Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti

English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? $美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$ $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c

Gold: The Short-Term Structure On September 28, with gold trading around $4,228.615, down approximately 0.06%, my short-term view was bearish. Central-bank gold purchases and concerns about U.S. government debt remained longer-term sources of support, but a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields were exerting more immediate pressure on gold.$微型10年美債收益率主連 2609(10Ymain)$ $微型30年美債收益率主連 2610(30Ymain)$ $30年美債主連 2612(ZBmain)$ $10年美債主連 2612(ZNmain)$ On the 30-minute chart, gold formed a swing high near 4,318, then made a series of lower high

Recently, movements in the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and commodities have drawn considerable attention from investors. In response to investor requests, Tiger organized an in-person discussion this month with traders who had shared strong historical returns, and invited me to take part. On September 19, I gave users in Hong Kong an in-person presentation on trading techniques titled “From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies: A Discussion of a 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return.” It was a substantive session. The presentation focused on methods and case studies, not specific investment advice. In this in-person session, I shared some of the ways I observe markets and use trading tools, centered on the theme “Finding Trends Through Macro Analysis, Managing Risk Through Trade-Level Decisio

Chinese leaders visited the United States last week. Even by the time the visit ended and the official readout was released, there were few concrete measures or signed agreements. Apart from the easing of trade tariffs that the market had widely anticipated, there was little of particular note. The lack of a major domestic publicity push around the visit’s outcomes is also telling. Clearly, Trump hopes to generate a series of positive developments ahead of the midterm elections to bolster his electoral prospects. In addition to the Chinese visit, there was news last week of U.S.–Iran talks, but that, too, amounted to more talk than action, with no tangible outcome yet. Any further impact on oil prices and inflation may therefore have to wait until after the midterms. For financial markets

A large 85,000 Bitcoin put order hit the market, while Gold’s defensive floor moved higher. Is the market about to turn? The option changes on September 22 show that open interest in Gold calls continued to expand. In Silver, traders maintained upside exposure at higher strikes while accelerating purchases of downside protection. In Bitcoin, however, new positions on both sides remained too small to be meaningful. This suggests that expectations for further upside in precious metals have not disappeared, but protection against pullbacks and volatility is becoming more expensive. Gold: Calls Still Dominate as Defensive Positioning Moves Higher Gold call open interest increased by a net 8,354 contracts, exceeding the 6,116-contract increase on the put side. Total call open interest stood at

The market has been choppy over the past two days, and short-term moves can easily disrupt one’s rhythm. I would rather lay out the key levels clearly and then assess the market’s reaction once prices reach them: for gold, the first question is whether a rebound will encounter resistance; for crude oil, the focus is on whether the low-level recovery can continue. U.S. Dollar Index: Firm Bias, but Guard Against a Pullback After a Spike The U.S. Dollar Index formed a large bullish candle with a relatively substantial real body yesterday, indicating that short-term bullish momentum remains in place. Today, watch how the index trades within the 100.6–101.6 range. The overall bias remains constructive, but a pullback after a move higher should also be kept in mind.