The foreign exchange market has been calm in the past few years. The large shock mode of the the US Dollar Index has caused most currencies to trade in a range mode. However, there are also outliers among them. The yen continues to fall and set a new historical low, but it is still not intervened by the central bank. What is the reason behind allowing the yen to fall?From the trend of the yen in CME group, it can be seen that the historic low has been moving down in the past few months, which also includes the macro environment where the Bank of Japan has begun to tighten. Looking forward, the Bank of Japan also briefly intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2022-2023, but the intensity was relatively limited, and the yen also rebounded slightly before sinking again.Obviously, from t

Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, the contradiction in risk appetite in the capital market has become increasingly prominent, and commodity prices have also entered a stage of high volatility.Taking gold as an example, the price of gold has experienced a correction after experiencing the "crazy growth" . On April 22 local time, COMEX gold futures for June delivery fell 3.01%, the largest one-day drop since June 2022.Two factors "suppress" precious metalsFor a long time, geopolitics has been the first factor affecting the prices of gold and silver. With the gradual escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the market's demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver has also increased simultaneously. Howeve

As speculated, news of the conflict between Israel and Iran has subsided, which has prompted a pullback in gold, and you may have to wait for a while to chase higher. For gold trading this year, the importance of finding a good time and a low position is relatively high, and it is not easy to chase ups and downs.The correction of gold With a long green line on Monday to determine a larger pullback/retracement time span, coupled with the more violent fall of silver (it has also been recommended to short silver and long gold to deal with this round of market), we expect gold to be short in the short term will not Reverse quickly.But how to judge the low point of the callback that everyone is more concerned about? First of all, it is certain that it is likely that it will be difficult for sho

📅 On April 1st, tensions flared as 🇮🇱 Israel targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus; 🇮🇷 Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles and drones on the night of April 13th to 14th, an event that caught 🌍 the world's attention. To prevent a spiral into a cycle of violence, Western governments issued 🔴 red alerts. An escalation into a full-scale regional conflict could have devastating global effects.Led by the United States, Western countries condemned Iran's actions. The international response varied:Turkey urged Iran to prevent further escalation; China adopted a policy of appeasement; 🇷🇺 the Russian Foreign Ministry called for "restraint" from all parties; and Syria, an ally, emphasized Iran's "right to self-defense."🌐📉 The Middle East's unrest has global implications, affecting capital

The situation in the Middle East has once again become the focus of the market in recent days, with some concerns about the conflict between Iran and Israel. Although both sides have shown signs of perseverance, it is more likely that there will be “big thunder, little rain”. At the same time, referring to the geopolitical conflicts and small-scale military operations that have occurred several times before, the financial market can basically digest the impact within a week, so short-term fluctuations are difficult to shake the market trend.In theory, gold and crude oil are naturally the most sensitive to this topic. Last Friday's rise and fall seem to have previewed the weekend's soap opera in advance: Compared with a real fight, it seems more cost-effective to make a tough statement to g

图片Last week, gold $Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ broke above $2,448.8 an ounce for the first time in its history, but has since retreated below $2,400. Still, $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ analysts raised their year-end target for gold to $2,700 from $2,300 previously, based on continued buying by emerging market central banks.The price of gold has risen more than 20% in the past two months.Some say it's all about hedging risks with the Middle East situation escalating and Iran and Israel sharpening their knives. Others blame it on the options market and the NYMEX.However, more people are confused about the skyrocketing gold price, an important reason is that the US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest r

Hong Kong stocks were flat last week, with the $HSI(HSI)$ dipping just 0.01%.On the news, the US March CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, a new high since September last year, and higher than the market's 3.4% expectation, dashing hopes of a June rate cut.Domestically, China's March CPI growth narrowed to 0.1%, down from 0.7% in the previous month. And after three months of gains, the CPI fell 1.0% month-on-month.In terms of sectors, $CHINA VANKE(02202)$ again burst the negative, following the cooperation company "whistleblowing", Vanke Jinan company general manager was taken away by the police for investigation, the stock price fell sharply, the entire industry has been affected:Despite the bad news, southbound

Driven by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, market concerns about the tense situation in the Middle East and the interruption of energy supplies such as oil, international crude oil once soared sharply. The picture shows the price trend of the May WTI crude oil futures contract, which is currently hovering at $86.35.PictureFrom the perspective of supply and demand, the sluggish demand has led to no large-scale destocking even though OPEC continued to cut production. However, U.S. crude oil took the opportunity to seize market share and increased production and exports on a large scale. The global crude oil supply is not tight. The rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to the geopolitical crisis and speculative buying under the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Looking ah

The bulls in the crude oil market that continued in the first quarter have helped the price return to the central axis level we defined. With the emergence of high pressure and the small deviation between US stocks and stock indexes, we expect that it will be more difficult for oil prices to go up. For low buy/long investments, now may be the time to at least partially lock in profits.At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, we introduced the composition of crude oil price range: above 95/100 is the level of selling crude oil reserves by the US government (Biden made clear), while below 70 US dollars is the level of buying back crude oil reserves. The 84 line in the middle of the two is defined as the central axis because of the obvious change of hands. Under the big shock m

Among overseas institutions, one of the banks optimistic about this year's international gold price is Bank of America, which maintains its expectation of $2400 per ounce. Currently, the market believes that the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rates and monetary policies on the international gold price is decreasing. In this situation, the rise in the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ and U.S. Treasury bond yields is unlikely to affect global gold purchasing demand, as central banks of various countries continue to diversify their foreign exchange reserves by purchasing gold.Will the gold $Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$

$Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ has been on a tear lately, reaching new highs. While this might sound positive, it could foreshadow some bumps in the road for the stock market. Here’s why. Gold Futures Gold is often seen as a safe haven during economic uncertainty. Investors flock to gold when they're worried about stocks, bonds, or the overall health of the economy. So, a rising gold price could signal that investors are growing anxious. When gold goes up, it becomes a more attractive investment compared to stocks. This can entice investors to move money out of stocks and into gold, potentially dampening the stock market's momentum. It's important to remember that correlation doesn't always equal causation. Just because gold is rising doesn't guar