On Friday night, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6–3 to overturn President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariff policy, ruling that it exceeded presidential authority. Because the decision had been widely anticipated, the market reaction was relatively muted, and U.S. equity indices even rebounded. However, Trump quickly voiced his dissatisfaction and announced a 15% global tariff (up from 10%) while launching a new investigation, stating, “We will be able to levy tariffs—more tariffs.” Since the additional tariff measures were announced over the weekend, Monday becomes the first real test of how sensitive the market is to this news. Overall, the tariff hike is a modest negative for U.S. equity indices, but for gold and silver it may serve as a catalyst for a renewed upswing. Will higher tariffs

Ahead of the holiday, I told everyone to temporarily consider taking profits on bullish positions in the U.S. equity market, and to look at building small long put option positions once the S&P moved below its 20-week moving average; alternatively, you could try buying VIX-long exposure on dips, using the VIX 20-day moving average as the stop level. From what we’ve seen so far, the VIX-long position should already be profitable： $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(VIXY)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$ $Volatility Index - main 2603(VIXmain)$ My strategy remains un

The market’s focus is gradually shifting from gold and silver to U.S. equities, but we want to remind everyone that around the coming Spring Festival period, U.S. equities are actually the asset most in need of bearish “protection.” After a sharp sell-off, the U.S. stock market has recently seen a modest rebound, which is technically normal. However, I would not take this small rebound as evidence that Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and U.S. equities have returned to a sustained upward trend. On the contrary, I prefer to interpret it this way: the volatility cycle in U.S. equities most likely has not finished, and this rebound looks more like a “covering” move within volatility rather than a signal that a trend has been confirmed. First signal: the DXY The first signal that U.S. equities may

Last Friday (January 31), gold and silver $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2603(QImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ suffered a historic crash—leaving countless traders wondering: Is this a golden “buy-the-dip” opportunity, or just the beginning of a deeper sell-off? Especially now that gold has started rebounding over the past couple of days, FOMO is kicking in hard. $黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2604(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2604(1OZmain)$ $富兰克林黄金及贵金属基金A (acc)USD(LU0496367417.USD)$ But i

After the sharp sell-off, the question weighing on many people right now is: can we buy the dip in gold and silver? If we do, are we looking at a short-term rebound—or a true reversal that resumes a longer-term uptrend? Let me start with the conclusion. In my view, the current rise in gold and silver should be treated only as a short-term rebound. Before prices rebound beyond a certain level, we should be extremely cautious: assume there will still be a C-wave selloff, and when the rebound peaks and shows signs of turning down, try again to build short positions. If the market keeps rising and moves above the entry level for the short, then stop out immediately. In short, before the market forms a clear bottoming structure, and before the risk event of Wash taking over as Fed Chair is defi

First, I want to share a screenshot from my previous analysis of silver and gold price action. In that earlier piece, I said silver’s short-term top—assuming the Fed did not turn more hawkish and there was no black-swan surge in the U.S. dollar—should be above 130, while gold could be headed above 5,000. A little over a week later, silver has already printed a new high, and gold has also surged well past 5,000. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

If there’s one clear focus in the futures market recently, it’s undoubtedly silver.But today, let’s take a step back from silver and zoom out for a broader perspective: Does the recent surge in gold and silver signal the start of a bull market in base metals? There’s a well-known commodity cycle that combines the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock with Jeremy Grantham’s concept of the “commodity supercycle launch sequence.” It goes like this: The early warning sign that an economic downturn is ending is a rise in gold and silver prices. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ Why? Because during late-stage slowdowns, real demand is weak and industrial commodities languish—so capital flows into safe-haven assets like precious metals. At the same time, central banks w

Earlier this Tuesday, a U.S. financial journalist asked President Donald Trump a question that has broadly worried Wall Street: “Are you concerned about the recent decline in the U.S. dollar?” Trump’s response surprised the market: he said no, he thought it was great, and that the dollar should be allowed to find its own level because that is “fair”—adding that if you look at China and Japan, they always want their currencies to depreciate. In market reporting, bullion rose as much as 1.3% on Wednesday after jumping 3.4% the day before (its biggest one-day gain since April), and Trump said he was not concerned about a weaker dollar even as the world’s premier reserve currency slid to its weakest level in nearly four years. This statement clearly reads as tacit approval—or even welcome—for

The U.S. dollar has been unusually weak recently, and multiple signs suggest this choppy weakness may persist for a while longer. The real turning point is likely to fall somewhere between March and April this year. First, China’s official USD/CNY fixing was set around 6.9 today—previously it had been in the 7-handle. This is the strongest official RMB fixing since 2023, and with the official rate now back below 7, it indicates the dollar has indeed remained weak lately. The central bank apparently does not see a problem with setting the fixing this strong。 $USD/CNH(USDCNH.FOREX)$ Second, Bloomberg reported that India again sold a large amount of U.S. Treasuries over the most recent month. India’s U.S. Treasury holdings have now fallen to

Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue