CNN, fiscal 2022 alone, the federal government made $475 billion in net interest payments, up from $352 billion the prior year. For context, that’s more than the government spent on veterans’ benefits and transportation – combined. And it’s nearly as much as the $677 billion spent on education. • By 2025 or 2026 Federal interest payments could exceed the country’s entire defense budget, according to Moody’s Analytics. For context, defense spending stood at $767 billion in fiscal 2022. • Conclusion This time compared to 2008 is different. Then inflation at its highest was at 5.5%, today i

Your morning bite. A smaller-than-expected BOC hike raises hopes for slower rate hikes globally. Meta's results stink.Stocks: Microsoft and Alphabet earnings weighed on Wall Street last night. Meta's earnings  this morning is likely to extend that trend. lt posted weaker than expected results, with EPS coming in below the $1.86 estimate and at $1.64. Revenues declined, and revenue guidance was below expectations. The S&P500 fell 0.7% and the NASDAQ dropped 2.3% in cashtrade. SPI Futures are implying a 26 point lift for the ASX200 this morning.  $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$